Stock market swings have been big recently. In my viewpoint it has to do with basics, or much better to state lack of basics, and high valuations.
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It’s always a pleasure to hear from you. I enjoy to listen you..
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Great context.everyone needs more than there salary to be financially stable.the best thing to do with your money is to invest it rightly because money left for saving always end up used with no returns.
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Hi Sven – Can you make a video on stocks which are at all time highs now in the midst of the bear market?
What can we learn about them? How is it possible? Would it be wise to ease up on positions, given the interest spike? Or even invest? Etc.
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Thanks for your content Sven, I still think PE ratio of 17 is much more attractive compared to upside
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The stock market is a reflection of investor and trader emotion not fundamentals or valuation.
Hi Sven Carlin
I’ve recently had my eye on Deceuninck NV (DECB), it’s a small cap listed on the Brussels exchange. The company produces construction materials. It’s got good insider buying, good net income and low debt? (their short-term debt recently increased heavily…) + it pays a dividend. However net margins are down and so is the stock price, so I’m not entirely sure. Maybe from a value perspective with future earnings, what do you think?
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I’d like to add to this comment that I’ve compared the company to others in the industry. Take Cemex (Nyse: CX) for example, it has 715M in FCF for the ttm, but it’s valued at 5B. It’s balance sheet looks almost entirely similar to DECB. So these valutions probably have to do with the Building Materials industry. Nonetheless I’m still having trouble understanding the risk/reward.
Thanks for the video Sven!
You (and others) talk a lot about how ETFs are causing money to flow into the same large cap growth stocks, keeping them propped up. Have you looked at how many of the active funds that hold the top 10 of the S&P500? I would be very surprised if the same large cap growth stocks weren’t heavily represented in the active funds, as well as in private investors’ portfolios of individual stocks. And if that’s the case does it really matter if people are in ETFs?
Would be an interesting video I think!
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What worries me – let’s say this is a really severe crash, then SnP ~ 3000ish would be just a healthy correction. On the other side SnP could drop like 60~70% … I wonder if this would force the FED to act (which it shouldn’t) or if there will be a systemic failure before (because so much debt exists, at some point it must be unwinded).
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As usual … great stuff !
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Thank you Sven interesting video. I noticed that the PE for SP500 is slightly above the average value of 15, while the Dividend Yield is far below historical average (1.7 vs 4). What does it mean? How shall we interpret it? Is it due to the fact that modern time top companies are not dividend companies ? Shall we therefore neglect the dividend yield as a measure of valuation ? Whatโs your thought?
Regards
Ale
I would not care too much about dividend yield. Now many more companies return capital to shareholders via buybacks or just reinvest into the business. Nowadays with globalisation and economies of scale there are many more ways to expand the business. Before with banks, industrials and oil companies it was not possible to do so, and therefore they needed to pay in dividends.
70% of return is due to dividends – they matter.
It depends: if companies do buybacks when they are overvalued, they erode value! With dividends itโs up to you. However my question was whether or not dividends should be considered an indicator of market valuation or not anymore.
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@Alessandro If the dividend yield is more than 1/PE in percentage terms, the yield is unsustainable; better for the yield to be less than 1/2 the inverse of the PE, so yes, it can be helpful, but not in isolation. A high trailing yield can indicate a company in trouble, as judged by the markets.
Or, the fed buying the dip?
Excellent job Sven! Thanks for the video!
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Hello Sven, I think because of the energy crisis that goes on Europe, maybe some of the countries will go to renewable energy sources, with the aim to become more and more independent on energy. What is your thought on that? Do you think investing in renewable and clean energy sector in Europe is a good choice?
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Hi Sven, would be interesting to get your take on David Einhorn interview on Bloomberg claiming that Value Investing is dead. Thx
You were talking about S&P divident yield going down over the years, but at the same time a lot of companies, instead of paying dividends, started buybacks. Might explain why it’s 1.7%, instead of 4% ?
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This is a very important phenomenon, but I disagree that it reflects the market focusing on superficial elements like price and not on fundamentals. I suggest that it occurs because the market is focusing on existential fundamentals. E.g., during the COVID crash, the question was whether the economy as we know it is about to end. The answer to that question affects all companies, i.e., it is an existential fundamental. When we are in the midst of a panic, no one is sure. So people are easily influenced by other people’s opinion, which is expressed by buying or selling assets. The issues now have to do primarily with inflation and interest rates. Will they cripple the economy for years to come? Again, the answer to that question affects all companies at a fundamental level. That’s why we get these all-or-nothing days.
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Just curious if you have data that shows S&P500 price if S&P500 earning decline 10, 15, 20 and 25 %?
Thanks for providing great informative content
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Hello Sven, I was wondering if you could look into a company named CSV(carriage services). Its a funeral service company that is aggressively buying up the mom and pop funeral homes across the country so they have more room for growth then their competitor SCI(service corp international) I just wanted someone else’s opinion because I don’t see many videos on this industry. There aren’t very many players in the funeral service business. Love the show, keep it up!
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As an Indian in the U.S, I made my first million as a beginner investing in the stock by taking advantage of the ongoing market crisis with the help of a broker i met in a brokerage summit in Miami and he agreed to assist me, excited, additionally i have more time for my self and family
He is known as Monroe Horcel look him up on the webb
@Harli Bassham alright, I can see his profile here on the web, sent him a well articulated email hoping I get a response
To me 60k to 950k in 4 months considering the market instability is an impressive result, my uncle here in the U.S, an Indian is lucky working with Mr Monroe
Monroe Horcel couldn’t make it to the conference during corona break, I understand
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