THE INDEX FUNDS BUBBLE NOBODY TALKS ABOUT

It is viewed that just go up no matter what. Well, at least that has been the case for the last 40 years, however bear in mind didn't even exist prior to this mega booming market.

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THE INDEX FUNDS BUBBLE NOBODY TALKS ABOUT

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36 Comments

  1. So what is the alternative for the passive investor? Picking stocks would be similar to burning money for most people.

    1. Also if sp500 goes down, market sentiment turn permabear, your individual stock likely will also be bearish long term as investors hesitate to invest and pulls out. But with a raising China maybe we can think about more global diversification just like Ray Dalio says. Diversify over sector, location, countries, and time. It’s always been the case one empire falls, another rises but it will take centuries to happen and there will be a time when both empires are at the top competing for #1

    2. @Cali2216 When you say ‘exceptionally few do in the long run’, define ‘long run’. If you’re talking the last 40 years then yes, but the last 40 years have also had clear and consistent expansionary monetary policy, and that trend can’t continue since we’re already bouncing on the floor in terms of interest rates.

  2. Interesting and challenging view about passive investing. I didn’t understand very well the relationship between the buyers sellers and age piramid. How are you factoring in the fact that low cost brokers like degiro in europe are recruiting more and more young investors in countries were most households typically weren’t investing as much in stocks and specially US stock, either due to lack of knowledge or high fees, but spent their lives not investing at all or investing in more traditional investments like real estate. Will this trend not create more buyers for the stock markets overall?

  3. Buffet says that for an inexperienced investor the SP500 is the way to go. In fact after his death the majority of his wealth will go directly to SP500, so I don’t understand why the SP500 is a bubble if Buffet himself approves this kind of investing for the long run?

    1. Okay! its really nice meeting you here and I’m very willing to put you through crypto currency and investment 👍🏻……

    2. Most people are not going to spend the time it takes to find great companies by listening to value investment advice from people like Sven Carlin. So most people should take Buffet’s advice. Buffet does not follow this advice because he knows that he is not like most people and there is no reason that you or I need to be like most people either. We can put in the time to become more knowledgeable and more experienced.

  4. I think the investor psychology plays more important role than asset class.
    If mindless investing in S&P 500 is terrible, then mindless investing in cryptocurrency or NFT will be worse.
    It’s all about understanding the risk and reward.

  5. This is one of the things that are on my mind whenever I think about investing, index funds have been good because demographics have been good. More buyers than sellers, but as you say once the boomers start selling there will not be enough working age population to “buy” from them and the market just goes down.
    We are in for a interesting few decades ahead 🙂

  6. but index funds are just baskets of stocks…no different than we invested in a sven-dex fund with picks from your reserach. there are still companies, real businesses within the basket. That being said since they are not actively managed and rebalanced I can see the potential for them causing exaggerated up and down swings based on mass purchases and mass redemptions.

    1. Only applies for Ark holdings because the AUM was quite high for small cap companies. Most ETF AUM is with large cap stocks but at a very low % of float so only a few % risk

  7. It is absolutely pointless to look at the dividend yield of the S&P 500 when corporations keep shifting towards buybacks.
    Also, long-term real rates, which are far more important for stock valuation than short-term rates, are already positive.

  8. If the S/P500 goes down another 50%, more than likely any individual stocks you/we own will get destroyed. Of course some will go up but the chances that us individual investors outsmart the market over time is highly unlikely. Buffet and Bogle have been preaching this for decades and so far they are right. They’ve seen it all and also don’t sell any courses on individual stock investing.

    1. Yes. Hand-picked “value” stocks have just as much chance of getting destroyed for one reason or another. Don’t exactly get the point of this fear-mongering.

    2. ⬆️..DM let’s talk about investment//advice on how to trade📥📥📥

    3. The “mindless” aspect is what makes it work: DCA during good times and bad, almost non-existent management fees, and beat 80%+ of all investors. “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting”

  9. Hi Sven! Thanks for another great video! Any thoughts on Thailand and Vietnam and investing there? They show great growth and the forecasts are positive.

  10. bra… if my VOO falls 50% you best believe every other stock i could possibly imagine buying is down 70% regardless of how deep value it is…

  11. I think that sp500 is like a ponzi scheme where has long as new people buy it goes up indefinetly but when a lot of us start to sell and want the money back there will be not enough money for everyone and the thing will collapse. I don’t think it will be soon because investing is easier and easier nowadays and a lot of young start to invest (low cash yes but many people make big cash). This said i ve no idea when the sp500 collapse but it will for me

  12. Thanks Sven. All correlations to 1. It was all liquidity. I’m trying to tell my friends to be careful but passive investing sometimes is a cult. Yield and risk are the only thing that matters. Thanks for the video. Also, the comments are indicative of the size of the bubble. PS: some pension funds don’t even allow you to keep your funds in cash. People counting the years will be bitterly disappointed.

  13. Is it overvalued? Yes.
    But over the long period of time (40 years), if we can even get a 5% return, we will conserve some amount of purchasing power and 7x our money.
    “Just keep buying.”

  14. People have been saying that index is about to pop for many years now. Do this every year and you will be right if it happens.

  15. Really good video. I agree. We need to lower expectation of future returns of the broader market. If you are expecting 8-10% annual returns over the next 10 years from index funds you might be quite disappointed.

    Charlie Munger in 2021 said real returns in the coming decade will likely be very low. However he keeps still trying to find value in great businesses despite the climate. His strategy has not changed and of course has worked very well.

  16. Sven, what do you think about Verizon after last earnings report and no growth projected in the future? Waiting for the dividend yield of 7%?

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