Zuck Won’t Tell Us That Time Spent Is Declining

Facebook or revenues are in. It is not a growth stock anymore, and now it might develop into value. Here is the earnings update.

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Zuck Won't Tell Us That Time Spent Is Declining

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  1. Hey Sven – I know you got a lot of stocks pitched to you – but I am really interested in Autozone and would love to hear your views? thanks for your efforts.

  2. Apple did add debt to fund buybacks, if Meta does the same, they get bonds for 3% and buyback stocks at 10% earnings , they profit 7% a year of the buybacks wich will add alot. I think it is good that they do it at these depressed share price. Keep the buybacks coming!

  3. I think the fears of it growing are mistaken. This year Apple stopped allowing Facebook to track users and that was cataclysmic to their revenues the last two quarters. It’s poor judgement to just watch a bar graph and assume a new Apple-like event is going to happen each year. If you mow a lawn, it doesn’t mean it didn’t grow, and won’t continue to grow.

  4. Sven, can you check the company Hotel Chocolat, a small cap stock on the LSE? They were overvalued for years, now they closed five stores in the US (they kept their online distribution) and the stock went down massively making it undervalued since its IPO 6-7 years ago.
    They have small stores that sell chocolates of great quality. They also have a successful online distribution, their reviews on trustpilot are excellent. I believe they can raise prices without problem making them a great hedge against inflation, they’ve done it at the past as well. An insider bought recently. What do you think?

  5. When comparing to extraordinary year 2021 it is obvious it looks like it is slowing. But compare it to 2019 or 2020 and you see the growth is still there. You can’t say it is slowing right now. Too soon to judge.

    1. @k4ir0s No companies had better financial years in 2021 due to inflation. Vast levels of money printing led to more money flooding through the economy, and therefore higher consumer spending. If anything, inflation is a significant headwind for companies -both in terms of growth, but also profitability and margins.

    2. @Zacarias Moreira Google and Facebook had better 2021 because of higher spending on advertising. Facts.

    3. @Monster Boomer Higher spending is not the same as inflation. Higher spending, quantitative easing and money printing all lead to inflation.

  6. Sven Internet never forgets. Could you provide the public performance of Your platform portfolios on yearly basis I mean 2019, 2020 ,2021, 2022 ? Which you unexpectedly closed because of “personal reasons”. Restart again and again, close an eyes on losses is not a value investing :-).

  7. The online advertising space should only continue to grow moving forward as companies move advertising budgets to online platforms. Additionally, online advertising does provide opportunities to small business to advertise according to their budgets which they could not have done in the past with such ease. I don’t see why so much pessimism.. advertisers will go where the audience is and given the vast amount of users on Meta owned platforms they are unlikely to avoid it, instead likely just allocate a smaller budget to the platforms in the case that it’s effectiveness declines

    1. that is problem, it seem the effectiveness is declining and the jump in prices hasn’t happened. Let’s see!

  8. I just read Adam Seessel’s book “Where the money is, value investing in the digital age” and realized that there is Value Investing 1.0 – 2.0 and 3.0
    Everything money is 1.0 – focus only on the numbers and nothing else. Sven is 2.0 as he is looking for defensive MOATs. 3.0 is the newest version which allows you to also evaluate fast growing software companies which currently undermine their true profit potential due to investments for future returns. Highly recommended for all to read this book. I think Sven will benefit a lot from it.

  9. And i wonder how much value they can turn W/A into (comments gets deleted if you say the name of the app). But there is like a couple billion people using it every single day to talk to all their friends and in some countries they already turned it into way more than just a chat app. You can use it to pay in some countries any order things like a pizza, or talk to you dentist to make an appointment etc.

  10. Can you do a ”buy and hold forever” or ”wide moat” list of companies? I remember you said BRK is a company that you will make a return just depending on the valuation how high your return will be. Since its an amazing company.

    Are there any more of these? I want to buy some companies that i can own and sleep without worrying for a second. Of course returns would be lower..

    1. @ExcuseYou I’ve been thinking about that but I’m not a huge fan of index investing. Yes returns have been great for the past 40-50 years but if you look back the snp500 didnt go anywhere for decades too. Like Sven says, if you buy the snp500 now then the return u should be happy with is the dividend for the next X years. Ofc you can dollar cost average the market every month but you can also do this with great companies since they are also going to go down in market downturns. Im just not comfortable putting big money in the snp 500 now at this price point. If you own 5 to 10 good companies you’re more likely to have a good amount of overvaluation at some point in the next 5 or 10 years too. I dont want my money to be stuck in the snp500 for the next 2 decades making 2% on dividends without any growth.

    2. @Max007 That’s fair and also echoes my sentiments. As a European investor I’m looking for exposure to the US markets through individual stocks like BRK.B and INTC atm. Out of curiosity, I selected 40 random dates from 1982 to 2012 in the S&P 500 and mapped the PE ratio at that time with the following 10yr annual return and found out nearly 70% of the variance in returns can be explained by the starting PE alone. Currently that return stands at some 6% plus a tiny yield.

      So yes, in exuberant times like these it’s worth it to look for value elsewhere but in my opinion the S&P 500 is a no-brainer when the combination of valuation and yield exceeds your required return, 10% in my case. For example the current PE of 21 should produce about a 6% annual return over the coming decade, so paired with a 4% div yield it would be a deal for me. All that to say indexing can be very useful if applied correctly imo, just some food for thought.

    3. @ExcuseYou you mean that the snp500 will deliver a 10% return for the next lets say 10 years? I think sven has videos on this and he talked more about 5% if u invest at the current price. I really don’t see the snp delivering 10% now. If dividend was about 4% now then i do buy it all day but it has to crash more than 50% to do so..

    4. @Max007 I said “Currently that return stands at some 6% plus a tiny yield” with the exact yield being 1.69%, so the current nominal return would be 7.69%. Average inflation during the last decade was around 2.4% in the US, giving us a *real return of 5.29%* , according to my model. I said *IF* the current dividend yield was 4%, we would be at 10% return, but obviously it’s not. Also I should have specified that I was not adjusting for inflation, Sven was probably talking about real returns. Hope that clears it up.

    5. @ExcuseYou yes I understand and it makes sense. I would be happy with a 7,6% return tbh but I have like 80% cash now (I’m a new investor) and I did save a lot for the last 10 years. I’m just afraid if I put it all into the snp right now and we see a crash and then it taking 10 years to even go at the same level as we are now. Then returns would be great after those 10-15 years probably but idk, with rates going up and all. What would you do? Whats ur thoughts on the market going forward next couple years?

    1. daytrader portfolio using stopp loss and chart technique, that’s why he likes to show price developments in his videos.

  11. I stopped taking these videos seriously after seeing an analysis of a stock that I’m very well versed with. It made me wonder if the research (if any but I seriously doubt it) is so off what’s the point allocating cycles to this channel. The fundamental concept videos are good but the analysis videos leave a lot to be desired. I don’t have a problem with an investment/trading approach adopted by someone, but if theory and practice don’t match there is a serious problem. Sven constantly preaches about having a “long term” horizon but the actual investment advice is far from long term. To see proof of my point, one can check out previous analyses videos of particular stocks and notice the flip-flops in outlook in a very short timespan. The advice and reasoning perfectly matches that of “analysts” but Sven does not like to be labelled as one, which I find insincere. My point is quite simple, your approach may work and lead to success, but don’t try and equate it with the “buy and hold” approach of the super investors like Buffett/Munger. There is no shame in adopting and sharing a distinct investment approach (especially if it works :)) but being honest about it will go a long way with the viewers.

    1. @annoying this is literally what he wrote “I am moving this year (for the last time in my life likely), I have to pay out the money, pay taxes and then restart in 2023″…

    2. @gorackgorack I think that if you’ll need the money in the next 5 years for a house or childrens college etc. it has no place being in the stock market. I’d imagine this will hurt Svens credibility and rightly so. I’d say he can say goodbye to your 700 a year.

    3. @annoying Definitely! I will try to ask for a refund as well but seeing how sketchy he is with his answers, I have no real hope for it.

      I hope more people will know about his true behavior and be more careful about him. He will surely try to speak himself out of this in his videos and he is good at marketing so he may even succeed with some folks…

    4. thanks for the comment, if you don’t like me, that is fine, all the best and all is well!

    5. @annoying Sure, he can change his opinion on investments but I keep returning to my point about consistency in an investment thesis, which I don’t see here. Comparing META with INTC, another company he is (or at least was till recently) bullish on is in a similarly tough situation. One could argue INTC has a tougher road ahead as it’s competitor AMD has physical products that are both cheaper and better. In the case of META there is no evidence conclusively pointing to a competitor having leap frogged it. I find it hard to believe META has fallen so far behind it can’t compete anymore. While the challenge to the advertising industry is real, one must also admit it’s something that impacts all it’s players and not just one business. History shows in such situations the stronger players with moats (network effect in the case of META) emerge much stronger at the other end. I therefore find the utlra pessimistic outlook quite strange and inconsistent with the INTC thesis. We could debate this all day but my limited point is at a more fundamental level about theory and practice. Finally, I presume the public channel is used as a means to attract subscribers for the research platform, so I expect the content to be a reasonably accurate reflection of the “real deal” on the platform. I find contradictions on this platform itself and if a movie trailer doesn’t appeal to someone, he/she is less likely to go watch the movie.

  12. Facebook still does a lot that other platforms simply do not have the capability for. I understand the loss of time spent on the app but I don’t see it dying unless a similar platform emerges

    1. What are you talking about? What does it do others can’t. They are making a cartoon game. Zuck has lost his mind.

    2. @TheBooban talking about Facebook. You can’t get information about local businesses, connect with local community members, private groups, plan events, list apartments for rent, etc the same way with other platforms

    3. thanks for sharing, it has a strong position, but also everybody is after it!

  13. In my opinion it is not fair to judge the growth of this business taking as a reference the pandemic years. It can’t be define as a declining company based only in a couple quarters. They are talking about the competition since the inception because the authorities are always pointing out their supremacy in the social media sector. The growth will continue. TikTok is only absorbing a segment with less monetization while Meta adapt the strategy to capture that audience again through Instagram. In my view the market is wrong. Microsoft also reach a PE of 9 some years ago based on a similar bluff.

  14. I agree with most of the analysis but Meta as a company has so much potential to grow from here. If you worked in tech industry before you would know how hard it is to build system that can scale like FB||Insta||WhatsApp||Messenger (billion user scale). They proved that they can build scalable system and maintain them. Meta has ability to develop and deploy software much quicker than any other companies. Also, Meta developed web frameworks like React and GraphQL are so popular and lots of companies implemented their web solution with it. I don’t doubt about their engineering capabilities. I think once they have really good leaders who can lead product side, they would be flying.

    1. I have some doubts about Meta too. For instance, making too heavy investments into Metaverse where we still cannot see how this would generate good investment return back. I wanted them to focus their investments into cloud or AI products instead which I think they have engineering capabilities to do so and would be more profitable than Metaverse in my opinion. Time will tell as you said look forward to seeing how they do in the future.

  15. Sven is addressing this company at the margin and he’s right. The big growth years are done because meta and alphabet have already carved up the market. Problem for meta unlike alphabet is that meta is much more impacted by negstive demographics. Younger people don’t care about it.

  16. Facebook well never “rule over” the metaverse. If the metaverse will be a thing in the further, than it will come from the gaming industry. Facebook will never make a successful “game”.

  17. Dr Sven looking more young and fresh than years ago, maybe that active lifestyle paying value-style dividends too 🚵 ✌️

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