Where to invest in 2024? Here is a 10 possession classes introduction.
0:00 Property Classes
0:15 Stocks
4:17 Bonds
5:45 Gold
9:07 Crypto
10:49 Realty
14:18 REITs
14:56 Hedges
17:36 Land
18:07 Products
21:24 Emerging
23:03 Alternatives
24:02 Diversification
24:50 Conclusion
Discussed vids:
Research study Platform
REITs
Spitznagel 1
Spitznagel 2
Sibanye
Lithium
FMC
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Thanks, Sven! Happy and prosperous New Year to you!
Deeper dive in Bonds! Please !
Yes to bonds teaching. What about buffer etf’s?
Real estate in Europe is interesting but only lock in the interest rate for 5 years.
I am 15% of my portfolio invested in 2-3 year corporate bonds with high certainty cash flows and backed with assets. You can get around 9-10%
Most investors don’t buy individual bonds – they buy bond funds/ETFs. The ETFs I have looked at pay 1.5% to 2.5% which is not so great in a 5% environment.
Thanks for this broad overview! Merry Christmas and a happy new year.
I also noticed that real estate and US stocks are in bubble territory. You can relate this to the net international investment position of the US (which is deeply negative).
When inflation is between 1.25% and 7.1% gold indeed tends to be a little drag on the performance of a portfolio. However, when inflation is below 1.25% or above 7.1% gold tends to actually enhance the performance of a portfolio. Data suggests that a 15% weighting in gold basically makes an otherwise stock/bond portfolio indifferent to inflation with the drag on performance being negligible (due to annual rebalancing), while at the same time reducing the volatility and maximum drawdown of a portfolio. Based on data going back 50 years.
By the way, if you measure the fair value of gold by comparing it to global nominal GDP (with which the correlation is about 0.75), gold is only slightly overvalued.
Bitcoin (not crypto, as only Bitcoin is truly decentralized) could become an asset class, in my opinion. For me, the risk/reward of a non-zero position is too good to pass.
Thanks for the reminder about aluminum. Had completely forgotten about the glut the last year, perhaps it’s time to look at some automotive contract suppliers. For two reasons, not a lot of cars being sold in recession and there’s plenty of aluminum details in a car. Should be criteria enough for bargainhunting
Great channel Sven, keep up the good work. But we can´t just compare 2009 with 2023, things have changed over the decade. Do you think that the money printing or the longterm cheap money policy will stop in 2024 with all the needed debt refinancing the next years? The worst crisis for the economy (covid) with a global shutdown hit the sp500 just 30-40 days to levels around 2.5k, everything (re)covered till now. I am not sure if you are losing while waiting until valuations come back down. I don´t want to miss 70% upside while waiting for a potential 20-40% drop from levels which are 70/100/150% higher. I think the right strategy is “buying good companies not at any price but keep buying and DCA´ing” when you can withstand red colors in your portfolio. Hard times ahead of us but if you are on the long run, keep buying since we are in the biggest Tech- and Fin-Transformation since the last 30 years when the internet went live.
I just wrote a report for my work and released a youtube short about why bonds seem like they’re about to enter a multi-year bull market.
Been a long time fan of yours and it’s cool to see that you’re seeing what I’m seeing in that space.
26 minutes well spent. Thank you, Sven
Thanks for the very interesting content as usual, Sven!
I’d like you to dig a bit deeper into why you think taking a mortgage after 2008 was a bargain because of low interest rates. We were paying less for the monthly payment, agreed.
However, the prices skyrocketed as for your own admission in the video, so we would all simply be able to pay more, even if on a wider timeframe, in reality.
From an economic / valuation point of view your yield would have been terrible, especially if interest rates are going to stay higher for longer now.
Happy to hear your thoughts and Merry Christmas to everyone!
Question about the bonds. If market is pricing in 6 rate cut next year – does it mean that in case of delivering 3 rate cuts the price of TLT will go down?
Great rational overview 👌
Hey Sven, I would appreciate if you could make a video with a deeper dive into bonds! Thanks again!
-1.2% in the next 7 years would be great and is the best scenario for me! will pump my portfolio with a US large etf. After 7 years the party can begin🚀
Thank you very much for another great video 🙂
Amazing Video. He generally makes small videos on a daily basis which are good short overview of a stock or a sector. But once in a week or two produces a gems like these which are amazing from a learning point of view
@Sven carlin Yep I agree on bonds for 2024 I have a large position into TLT bonds haven’t been that cheap for a long time and the market has started to price in rate cuts, pushing up bond prices
I would really appreciate a deeper dive into bonds!