The Everything Bubble Is Deflating – How Much More? (7 Factors)

The whatever bubble is deflating, where are we now while doing so? Here is an effort to answer that.

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Is Deflating – How Much More? (7 Factors)

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34 Comments

  1. What people should do now is to work a lot to get money to invest when everyone is gonna claim it is the end of the world.

  2. WARNING: As the channel grows (thank you all for that), there are more and more scammers impersonating me. The only thing I am selling is my Research Platform and Book ​​https://sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
    All that I do, the real links to my content are in the description of the video, I don’t give out my Whatsapp number and I don’t sell any Cryptocurrency related things! BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!

  3. Last year fashion is pretty different from today’s. Sentiment can change really quickly, value is pretty much the same

  4. Good 1970s chart for those who dollar cost average, bad chart for lump sum investors, Im waiting for a more pessimistic chart though, with deleveraging. People still have money to invest, those who invested money they need with no long term plan for a massive downturn still need to sell, because they may be waiting for a V recovery like in 2020.

  5. Thanks, Sven!
    Can you please talk about the sectors that are expected to weather (at least with some efficiency) the upcoming times please?
    I guess that’s consumer defensives, food, probably banks and some of the widespread and sticky tech products?
    What about infrastructure, utilities, wind turbines and nuclear power?

    1. it is not really about the sector, but about the business in any sector!

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. For sure, but there are are some correlations. Like people stopping buying luxury goods and preserving basics when demand is shrinking.
      However, I understand that businesses within a sector do differ in their resilience, of course.

    3. @Andy A You can see from last time since 2008. People bought cheap stuff. Netflix and gaming was cheap entertainment. Dollar stores, cheap fast food like McDonalds did well. But why are you looking at defensive stocks now? You’re already too late. I bought my banks, energy and nuclear stocks last year.

      But most importantly, Sven is right. It will always come down to a good company at a low price. Why dream up other things to be distracted by?

    4. @TheBooban Agree. I’m in for value investing.
      Just interested in what sectors will do better this time as it is the first major economic slowdown in my investing experience.
      Not looking to buy neither just defensives nor sector based ETFs as they do not prove for efficiency in the long term, just theoretisizing.

  6. I don’t believe that most of the overpriced stocks will ever return to their previous values. Painful lessons for most of us.

    1. ​@E Shahn Who knows ? You must do your own research and make your own decisions. Sorry I’m not a financial advisor 🙁

  7. Appreciate the vid Sven. I know the EM community would love you to come by for an interview. Its always nice to have like minded investors together to speak about markets and processes. Cheers!

  8. I really enjoy your video’s, Sven! I agree with your assessment for the S&P 500 in this video. Using Graham’s approach, I calculate fair value on the S&P 500 between 2,000-3,000.

  9. The nature of the inflation is very important to understand. How much is money printing, how much is war, how much is covid. Because how high will inflation be when war is (hopefully) gone? How high will inflation be when covid is gone? When logistics problems are gone? How much QE will there be moving forward? Because inflation because of war and covid means there is supply issues. But money printing will cause everyone to have more money which will increase salaries, then profits and this will increase asset-valuations to increase.

  10. Hello Sven, I would love you so much if you can also do some analysis on Qualcomm if possible, I think it’s a very interesting and special case of a company+valuation worth bringing up!

  11. I wish you could make list of decent , safe dividend stocks, I really want to build my wealth on accumulating dividend stock with decent pay-out at least 4 % yield

    1. But everybody has a list of that. All you have to do is filter by dividend, market cap and buy a big company you recognise that is near some bottom in its chart. 3M, there you go. Easy peesy.

  12. This time is different! :p Actually, it might be, but in a bad way… I’m referring to the FED interest rate chart you showed – from that you can see that the FED never increases interest rates DURING a recession (they increase interest rates before a recession, possible triggering it, and maybe also the first quarter of a recession until the numbers show we’re in a recession, but they haven’t continued to increase interest rates during a recession). This might change this time – i.e we might enter a recession and have the FED continue to increase interest rates to cope with inflation (especially since much of the current inflation is supply issues and also undersupply)

  13. When I look at commodity prices ex energy and US mortgage rates then it looks like inflation is about to crash with possible deflation. At least for the US Dollar. 4% FED funds rate does not seem that likely.

  14. I forgot Europeans switch the comma and period for numbers. I was like, no way the nasdaq goes to 10!

  15. Sven I totally see the S&P going down in half but who knows. Housing I think will not crash. It’s just not the same as the market. If anything it could get more expensive. I wouldn’t be surprised if it doubles from this point by the end of the decade. We’re at low inventory and underbuilt. Once we see inventory pickup and there’s more homes than people who can buy then we get another crash. I don’t think interest rate increase will have an effect. People will just not sell which will further increase the price. Who would sell when they’re locked in at 2 or 3 percent rates….

  16. It took too long with that bubble to burst finally in the last years, hope it will not revert when the FED realizes what they do to American retirement funds and print money again… I don´t need any artificially inflated markets as a steady long time buyer..

  17. Thank you for the great content Sven! One of only a few people worth watching on Youtube for financial education.

  18. Hi Sven, thanks for sharing your wise thoughts in those troubled times.
    For the next “10 analysed stocks” video, could you please do this for Europe stocks ?
    Cheers from France !

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