The existing stock market bubble has actually been persistent with time but it is revealing the very first signs of cracking. No stock market crash in sight, however the fundamentals are clear – it is about when. But then obviously, no stock exchange crash for a decade can likewise be possible.
0:00 Stock Market Circumstance
6:25 Market News
7:55 Market Evaluation
9:57 How To Invest
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The market is clearly overpriced. Gha k you for the video
Thanks Sven, very informative vid, again and again !
Imagine if congress was a family: “After long heated discussions about what to do to avoid drowning in debt, the wife and the husband agree that they will both take out loans and spend more money”
The revenue side of a balanced budget matters, too.
So to go with your family analogy for govt policy since 1980, mom and dad cut their income by quitting one of their jobs, and then blamed the resulting deficit on their ‘lazy’ kids’ need for such luxuries as preschool and food.
the difference is moral hazard.
when one party benifits and another pays the costs of an action, you will get unethical behaviour.
government going into debt, benifits the rich who get richer and richer.
it harms the masses who pay for it through taxes and inflation.
so what does the government do? it serves its constituents.
which is the rich lobbying groups who make them rich through campaign funds and cushty jobs post government and not the public who vote for them. As the rich bribe every political party and every politician.
this is the truth of democracy.
It’s perfectly logical and rational behaviour.
I’ll do one better, in this scenario the family is in debt and they do get a loan but instead of paying back the loan with earned income they go to their basement and counterfeit the money to pay it off, the creditors accept the money, then the family realizes they could spend this money to fund all their spending flooding the market with worthless notes. The value of money decreases and creditors realize the notes are worthless. But because the family was smart, they spent all that money arming themselves so that no creditor would dare call them on their worthless paper. Essentially the family has created “don’t shoot me tokens” that do have value in that no one wants to get shot
This gave me the best laugh I’ve had in awhile. Wish we could all have the luxury of creating money out of thin air.
Need to buy votes
Sven, thanks for the videos. I have a small question/remark though, namely when you are mentioning interest spending on the current debt depending on interest rates. Aren’t interest rates for the open/current debt fixed for the government via coupon of the bonds the sell? Shouldn’t rate matter more for incremental/new debt only?
17% is bills, 40% is notes. ~$7.6T matures in 2024, ~22%.
Look for US Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt.
Also paper: Optimizing the Maturity Structure of US Treasury Debt
Using March’s data, $8.1T matures in ’24.
Most of that is already at ~5.2%. 25% is average of 1.78%.
The two “solutions:”
Print, print, print.
War.
He missed the rally, now again talking about market bubble and crash…
There’s a lot of perma bears on YouTube lol
Not that easy. The strong US economy is fueled by dept, private and public. This can persist longer than expected, but cannot go on forever. I guess 5y to the US debt crisis, but it could be 10 or 15.
@@MrGinotonixpeople have been warning of too much debt since the 80’s. Maybe longer, but I wasn’t born then.
I Agree with you 100% on stock valuations and the unsustainability for high interest rates for US Debt! In my opinion the end of this telenovela will be a big recession (induced by high rates); at that point inflation problems will be in the rear view mirror because companies will not be able to raise prices. The stock market will fall significlanty and the US treasuries will find buyers at 3% instead of 5%, with inflation back to 2%. That’s the old school ending. The alternative is much worse with big problems for both stock and bond market.
People have literally been saying the stock market has been in a bubble for years!
Americans love the money printing. They want more of it as they keep voting for it!
Just because it lasts for years it doesn’t mean it isn‘t a bubble… and just because it‘s a bubble, there‘s no reason it has to pop soon…
I strongly encourage everyone to keep their ETF savings plans going. Worst thing you can do is to stop investing listening to crash prophets, or worse, sell in a downturn to then buy again later -likely at higher levels. Been there before. Either one will lead you to invest later at higher levels. Been there
I dont know about that, maybe if its an emerging market ETF, as those are quite undervalued. If you own an s&p 500 ETF well then it would be MUCH less risky to change to bonds and would probably even give the same return. Ofc it depends on your personal situation, and if you are even able to do that due to fees from selling or a locked in retirement account
A very interesting analysis.
I suggest to be careful when using the comma or period annotation because sometimes billions are confused with trillions, even in your speech. Thanks.
Remember defense is your best offense…not how much will I make but how much can I lose.Thanks sven.
If that’s the case, then we should all be buying put options (but nobody does that because they are too expensive).
Cut spending, that was a good one.
Good, Sven. No matter what happens in the market, you’d OK!
I cut my spending. Sven laughing in my face is my worst fear now. I now also question my life decisions. ; (
Great vid!
:-))))
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Very informative video you have, I have been able to understand the messages you pass but there are some other challenges that may come about when taking some other risks or planning
So far 4 out of 5 SP500 companies have beaten profit expectations this quarter. Is this a fundamental?
I loved the ‘cut spending’ laugh
Investors are still in denial about the fundamentals of the economy. They expect rares will soon be cut and believe the topline GDP numbers signal a strong economy. However, they dont. Credit card balences are maxed out, more credit is hard to come by for consumers, a ton of companies are about to beforced into refinancing their debs at far higher interest and the regional bank backstop program is out this month. There’s also the fact that inflation ticks higher than expected every single time the markets believe a rate cut is around the corner and a rate cut would cause a surge in inflation. The fed sees this stuff, guys. The only wild card for us investors is to actively engage the market by trading, we always over complicate things when we speculate. It’s not about guessing the market’s next move; it’s about playing it smart and steady during trading…managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months… I’m especially grateful to Whitney Eston, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
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Venturing into new investment avenues shows your proactive approach to financial growth amidst these uncertain times. Diversifying your portfolio can help manage risks effectively.
This is why I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don’t know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert.
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