When it comes to worth investing, the very first belief one should have is that the marketplace is irrational.
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Great video Sven, as always! I would be interested in knowing your opinion about match group (MTCH), looks like great value to me. Thanks!
I bought aapl when you wrote that article, because you wrote that article, only just sold 20%, thanks a lot Sven
where did u read the article?
@@zenastronomy Seeking alpha maybe, cant remember, i had no idea who he was then
The commenter at 0:08 makes sense from a valuation / revenue perspective. But fails to account for the risk of waking up one day and foreign investors are sanctioned and thus no longer owners.
A concept in value investing is asymmetric risk, “if I win I win big, if I lose I don’t lose much”. Chinese equities don’t fit that criteria because there is a risk of 100% downside
what would remain of APPL operations if Xi decides to shut them down one day? sounds exactly like the same risk… at least TSLA has factories in other countries
“Never risk permanent loss of capital” – Warren Buffett and many others
Chinese equities do not compensate you for the risk you take. It is similar to sectorial risks. Better spread your low PE holdings across the globe.
You can mix U.S. stocks that have no exposure to China with Chinese stocks,
which can provide a better risk-to-reward ratio than investing in U.S. companies heavily reliant on the Chinese market.
In my portfolio, 25% are Chinese stocks, while the remaining 75% are companies with minimal or no China business.
This setup caps my maximum potential loss at roughly 30%.
On the other hand, if you invest in stocks like AMD, Apple, Tesla, … you could experience similar losses.
However, my stock mix is much more attractively valued because the market has already factored in the China risk more heavily.
@@m4758406 like I said, the risk is not asymmetric. Therefore not a value play.
Exposure to the Chinese economy isn’t the problem. It’s about where the business is registered and whose regulators oversee it.
If apple got pushed out of China and lost 20% of their revenue, the show would go on.
If foreign investors got pushed out of Alibaba, like what happened in Russia. It’s equivalent to bankruptcy from an investors standpoint. Even if the economics of the business are good
Great observation! Thank you Sven.
Hi Sven, do you think the dividend yield is that good of an argument when weighing out your investing opportunities (like your example of Apple vs. CK) when dividends are taxed as income and therefore I lose around 15% of that yield? That is a big part that goes bye-bye and never comes back again and it’ll also be unavailable for further investing, which reduces the compounding effect overall.
For the past 2 years I have been watching your videos Sven. All this time occasionally you upload videos about how the market is crazy and overpriced, and how it will soon drop..
In the meantime you did some stocks analysis (ACOMO, ALTM) and stated these are good for value investing… but the result is exactly the opposite – S&P, Nasdaq went way up, and your mentioned stocks lost how much???
Maybe it is time to accept that your expectations works only on paper but not in reality.
These are the undeniable facts. The rest are words, analysis, complaints of those who are out of the market: “It is the market that is wrong, I’m right!” If the goal of investing is to be right, it may well be. I thought it was making money
Where were you in 2022 ? 😅 lots of cheap stocks back then
Hi Sven, I love your channel and a longterm subscriber , could you do european Tech Stocks?
Thank you. That was the perfect !!! headline today 😀 😀 😀 …
WP Carey Video please Sven!
Im a value investor: bought Berkshire in 2020, rheinmetall in 2022, meta in 2022, Bawag in 2023 and also palantir in 2023, applovin in 2022, supermicro Computer in early 2023, dell in 2023, transmedics in 2024, hims in 2024, also nutrien / mosaic and ADM in 2024. now im going from hype to conservative Investments
For me all rational as a value investor to sell many stocks now and be happy about my wins and go on vacation 😅
Sven, I am a big Asia bull, half of my portfolio is China. But, one cannot compare CK with Apple. Apple has a very high ROIC, CK does not. Without growth, it means nothing for Apple, but even a modest growth (5%) means a lot regarding value creation. Curious to hear your thoughts on this.
your view on CE now?
Hi sven in germany we have a saying : “The dumpest Farmers have the biggest potatos”
But i prefer Value investing in the long run. Bec most dump Farmers getting out of business likeley in the long run.
What’s irrational is to underestimate the political risk in China. Especially after so many value investors saw their investments in Russia go to zero and some got lucky and sold before that. But they were still taking a huge risk to invest in Russia.
The political risk is overestimated, IMO. I own some Chinese ADRs and if something really bad happens (less likely than many people think), I will convert them to HK.
Chinese politics are very different from Russia, I think Xi is going to find a way to work with USA, the economic pressure weights on politics too much.
2:57 More precise: we got COVID.
Thank you👍
China is not democratic country and has become even more autocratic in recent years. You can wake up one morning with value of your investments zero if they decide to confiscate foreign investments or for example invade Taiwan. After 2014 a lot of people were saying that Russia is great investment. As for CK Hutchison it is conglomerate of business that you would expect to trade at low PE, telecom, infrastructure, retail and ports are at risk of global trade war so naturally can expect slightly lower PE, perhaps PE is slightly lower but hardly a great business.
yea I was confused. TSLA went up 40% in 5 days
Nothing changed in their fundamentals.
Very tempted to buy but I resist. It makes no sense.
It does feel sad that we weren’t invited to Trump’s rally party though…
Wow, comparing Apple to CK Hutchinson to proof your point is really bad comparison. If you took Meta and Tencent that would make some sort of sense. Your analysis is really becoming more of a rant against the market.
You had solid entry prices in Meta and Amazon in 2022/23 for example. I can’t remember if you also owned Alphabet. But you sold them very early because of a risk/reward reasons. By the time and now I did not understand it. You do not emphasize the Debt/Ebit or Debt/Ebitda ratios in any of your companies you recommended lately. Most of the time they are highly levered, have a huge asset base and declining margins. These are simply not quality businesses. And talking about building a portfolio for decades when these companies returned way less than the broader market and their cycles only last for fey years doesn’t make sense at all.
What happened to your YouTube portfolio? Where are the updates?
When US stocks will crash people will never get money back it will hurt badly. Question is when, sooner than later now.