Let's talk about the market crash nightmare scenario share by Druckenmller in his recent interview. It is not a prediction, however it is always excellent to keep an open mind about what can occur when it comes to investing. We always think in scenarios, not to forecast, however to be prepared for whatever and to assess the risks in our portfolios.
Lots of think a market crash of 50% is a crazy choice, however stocks would not be far from where those were just 2 years back. Therefore a crash is not the ridiculous part, the outrageous part is how much stocks went up the last two years. Even more, mathematically when the price of a possession increases, the benefit instantly goes down and the threat increases.
Here is what might be the drivers of a stock market crash nightmare scenario. Delight in
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0:00 Market Crash Headache.
1:17 FED Wrong.
2:55 Rates at 5%.
3:09 10 Year At Nominal GDP.
4:08 Anticipated Returns from Stocks.
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another video of sven, another doom & gloom scenario. keep it up buddy, i enjoy my +25% on sp500 easy peasy, without be a “value investor”. just be invested and be ready for a crash. plus central banks dont will allow a +30% crash or more on stock market. -75%… pfff please..
I have to agree. People need to stop overthinking. Just stay invested and build cash in times like now when we’re obviously due for a correction as things are expensive. But if we hit -75% at that point we are likely in WW3 or civil war, every government, business and individual will be underwater and in depression mode, and your brokerage account will not matter.
But Sven, why worry. Your chanel is about value investing. Not Cryptos, not Nvidea, Tesla (PE 98 by the way), NFTs or any other crazy thing. If the market crashes 80%. Yes it is very unpleasant. But make a nice tea and watch the blodbath. Invest if you have some money or gold in all the stocks that are to much expansive now. Then wait 2 years. Be wealthy.
Many value investors have a larger than normal percentage of their portfolio waiting to buy a deal.
@@Robert-fx3ng They are waiting forever 😂😂
EV and AI sectors Dip-buying volume growing today. Interesting to see how many close in the Green. Thumbs Up video/ comments.
Thank you Sven! Always something new from you. The best value entertaining channel on the You Tube!
It is all about the risk premium paid for srock earnings in relation to the ten year yield. Recent history has this at around 1.5-2% premium on forward earnings out a year or two. Ar current yields, that puts the SP500 at around $5117 today. Its even overvalued with current rates, let alone 8% yields on the ten year.
Would like to see a video about Keurig Dr. Pepper. They seem to be quite cheap after the recent sell off.
Sven – a few years ago you recommended to lock in mortgage rates for long term. Turned out to be a very good call. Any thoughts on whether you think that is worth looking at again now? I live in Canada and can lock in 5 yr fixed rate of 4.8%, currently mortgage is variable. Cashflow is not an issue at all, so really just speculation on which option would lead to less interest payment
in the short term hard to predict, but given where inflation is going, always better to lock for long term. Canadian banks are smart, they know locking for more than 5 years is risky
Hee hee look what sven drew at 2:10
:-)_
Thank you for always keeing us on the ground and have that risk scenario in mind! very important! What is your cash percentage?
no cash!
Money market or short term bonds then?
Not a crash, but a buying opportunity
🙂
Great Vid. All you say is very plausible. I know if the market is down I don’t feel like spending. If this is in aggregate then watch out. I am a stock broker 40yrs and have seen 5 recessions. Bull markets are like heaven, Bear are like hell.
Well said!
Remember they cannot rise interest rates too much this time, they will go bankrupt. Inflation is very good for high debt gov, they cancel debt. 🙂
yes, but the small changes impact life a lot!
There’s always something to worry about.
yep, and investing despite the worries!
If you predict a market crash every year, one year you”ll certainly be right.
sven is just pissed he missed out on all those tech gains since 2020 😂😂
hahaha
Another one?
🙂
6.21 is 110 trillions, not billions obviously
of course :-)))
How can i make more profits from the crypto market?
I would suggest holding, but there are better options like day trading.
Most of the current top companies would reach FAIR VALUE in 5-10 years if things go well, so the potential to drop hard if things go sideways is ASTRONOMICAL. So much is priced-in in the future for NVDIA, TESLA that it feels more like a gamble than a calculated risk, but… everything is based on hype and speculation these days… 🤗
I hope so