We Are All In A Recession 2023!

An economic downturn is here, no matter what they tell you!

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6 Comments

  1. 2.2% is GDP growth. If government spending didn’t increase by 2 trillion since last year this is bogus. For this reasoning to make any sense government spending must have increased significantly regardless of deficit from 2022 to 2023. Government spending actually decreased from 2022 to 2023 only the deficit increased. So this is borderline misinformation.

    1. I dont understand. The way i see it is like this: regardless of any increase or decrease in gov’t spending the snapshot is telling us that if you substract the money borrowed there is negative growth. Looking forward to read your reply.

    2. Trying to learn here.
      So what you are saying is that the economy includes the financed government spending.
      Sven is saying that it doesn’t – because if you consider where the government spending comes from, it is borrowed.

      Do I have your position correct?

    3. @Alejandro Herrera This is a terrible assumption because GDP growth measures yoy changes. So if government spending didn’t increases it has no real influence on GDP growth. If the government would suddenly spend a lot less than for a long time prior that would be a momentary decrease in GDP growth but it still barely influences economic activity and has very little to do with a recession. If we assume the government is not insane and makes such drastic changes and would decrease government spending over time to battle the deficit this would have no meaningful influence on GDP. These are tricks to paint a narrative in my opinion like focusing on deficit instead of spending which the government has little influence over and assuming a very extreme change in the most damaging time for something that is not new at all. Let’s say it like this if US got rid of the deficit entirely in a year that argument could have been made for any year of the last 20 years and that would make no sense at all so why make the argument now when everyone is very bearish.

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