Miami Real estate is growing, bitcoin too and stocks are not far from that. The so called whatever bubble is certainly here, however what will be the repercussions is still to be seen. We as investor can just attempt to prevent those.
Vulnerable, robust or antifragile video –
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Hey Sven, do you agree with bill ackman that the fed will have to lower interest rates in 2024 when the low interest rates become due and companies have to refinance?
The only reason the fed will lower rates is if we see a recession. So let’s hope so
@@maxjames00077 If you’re hoping for a recession, you’re doing life wrong.
@@MrAnarchocapitalistwhy? It is the greatest opportunity to buy cheap assets. Recession is a normal part of economic cycle. Absence of recession is not a good thing
@@MrAnarchocapitalist nope, means cheap buying opportunities
IMHO Bubble is an understatement.
So taking that into consideration we are better of to short the market right?
No because you don’t know when it’s going to pop. It’s best to invest based on fundamentals. Companies that are doing well but are cheap now with a margin of safety. The one that will survive a crash so you can buy more when the crash arises.
@@PonderDuke According to the video, nothing is cheap. Supposedly it’s an “everything bubble.”
For example you can put your money in savings account and when crash happens you can buy cheap assets. The risk with shorting is timing. You may lose a lot of money before crash happens. I was wondering about bear/short ETFs. Are they a good option? Would be great if someone knows
Only the best of the best should short stocks. That’s probably not you.
Nobody can short the market
its not a bubble, but the markets have priced in the ideal solution that inflation will keep decreasing and interest rates will be cut early-mid 2024. They have also overpriced this situation. If this doesnt occur, the markets will suffer, but in general, i think the first half of 2024 will be poor for equities since the economy will slow due to high prolonged rates.
It seems like a bubble to me. The ideal situation is never going to happen so it’s a bubble. You need the worst scenario prices for the best opportunities.
Depends on how you define ‘bubble’.
Thanks for sharing!
Hi Sven, what’s your thoughts on Kering SA? strong fondamentals, great luxury brands, family owned business, fairly priced at these leveles. hope you will consider it in one of your next videos. best regards
Hello Sven,
thanks for your video. It was long time sinxce the last CRASH CRASH CRASH CRASH video. Enjoyed it.
:-)))
The market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent – John Maynard Keynes. It is very hard to time the market and the direction of the economy. Focus on companies you understand and buy them when they valuations look cheapish relative to their growth outlooks.
This is cheap talk. Anybody can say stuff like this. Companies you understand? Buy them when valulation look cheapish ? What companies can you truly understand ?? No one can. How do you know if the valuation look cheapiest ? You have no idea. Stop saying these stupid things. We have no idea in next 10 year there is going to be raging bull market. That’s very possible. We have no idea.
It is indeed very hard to time markets. The overwhelming consensus view is to never do it. This is what I did anyway, and nearly doubled my money out of COVID. One of the reasons why this is so hard, is it requires extreme patience. Something most people don’t have.
Right now market bets on rate cut, but I think they will surprise when fed does minor cut and keep high rate for longer, which is fed said all the time but nobodycare.
The reason to keep high rate because USA will print and borrow more money, to keep up business grow, especially when this election year.
Except the Republicans are going to stop that, or at least throw up huge roadblocks.
precarious situation which fits with so much of the regretable things happening in this era – only takes a left of field shock or a series of moderate shocks to start the unravelling
I wish real estate would crash, but I doubt it.
The vulnerability in your voice as you narrate adds a personal touch to the video. It’s like sharing a piece of your soul with the audience.
Thanks
Great video! What about the Chinese stock market? They are trading pretty low, but their economy seems bad.
Us growing 1%, China 4%! Yes, very bad!
There are cycles where strong growth upswing driven by debt-finance real estate and other fixed assets spending is followed by a downswing driven by a debt-challenged slowdown in demand. While this is more typical in emerging economies, makes me wonder if whether what’s happening in Florida could have similar consequences.
well, my stocks are not in a bubble! They are in a slump! So I am lucky.
Actually, yes!
@@Value-Investing yes, good businesses with stable dividends are cheaper than they were a year ago!
Sven, in regards to S&P500 I think you forgot to mention the ammount of buybacks and money spent on R&D… this dividend ratio doesnt matter that much these days, if it did – LSE would be the best in terms of performance and it’s not
The buybacks should push the div higher, but those aren’t
@@Value-Investing Why? Care to elaborate on this topic? I am always interested to see your view.
Who cares if it pops or not, it eventually will and the investor will lose any progress he/she gained. Overpriced is overpriced, no need to look at crystal balls and time the market. Great companies at fair prices will outperform regardless of a crash.
Yet great companies at great prices might still get cut in half.
Downs are normal, the important is to have more value
@@willnitschke so just buy more.
USA has a massive real estate market some 380+- metro areas so it is like all of Europe in 1 country. A great example is that Los Angeles had built too many houses in 1990s and had a multi year slowdown in prices some even call it a crash but nationally this was not even felt at all and prices were going up during that time. Even in 2008 some US metro grew in price. However one key item is that US inventory of homes for sale already in 2003-2004 was rising above the trend and totally exploded in 2006-2007 and it is amazing that so few people called the coming crash. Inventory went from under 2 million to over 4 million so around 2x. However since 2018 the US inventory has been below trend totally crashing down in 2020 with COVID and has yet to recover only rising very slightly. No idea what is coming next, either US somehow rebounds in housing inventory by higher rates for longer or a recession otherwise housing will be in a pressure cooker. Time will tell I guess.
Thanks for sharing
Am i missing something? Circa USD 300k for Miami real estate in 2007 is now circa USD 475,00 in 2024 when adjusted for inflation. That would suggest real values have done nothing other than match inflation
That is exactly that, but we the environment changed, real values go down
@@Value-Investing interesting okay. So the market got frothy in 2007 then collapsed from USD 310k to USD 185k so
It’s only actually returned to the real 2007 value 17 years later 😳
When I look at the chart of Miami real estate and how your friend had to sell and lost $600000, it speaks of how the real rich win. The real rich did not have to sell, he waited patiently and when it bottomed he bought more. Same disaster different results. Think about it. This is so hard to do for Joe Average who has to put food on the table and worked so hard for that money in the first place.
The company feel comfortable adjusting their spending by laying off tens of thousands of worker in a month. Cutting dividends, cutting salary and benefits. Now that they have these new cost cutting tools, they aren’t worry about any inflation or interest hike, so they are going back to their previous exuberance