Due to the fact that of high evaluation and priced for excellence mindset, the S&P 500 is a dangerous investment now.
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That’s bullshit mate
thanks for sharing!
What is the correlation between PE and returns for next 12 months, 36 months, 10 year
Exactly 0
It even was 0 in Graham’s times. You think market is not capable of doing this simple division when estimating future returns?
the further you go in time, the stronger the relation is!
That’s actually not true at all, the correlation is pretty strong actually.
The correlation for the next 12 months is probably quite small. The correlation over the next 10 years is probably high.
@@Value-Investing
Yes, I agree, but you have to go into decades/centuries to even observe weak correlation of 0.57 that and this analysis described even shorter timespan.
Let’s assume this is the one time Jeremy Grantham is actually right, so what if I am investing for the next 30 years? I mean it, so what? what do you expect me to do as an average Joe?
good question! To the average Joe, my message is to think about one’s money – what is the best one can do with that to reach a certain goal, what risks can one take etc. If the market is down 50% – can you buy more? Can you handle that, that is the most important question!
Forget about the sp500, which will likely lose you money going forward. Invest in China duds instead, which will do it with more certainty.
thanks for sharing your opinion
@@Value-InvestingIt is just frustrating. The growth has stalled, the margins still seem to be there, but at these levels they should be repurchasing shares a lot more aggressively, and they don’t. The negativity is endless on all fronts, and it just seems to get worse week after week. At what point do you just bail and move on?
@@mathewwilson9776It depends on what made you buy to begin with. If you bought because you hoped that you could sell later at a higher price, then you made a mistake… because that strategy relies on predicting price movements which is impossible to do reliably. What one CAN do, is calculate intrinsic value and buy shares in a company based on expected distribution of free cash flow.
That price will tend towards intrinsic value on long enough timescales and that you will probably be able to sell at a higher price at a later point is besides the point, because price movements can be highly irrational for a long time.
The output of all this is simple: don’t buy shares in companies that you aren’t happy to hold forever (unless/ until fundamentals change). You must ask yourself that question. Are you happy to hold the company for an extended period of time at the current market cap, or at an even lower market cap? If not then you should sell and buy companies for which you are.
Personally I’m overjoyed with BABA’s price movements, it amplifies the effects of share buybacks and allows me to accumulate more for less money. May the price fall further… But that’s me, do what works for you.
@@mathewwilson9776once you bail out the chinese market will recover x). Buy high sell low, you know the rules
Not sure I feel about this. Then again, the average P/E in my portfolio is 7 (GM, T, BMW, CIB & WBD).
:-)))
Sven getting on the click bait bandwagon these days. The days of quality content are over.
You have Intel, Adm, full Lithium sector etc., all published this month, all for free – I don’t know what more do you expect?