SWK stock or Stanley Black & Decker stock is what represents a good industrial. as the headwinds pass, it could do well.
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To be honest I’d only be comfortable with SWK at probably around 60
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Deere & Co : ticker DE
Manufacture and sell farming, equipment, industrials, heavy machinery world-wide
Risk: global slowdown, I read somewhere they are planning to pivot to software revenue which seems odd to me, supply chain issues in manufacturing
Reward: price has been down a lot, company does a lot of buybacks, small dividend, can they get back on track for manufacturing and sales
Catalyst: commodities price surge, iconic recently in pulling tanks for recovery and may be more visible
Is it too expensive? Is it a good company?
Thank you for considering it
Hello! As an european investor I’m looking for European Stock to add to my portfolio. I decided to avoid invest in dollar, as I think that in the future dollar will decrease in value against the euro as the economy get in better shape. So I’m interested in Kion XTRA:KGX a german supply chain company Low P/E, Low P/B and a dividend payer. Now the stock is very low and I think that the company is strong enough to survive and then thrive in the future. I’ve other investment recommendation but I don’t want to give a 20 stock list to analyze.
πYou can DM, There’s currently an ongoing promotional promo plan ,you’d be receiving profit too right?
Hey Sven. Everyone I know who uses tools alot says black and deckers quality has really declined over the past decade. They are on par with the store brand tools but usually at a slightly higher price. They are really just going off brand recognition now
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Sempre ben druze Sven, grazie per il servizio
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VF Corp: Ticker VFC
Apparel and Footwear company
Risk: Upcoming recession, slowdown in consumer purchases due to weakening demand (management already slashed outlook few weeks ago)
Reward: historically high dividend yield and low PE relative to history (6.3% and 12PE)
Catalysts: Economic recovery could see a spike in earnings due to their brands (North Face, Supreme, Timberland etc)
+1 π
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Hey Sven, how would you contrast SWK with MMM ? Some of your points about industrials, the cycle, debt… can also apply to 3M, but I remember you were more positive about 3M in a recent video. Growth/patents ?
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10:00 plus recession ahead, and already we are starting getting bad KPI from manufacturer sector in US. So, it could be low for a while..perhaps have a look in 2 – 4 year time?
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Bought Stanley Black & Decker a few weeks ago, dropped another 10% but Iβm sure it will be one of those stocks which I will just buy and hold, maybe even double or triple the position
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Iβd be curious to hear your opinion on Makita. Same industry, same problems but seemingly much more financially solid
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AMBP – Ardagh Metal Packaging
Primarily sells metal beverage cans to the likes of beer & soft drink manufacturers. A boring but stable business.
Risks & Mitigants
– Issued a lot of debt in order to fund new expansions (although expansion is based off 100% contracts for 2022 & largely contracted to 2024)
– High parent ownership & some self serving – $200mil prepetual preffered 9% stock issued after a $200mil buyback (but still very much aligned)
– Execution risk (management is experienced in the industry, this is a business that can be run by an idiot, this business has been around since 2011 I believe)
– Overexpansion (see before on contracts)
Reward
– If successful in expansion, we are looking at an undervalued company that looks to pay dividends for years to come.
– Owning a relatively stable business with multiyear contracts. It’s not likely that people are going to stop drinking Pepsi, Heineken & Monster Energy.
– A current dividend yield of 8% that has has targets to be raised in the future.
– Owning a pure play aluminium can business. Aluminium cans are easy to recycle (and are better than alternatives), are very easy to store & have had lots of growth from speciality cans (think of 250ml cans)
Catalysts
– Ardagh have been looking to address the shortage in aluminium beverage cans by expanding their manufacturing. The opening of these new plants are projected to increase the net income by 2x by 2024.
I like better a simple little business in home interior from Norway called KID ASA
They operate stores in Norway and Sweden, as well as an online shop.
KID has multiples of the margins, return-on-invest numbers etc. of what SWK has.
Price to FCF lies at 6 (!!). Dividend yield about 11%.
Business growing nicely over the past. They did a big aquisition of Hemtex which was highly accreditive to sharholders.
They lately had issues with shipments being more expensive. But shipment rates are retracting quickly now.
I like their statement in the last report “There have been no other significant events after the end of the reporting period.”
They typically have miniscule earnings in Q2, a 60% earnings miss there means nothing. But the market reacts on it. Most business is in Q4.
Risks are reduced consumer spending (If the case, will they forever buy less home interior? No) and delivery problems.
Hi Sven, I really enjoy this series. I want to have a laugh with you with TDOC, one of Cathie Wβs top picks. You did a fantastic video where you ended with sliding down on the snow showing that they would all crash. Would be interesting to see your take now that most of those stocks have crashed 60-80%
TELADOC (TDOC)
Business Description: Number 1 digital healthcare company in the US and expanding globally.
Risk
-P/FCF 37.87
-No Earnings
-FCF are present but could revert to being negative due to high growth targets and investments.
-Possible competition
-If ARKK fails all the stocks in the fund could be hit hard
Reward
-Average Revenue growth in the past 5 years: 56.5%
-P/S: 1.85
-Low liabilities and debt ratios!
-FCF are positive and a FCF Model with a 25% yoy growth which is not easy but could be achieved, a 10% discount multiple and a 30% margin of safety would give a buy price at 24$ which is not far from current levels. If the growth stays at 50% then there is a nice upside.
Catalysts
-Increase in Online Services worldwide – Digitisation
-They have signed a deal with Amazon that wants to enter this space. Now TDOC services can be reached through Alexa. Could also be bought out by Amazon in the future.
I agree with your analysis. However, I would say it has a Narrow Stable moat. I have family and friends in construction/home improvement and they all only buy DeWalt. Brands like that are hard to establish and have a loyal following.
What is your opinion on AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft (ASAAF)? Stock has recently dropped to around 35 β¬ and is down around -22% YTD. The company manufactures circuit boards and is a supplier for Apple, Sony and Fairphone. It doubled earnings and one of my mates told me that it is now a good investment.