Stocks Always Go Up – REALLY???? Confirmation Bias + My Investing vs. The Market

he predominant concept is that stocks constantly to up which no matter when you buy, if you hold long term, you will get a good return! Well, I would argue that something like that might be easy to believe since stocks did go nothing but up over the last 4 decades, however …

0:00 Stocks Constantly Up
2:42 Valuations
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– REALLY???? Confirmation Bias + My Investing vs. The Market

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About the Author: Richard Money

36 Comments

    1. Problem is that I interest rates are moving upwards with inflation. Inflation with beginning to decelerate. It may remain high but the rate of change will stop. And it’s the process of rate of Change that is causing interest rates to rise. So when inlaflation stays steady interest rate increases should begin to stabilize

    1. Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated.
      For questions, Investment opportunities and tips. Feel free to message above.

  1. I understand your point, but the title is soo misleading. 😁 You are right that oftentimes the price discovery is not efficient and some stocks can have bigger returns, BUT world index always goes up over a 20+ year period and just averaging in a world index has statistically better chances than a regular Joe “researching” stocks, not Svan Carlin but your regular YouTubers. How do I know this? I saw confidential research from some of the BIG banks, and it’s so far away from what retail investors considering as being a DCF and research.

  2. What I don’t get is why people talk about “dollar cost averaging” only in context of investing in a broad market index. I can just as well DCA the dips in ten (or even less) businesses I consider to be stronger than average S&P company. Am I missing something?

    1. You’re not missing anything. I DCA all the time into companies. I don’t invest in ETFs. They are worse than companies.

      I guess many feel buying companies is a matter of conviction. So don’t need to DCA. I think it’s naive to think you are always right in your “conviction”.

    2. The reason people say to dollar cost average into index funds is to protect against ignorance, it is currently viewed as safer by the finance community, and easier to say and understand.

      1.Not everyone has the time/interest to learn/keep up to date on the companies they bought. Imagine investing in companies based only on the stock price chart, a brief description, hype and word of mouth “tesla is going up like crazy!” You’re just gambling at that point. If you have no financial literacy, it’s better off if you DCA into index funds and hold for long term. You may not have the best returns, but considering finance managers “can’t beat the market” + “you can’t beat the market” mantra, and it works if you backtest, and it’s easy to do, understand and not time consuming. It gets really popular.

      2. Many retail investors aren’t good at buying and selling stocks, their average return in 3.2% compared to SPY. Some people on reddit are down 70-80% on their stock picks.

      3. Nothing wrong with DCA into single stocks that YOU THINK are better than SPY. But this strategy is riskier, you will make mistakes, myself included. There is no guarantee you will outperform the market as well. A dividend strategy is a good way to do this and it can be profitable, but slower and not sexy.

      I also DCA into stocks.

    3. @rich r exactly.
      I DCA into funds for long term savings and DCA into stocks I think could do well. I don’t have the time or interest to try and beat the market consistently though.

  3. Appreciate your perspective, knowledge and experience. You’re very helpful, in regards to helping others understand this critical subject in everyones’ lives- i.e., financial matters.

    1. Thanks for watching, send a direct 📩📩👆 for more profitable information.

  4. Even when the market was flat in the ’60s and ’70s, skillful value investors did 10X ( i think you made that point in an earlier video). . It might be a good idea to DCA on an index when the Buffett indicator is at 80 or below if you have a long horizon. Even better if you can pick 20-30 stocks & are a reasonably good value investor.

    1. ​@Max007 September of 2008 through March of 2010 ( More or Less ) would be a time to consider buying the indexes without worry, as it was at 80 or below. I would continue to purchase ordinary stocks after that, though with DCA until 140, and then be patient and wait. Easier said than done, of course. The S & P is correlated to the Wilshire 5000, which Buffett speaks to.

  5. I like how you don’t give a toss about your platform subscribers and haven’t even made an update on FLOW q3 results, but making YT videos is more important to you now, your strategies change as with the direction of wind

    1. Thanks for watching, send a direct 📩📩👆 for more profitable information

    2. I know, right? :)) Like it’s one of the few stocks that he’s supposed to own. Same for intel but to a lesser extent.

    3. Same for China Mobile. I mean maybe there’s nothing new to add but just say that don’t completely ignore it.

  6. My stock portfolio is still up +20% this year and my index fund portfolio is – 30%(east european fund sure has tanked) and I’m not really smart guy. But picking up stocks and moving things around is more flexible than investing in a sp500 fund. That is a train track and they simply can’t move money into heavily beaten up markets where is great deals.

  7. Thanks for the great video Sven, you are rational and logical as always! I would love if you made a video like the “lost decade” one, but about other stock markets. I would really enjoy hearing your opinons concerning the scandinavian stock markets! As your charts show, they perform better than the S&P and generally performe better than other stockmarkets being among the top performers world wide during the last 100 years or so. They are not as connected to Europe as well with their own currencies and their own central banks. I would love to hear your insight as a diligent swedish investor. Best of wishes!

  8. Hi Sven, I have a question not related to the video I was hoping you can help me with:

    If a country’s private banks are promoting fixed interest savings accounts at 15% a interest rate, does this mean there is a huge demand for high interest loans? Or what could it mean?
    In Colombia at the moment many banks are offering 15% interest
    lending at around 22%
    National bank interest rate is currently 11%

    1. It’s the currency risk, that’s the problem. Your currency can lose more than 15% compared to the $ in the period you are required to keep the deposit.

    2. @Mihai B im aware of that, im not interested in investing. I want to know how can the banks be sure they can offer such a rate over the next few years.

  9. Let’s take a look at four types of index investors who were in the market from 2000 to 2010 a lost decade.
    1) Investor 1 invested one lump sum of $10000 in the s&p in 2000 and never added any contribution. In 2010, he ended up with $10361 in 2010
    2) Investor 2 DCA $100 a month from 2000 to 2010, he ended up with $16158 in 2010
    3) Investor 3 invested one lump sum of $10000 in a US small cap value index fund and never made additional contributions. In 2010, he had $26184
    4) Investor 4 contributed on a monthly basis $100 on a US small cap value index fund from 2000 to 2010. He would have $21230 at the end
    Index investing makes money in a bear market 🤷‍♂️

    1. I also said it in the video, DCA S&P 500 is a good strategy, so don’t be smart here!

  10. Stocks always go up until they don’t. 🙂 Still, if you are not buying them on the top and you are ready to sell calls against them while you are not satisfied with the price, you should perform well.

  11. Hi Sven! I really appreciate your videos and I find a lot of value in them.
    I’ve noticed a lower audio quality in the latest videos, your voice is farthest and less clear.
    I hope you can fix this.
    Thank you very much for all your contents

  12. Confirmation Bias- Real Estate ‘they say you can’t lose on RE because they are not making any more of it.’ But it wiped out the middle class in Europe and the US in 2008. Also farm land fell for 100 years in the 1800’s as I recall. Diversification of asset classes is a good idea. Land, stocks, gold, bonds.

  13. stock picking is hard, requires skill, time, luck. If you have all of them then you can do it. Otherwise just go for an index ETF with DCA. That’s my humble opinion

  14. One note: Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted price to Earnings Ratio (Shiller CAPE) is not adjusted to interest rates, so Shiller came up with Shiller Excess CAPE Yield, which may work better.

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