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Thanks!
Agree
Market caps are just too high. US companies are worth more than entire countries now, but the companies don’t have anything new to offer. How many gadgets in our iphones do we need? How many ai chatbots? In the end of the day, the inventions of the past 10 years have been a busy, and nothing like the telephone, automobile, and similar things
The 2 have nothing to do with each other, they don’t have to offer anything new to make money. Coke hasnt offered anything new since it’s inception, coke is coke, however they still make a lot of money.
The companies are worth more than countries because they have more money and power than some countries lol. A company like Meta or Google could completely destroy some countries from the inside out if they wanted to, one could argue they already have/do.
good point!
“Market caps are just too high. US companies are worth more than entire countries now,”
Ok, and….
Many companies based in the USA that are worth more than entire countries are also selling products and goods around the globe while some of the smaller market cap countries aren’t. Some are run by dictators that steal from their own people and keep them in poverty.
Finally – those companies are literally generating huge amounts of revenue and creating wealth for millions of people (direct stock owners and holders of ETFs, mutual funds, pension plans etc that hold shares) while some countries just don’t have a GDP that can rival some of the largest companies on the planet.
There is also nothing wrong with huge companies as long as trade with them is not forced or coerced. Nobody forces you to buy an iPhone; Nvidia data center servers, gpus, AI hardware etc; Microsoft’s games, Xbox units, their online office tools or other software, team / project management tools, etc.
The flat years are when most opportunities present themselves. They are also great periods for accumulating shares over time…. My main problem, again, is 30% tax on US earned dividends for Foreign Nationals. That makes me a very stringent person with regards to what yields are reasonable.
thanks for sharing
Don’t know where you are located, but have you ever heard of the W-8BEN form? With this you can reduce the tax on US dividends to 15%. Some brokers like IBKR allow you to fill in the form online so there is no paperwork for you.
@@TheScaryGermanGuy Hi, thanks for the message. I am aware and filled a W-8BEN form. I am a Brazilian citizen. When I opened my account with the US brokerage firm, the form was one of the pre-requisites. It must have something to do with tax bilateral treaties between the US and Brazil. When I file my annual tax returns in Brazil I can offset part of those taxes paid in the US against the taxes I pay in Brazil (difference from 30% to 27,5%) and get those 2,5% as tax refund here.
@@theodoroseidler7072I am living in Poland. I pay 15% in both (for selling a stock and its dividends) it cames from USA. But in Brazil till 27% in bounds, also we do not pay tax on dividends or till 20k (in reais for selling a stocks). But Poland will make me pay 15% for these not paid stuff in Brazil anyway. In suma, maybe I get tax return. But probably I will die in 15% of everything
It is very hard to predict the market. I think you should always monthly dip feed into the total market index on top of whatever strategies you want to pursue.
thanks for sharing
One idea would be to buy Berkshire and let Buffett use his superior 15% tax bracket and reinvesting skill to compound for me and live off of capital gains 🙂
yes, the returns will depend on the price you pay for BRK
@@Value-Investing yes! Like any value investing strategy.
@@theodoroseidler7072 So what would a good price be? I bought several shares of BRK/B around $200 before Covid, but the stock has been moving too slow in recent years…
As much as I want to agree, Buffet is hoarding cash because he knows the liabilities from climate change costs on his insurance will be huge in next few years and getting worse.
No amateur investor beats vwce or sp500 long term. If you want to be active buy best active value investlng company Berkshire. Big returns with no work and no taxes in my country after 1 year
good day Sven
good day!
Do a review on NN group: good div, low pe. I on it!
I am not a specialist on insurance 🙁
Bonds were good during petrodollar. That is coming to an end.
that is true, but keep in mind this is 3 months
Thanks for the video, Sven.
Why do Buffet and I assume other investors invest in US Treasuries instead of the Money Market?
Avoiding any structured products!! There is aleays additional counterparty risk
@@Value-Investing You speak French to me, 🙂 but thanks.
A pe shiller that high is a rare event, and hard to say with high confidence that the outcome will be that way.
If you put it into China, your stocks may be confiscated.
Confidence and investing would be a great topic!
@@Value-Investing Communism and investing would be a great topic too! 😁
Dividends, coupons, buybacks.
Thank you for another great video, Dr. !
I would argue that, in regards to the 1952-1982 and 1964-1994 periods, we have an advantage over the people who lived back then, which is that today there are many ETFs that allow us betting against the market. I do understand, nonetheless, that going short on the market is not value investing, even if you use the same mental process to value the market as a whole.
🗽 For these flat stonk-years we hold some gold… 🤨
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can you review the rotation into to small caps that started last week. Typically when the fed starts cutting rates small caps have outperformed over the next 12 to 18 months on a historical basis/ thanks
Thanks Sven!
Sven can you take a look at BMY. its down 50% since 2022. Typical stalwart stock with 6% dividend yield. Issues being the large debt and no/slow sales growth (turnover from legacy to new drugs). Guidance for 2024 was previously 7.1-7.4 non GAAP EPS was recently updated to $.4 – $.7 due to impairments and acquisitions… FCF/share ~ 6$ =~ 15% FCF yield.
There is only a flat market if valuation multiples fall in the same speed or faster than earnings grow.
Great video yet again, but how would you invest with you pay 25% dividend tax (in the Netherlands). We have no capital gains taxes (yet), but I like my dividends coming in. A 6% dividend with a 25% tax is kinda hard or am I wrong?
As a great investidor said about Brasil: we have crisis every 2, three years and companies repasses inflation. We also pay a lot of dividends compared with other countries. So why I would put my money in USA? And I do agree. Although we have inflation and our money is highly dependent on how USA goes, usually we lose. This is passed over to the clients. And if you wait the peak of the dólar to put and the bottom of the dólar to take… 🤯 also, we have one of the highest righ return for government bounds. Because of the risk of money lose values. I would say: diversify. But remember emerging countries have a lot of room to grow. I am starting investing, slowly, and I can see a lot of my mistakes. For the moment I can really understand why Warren Buffett is choosing to wait!
I always wonder if showing charts with a logarithmic scale on the y-axis are a good representation of what I’m looking for. I assume most people know an exponential function on a logarithmic scale will show as a linear function. But I often assume wrong when it concerns knowledge of other people. I think you should have at least mentioned it. Some days ago I watched a video about how to know when a market crash is coming, and the theory was that before a crash the manner in which news is interpreted is skewed. Bad news is interpreted as good news and as a result stocks go up. Until a point is reached when bad news is interpreted as bad news and then the whole thing comes down. That is kind of in line with worsening fundamentals and stocks going up.