The FED can have fun with rate of interest, inflation and cash, however they can't really conserve us from the path we are on. Only performance can, but then who wishes to work more difficult and find out more … Economic circumstance Q4 2024 Video
FED Rate Cut –
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Great video Sven, thank you.
Before Dalio, this was the Bitcoin and capped supply thesis for all altcoins, what they aim to solve. It’s only a matter of time before they face a death cross with currency devaluation. While no solution is perfect, an unalterable, globally liquid asset will be the future when the decline begins.
If no real solution, and they(fed) will just continue. Why fight it ? Trying to do value investing and probably trailing the s&p 500, seems like the wrong bet and therefor actually higher risk ?
The projected estimates for real growth: South Africa 3 % (borderline failed state with even power outages), China 4 % (negative population growth and mad dictator), Hong Kong 5 % (look previous), Russia 3 % (Negative population growth, madder dictator, failed state) etc. Just look at that list.
If the central government #1 collect taxes, #2 allocate funds, and #3 spends money, doesn’t much of the fault for the high volume of debt falls on the central government for miss allocating funds. If the central government allocated funds to increase productivity then the volume of debt burden would not be as high. Can the central bank refuse to give the central government money unless it allocates it into productive investments???
Your overall idea is a sound one. From the 1930s-1990s the US inparticular used government funding to construct public infrastructure which propagated further expansion of services but mainly population. These were investment like uses of public spending. Since then very little (relivtely) public spending goes towards productive investments. Creating productive investments isn’t as easy as it once was (further population growth being challenging). However, some are available. I’m sure people smarter/more informed than me could also have even more fantastic ideas than myself.
Personally I do not think productivity will be the largest issue. I think increasing the size of the overall pie will be the most challenging.
The chairman of the fed is appointed by the central government.
@@dboe1239 great thanks for that, it helpful. I did not think that as economies mature, opportunities for productive investments probably decrease. The division of the pie it’s largely a product of culture. Japan as an example is a country with relatively low income inequality compared to developed economies and that has been in part because of taxes. Inheritance taxes are 55% so most of what is inherited goes away within 3 generations. Historically income equality measures have been passed through taxes. The US 1930s happened that way and 2020 liquidity infusions were passed by giving money to citizens. Without a harsh economic environment, I don’t know how the government would do it without causing uproar
@@Latin_American_Economic I agree that income inequality is becoming too large an issue to ignore. I think inheritance taxes are a good way to change this. I am from the UK and there are many ways to avoid inheritance taxes. Getting rid of the ways round inheritance taxes may be all it takes. However as you say, a crisis may be needed to push these laws through. If there’s one thing I’m certain of it’s that the future will see many more challenging times. People work together in crisis’ so there is lots of hope 🫡
central bank is the government 🙂
Temporary taxes? Reminds me of the kwartje van Kok.
:-)))
Indeed, “temporary taxes” have the annoying habit of becoming permanent.
🙂
Listen to Adam Smith, Sven. Adam Smith, the father of capitalism and the invisible hand of the market said rentiers had to be taxed and that monopolies should be regulated or nationalized. The first step would be to remove all taxes on construction and construction incomes to drive down the cost of living. Further increasing taxes on rentiers like mine owners, land lords and monopolists can drive down the cost of living while increasing tax revenues. Adam Smith argued for this in his great work, “ the wealth of nations” as he was arguing against the feudalist rentier economy characterized by rent seeking wars and a massive military industrial complex for acquiring rent yielding assets. A capitalist cannot be a rentier or feudalist. Remember our roots
thanks for sharing!
@Sven , what is your view on the approach that Milei is following? Could this work for other countries?( Deficit zero, reduce money printing and cut government costs)
Recession (depression?); -4% Growth; more than 50% live in absolute poverty. Yeah, we should apply that here in Germany, Czech Republic, France, Spain, etc. as well. Great idea!
that is again thinking a politician can save people
@@royjays4588 Well, pretty sure that’s not the result of a year’s worth of governance.
“Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run is almost everything.”
Well said Sven
First 4 nations for productivity per hour are abnormal ones: Ireland, Luxemburg are tax heavens, Norway has some extrafactors, natural resources if I rembember right….some doubts about Switzerldand, that was another heaven for banks, not sure if it’s the same anymore.
norway has dropped down the list since 2019
I want Indonesian stocks. But I’m finding it impossible to find a legit broker that allows non residents to buy from their exchange.
3:09 Why does Singapore have such a high ratio of government debt to GDP, yet nobody seems worried about it?
Off topic: possible to look at Spirit Airlines. Curious your opinion on value
The saving grace is that if Ray Dalio could predict the future, he would have beaten the S&P in the past, and I “predict” that he won’t beat it in the future either.
I’m not saying “all is good”, just that the future will not go like anyone’s specific prediction
Great content! ❤❤❤
Thanks Sven for the very interesting video and topic!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Hi Sven, just wanted to hear your thoughts on Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Arcadium Lithium at $ 5.95 per share.
I know that you did Lithium videos before and that it is a “China” trade, however I was wandering what could change for the industry now and does the China’s stimulus from 2 weeks ago could mean that we are entering officially in a commodity bull market?
you are running too fast here, things don’t move that fast
Back ground Economic Degree. In Canada analyst will talk about productivity vs the US and how we are behind. As far as I can tell productivity is for a company to buy a computer and or machine that will replace a worker and thus productivity goes up. This does not sound like great solutions except for the owner of the company. Or off shore the job to India. A race to the bottom. Not good. Turning our selves into a service economy means everyone is getting minimum wage and no benefits. No wonder growth if flagging. young people can’t buy a house, can’t afford a new car, living in some dank basement of your parents house. Not good solutions to the problem. So yes Sven, the solution is to look after yourself, screw everyone else. Sad. Maybe I will move to Cuba and be a peasant. At least I get a nice beach. There are solutions to this problem. It means making items locally and paying more and the velocity of money makes us all well off. Good luck trying to get governments to do this.