Stock market news: today we talk about the two essential motorists when it concerns cash and investing these days. Currencies are losing value, the USD is getting stronger, stocks are crashing and we don't understand for the length of time.
0:00 Stocks & Money
1:33 Market Crash
4:08 Principles
8:13 Recession Ahead
11:39 Investing
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Yeah I can understand people holding cash this year but don’t wait too long. Markets will rebound and eventually surpass even Jan 2022 levels. It’s only a matter of time.
I was talking with some of my friends about the current financial market situation. Everybody is expecting a crash in 2023. But… If we take a look at recent 2008. and 2020. drops that we had – these got everybody by supprise. What we are missing now is that element of supprise. Maybe 2023 crash doesn’t happen as everybody is prepared and bad environment is already priced into the stocks. I, myself got 70% out of the market since I have not yet seen any positive changes, yield curve is inverted (not looking normal), dollar is strong… Also I am hoping for that drop since s&p500 average p/e is well above average…
I don’t really care about the market, I care about fundamentals!
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. well it is fun to think about when the market might offer nice fundamentals
The sp500 P/E ration is not a very accurate indicator. There are a few high multiple companies that are overweight in the index therefore making the whole market looking more expensive than it actually is.
The 2008 crash was not a surprise. Stock market crashes only affect speculators who are involved in stock trends rather than investing in businesses.
The question is more of what type of investor you are and if you are the type of person who has surplus cash, can invest consistently, and can handle the up and down market.
of course, at the end, investing is personal!
Let’s do extreme value investing, let’s go!
🙂
I am nibbling (DCA and some new positions) as far as I can. Value investing is the solution long term. As you said whatever we do as it is we may lose money. So for me is better to go down honorably rather than like a sitting duck…
Good point!
If you don’t start buying now, you’re probably gonna be too scared to start buying if the market drops another 20%-30%
that is a great point!
When the bottom comes, everyone is always convinced that it will continue dropping. Everyone is holding for those great prices. Also fear like you said, gotta dip in more and more as things drop.
Love your vids, Sven! Keep up the good work.
Thanks, will do!
Finally, Sven is back. Full of elan and purpose. Waiting for your next video.
:-))) YEP!!!
There is inflation in consumer goods, but a deflation in asset prices it seems. If you want to buy stocks your money becomes actually more valuable. That is great considering my biggest monthly expense is stocks. The decline is unfortunately more in kind of cyclical stocks. Companies like Fastenal, Microsoft, Estee Lauder etc. are still kind of expensive.
Balance is key. Its always good to have cash to buy cheaper. Warren says cash is like oxygen (for a company, but I think it applies to investors too).
I am investing more in stocks now that my dollars are more expensive. It wont last forever, dollars will get cheaper and I dont want to end trapped with devaluated dollars.
It’s at least time to consider rotating positions as things change. To me the relative value is changing.
that is what often happens with crashes!
Hi Sven ! The main question for us buying in Euros is , is really everything that cheap ? The S&p is down 20 something % but the euro also lost the same amount to the dollar … Or you ignore the currency behavior in the short term counting than in the long term it should get back to “normal” ?
I really appreciate your international value investing perspective. I learn a lot from your videos and I am reconsidering my investing philosophy and approach. Great content and unique perspective I haven’t found anywhere else. It’s so important, especially for us in the US, to seek out a variety of sources and perspectives — not just with news, media, and people, but also with investing. More information and a broader perspective benefits us and helps us make better decisions. Thank you!!!
Great video and explanation Sven! When you analyze those European stocks, could you take a look on Maisons du Monde (MDM.PA) and Fnac? They look cheap but I think they have an ok financial situation. Could there be value here?
Hello Sven, Thanks again for another great video. Could you please do a video analysis on WBA ? It looks like an undervalued company for now. It has a long history of dividends, seems to have 10% EPS , low debt, P/E of 5.3 . The insiders have only 0,5% shares. More probably than not I am wrong on something but it would be great if you can do an analysis on it sometimes. Thank you for your work educating us im the value investing journey!
Just one constructive comment. Let’s look at buying a 5 year T Bill in March or April of 2023 at 4.75%. You mentioned inflation is at 8%, but let’s also assume that inflation goes to 4.5% by the end of 2023 and 3 % by the end of 2024, and hopefully lower after. While you can take risks in the equity market now, if you have made tons of cash, our focus is now on wealth preservation with incremental gains such as the example above. You are net positive in real terms at the end of 2023 and continue to gain afterward while maintaining your wealth. Moreover, for most of the people with tons of cash, the published inflation rate does not fully impact them. They may only see 50 to 60% of the print rate.