Timing The Market or Timing MarketS? (Lump Sum vs. Waiting)

timing the market is a typical question when buying stocks. I don't believe anyone has the response to the concern whether it is better to invest all your cash simultaneously or it is much better to wait because no one knows the future. So, the essential concern is what is the best technique for you, if used well, all can do excellent.

DCA vs SWELLING AMOUNT

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Timing The Market or Timing MarketS? (Lump Sum vs. Waiting)

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46 Comments

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  1. I sometimes go from 100% invested to 90% or 80%, I currently have 13% cash – gonna do some traveling this year!

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  2. Thanks Sven. Great information. Very applicable to my (& everyone’s) life situation. I’m a US baby boomer, lucky to have ridden the S&P500 wave since the late 1980’s, 100% in stocks. Since 2018 though, I moved 25% to cash, to sleep better at night. Currently enjoying around 4% interest in short term TBills (like Warren), with that cash. Rather than reinvesting the interest in more TBills though, I may instead, join your platform, and invest monthly in individual stocks. Thanks again, for the education and another outstanding video.

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  3. Very important to remember “All In” for one person = All net worth in the stock market, “All In” for another could be 5% of my net worth that i allocate to stock purchases is fully invested

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  4. I am currently at 60% cash because i have luckily accrued some significant cash from my job. I also took about a year to learn the art/science of investing by reading 10+ books (therefore i was not investing actively at that time). I want to have less of a cash position, but I dont want to be too heavily invested in any one stock while I am newer to the trade. Hopefully more opportunities are to come in 2023!

    1. @Anand Kumar Beating the Street, One up on Wall Street, The Intelligent Investor, Security Analysis, You can be a stock market genius, Contrarian Investment Strategies, The Little Book that Beats the market, the little book of value investing, The Acquirer’s Multiple, The Warren Buffet Way, and countless podcasts/reputable YouTube channels like Sven here. It was a lot of work reading all the books, but I feel like I at least have somewhat of an understanding of investing. Applying the skills is a whole other thing. The books I really liked were Contrarian Investment Strategies, One Up On Wall Street, and The Acquirer’s Multiple.

    2. @Drew Shegda  thanks for sharing and I can relate to each and every word you wrote. I have read many of these and some plan to read in near future. I can’t agree more when you said – application is totally different and that’s the reality. Hope to get better with each passing day

    3. @Anand Kumar  yeah, I feel myself within this first year making some mistakes of catching a falling knife. Luckily, I don’t trust myself enough to put any large sums of money into one company. Investing is certainly humbling and I as well hope to get better with each day! Best of luck to you and your journey!

    4. @Drew Shegda  Yes, a reasonable amount of diversification would help us. This is my learning of the past 3 years as well. I encourage you to read 2 classics to build on the knowledge you already have accumulated – poor Charlie almanac and those 50 years of letters from Buffett. I did that last year and all I can say is, I was swimming in the ocean of value investing all along 😀

    5. @Anand Kumar oh I heard great things about both of those readings. I have really wanted to read the Warren Buffet letters. I appreciate the advice

  5. if you are looking for bargains to sell as soon as they come back to their average value, I think it’s good to have always a lot of cash available. Instead if you find an exceptional company to hold for many years, maybe it’s better to go all in. This is the factor between the two strategies for me

  6. *Love the chess themse for strategy.* 👌

    To my mind, I wanna be invested in almost everything while keeping some cash on the side for contingencies.

    I do take some risks – like betting on Tesla and even cryptos. I try to mostly go for value and dividends. Then, I like to have some bonds and cash cushions. *That way I sleep better at night.*

  7. During market times like this I always come back to what Buffet said. We have 20 punchcards for investing or we can wait for the perfect pitch.

    Prices look good compared to last year but nothing in my circle of competence is cheap enough for a good enough margin of safety

  8. Hey Sven, thank you for this. I always lean towards Lynch or Buffet strategy but lately it has been Buffet. Then you have M. Burry strategy which is even more than Klarmans cash I assume hehe

    1. i think all works well, you just need to see what is it that you can work with!

  9. Great video. I struggle with this. I aim for anywhere between 8-15% cash position at all times. Helps me stay mostly invested at all times while always having some dry powder for opportunities.

  10. I like it. It seems we are in different macro reality than last 40 years. We might have more tinny recessions ahead, where labor market stays tight and interest rate stays higher for longer. We might have structural inflation in cycles. Such market will give a lot of opportunities to buy below intrinsic values, but overall capital should be rewarded less than labor. So folks stay out of SP500 and pay attention to what Sven says!

  11. When I have money, I buy my highest conviction stocks at the time… and that’s it.

    I’m always 100% invested.

  12. I buy when I find a good opportunities, no need for me to have rules like that. I try to have around ten stocks but that is not a hard rule. Right now my portfolio is 75% invested.

  13. My strategy is to be fully invested. But I have some emergency funds aside, as well as some savings for when I want to follow some courses or do renovations on my house, vacations, etc. So when I find opportunities that are really a bargain, I can lower those funds temporarily and invest it. I can build up those funds again with money that I will normally contribute monthly to my portfolio.

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. that’s it, I think even a mediocre strategy followed over a long period of time is better than no strategy

  14. Years ago I decided I want to have the problem of having too much money. All things considered, there are many worse problems.

  15. The question of how much cash to hold is a very important one. I believe that the answer depends on the valuations at which the businesses trade: all in when the valuations are low and a lot of cash when the valuations are high and there are few opportunities.

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