S&P 500 Earnings Down 25% Will Crash The Market! Wall Street Too BULLISH!!!

Wall Street is too bullish when it concerns quotes. Provided the circumstance, a 25% decline in S&P 500 revenues might crash the marketplace much more over the next year or two.

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S&P 500 Earnings Down 25% Will Crash The Market! Wall Street Too BULLISH!!!

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41 Comments

  1. In the GFC the S&P500 earnings were down 20%. Perhaps this an upcoming crisis will be worse, but I think it’s unlikely considering the fed will step in before that level of deflation happens.

    Still possible though and interesting to think about!

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Oh woops I misremembered that as a 20% drop, thanks for correcting!

  2. Hi Sven!
    Where does the Stanley Druckenmiller analysis comes from? Where can I find it?

    Thank you, great video as always!!

  3. Druckenmillers current assets in 13 F are mostly High PE, low or no cash flow companies. Not sure what he is evaluating.

  4. On the other hand, companies with a good chunk of earnings in USD, costs in other currencies, low debt and low energy costs should do well, right?

    1. No. Everything rises and sinks together. Value stocks only ever become value stocks by being chronically undervalued for an extended period of time

  5. Welp… at least an earnings crash would take care of the inflation problem. Then we lower interest rates and the debt crisis gets put off another decade or so.

  6. Highly rational and informative content, thanks alot. What would Seth Klarman think of a situation -50% from now…

  7. The “stimulus” was a joke. A lot us of didn’t get those lousy $600 checks or whatever they were and hardly compensated for the huge losses in income for many people caused by useless lockdowns that governments imposed.

    1. true. we hear the plus of the stimulus checks, but not the minus of the pandemic throwing the economy into chaos.

  8. Hi Sven! Thanks for the video)
    What about an update on META? It’s getting cheaper and cheaper. Would love to hear your thoughts

  9. When I think that the SP500 could get that low, at first I’m sorry for all they money that I have invested, but then I get really excited thinking that I will have more money available to invest in a couple of years from now. Living well withing our means, for now, is the wisest investment we can make.

  10. Thanks Sven, nice video
    My thoughts – don’t forget WACC and/or risk free rate.
    Analysts and companies tend to either use WACC or the risk free rate (3, 5 or 10 year US Treasury rate) in their formulas to calculate future cash flows, when the risk free rate or cost of capital goes up, the returns from those calculations goes down.
    When interest rates go higher all those lovely projects people were pouring cheap debt into no longer look so attractive.

  11. How come this year’s S&P 500 earnings are reported through March 2022? When will it update to the more recent months?

  12. Running into a similar issue with META. A value based on TTM earnings shows it’s undervalued, but if earnings revert to 2019 numbers, which I believe is likely, all of sudden it’s not so undervalued.

    1. Possibly, but do you really think that their earnings in five years will be like in 2019? Most likely not

      All that needs to happen in 5 years for Meta to double is 25% increase in earnings, 15 pe (about 1.5 from now) and about 10% total buyback.

      (1.25*1.5) divided by 0.9 and you got yourself more than 2 times share price.

      Is it certain? hell no, but we are playing a game of probabilities.

  13. For us Europeans the S&P500 isn’t even down LTM. Feels good to be European and not losing any money while US people are down 🙂

  14. We’re playing patient poker game and night is young. Is like having full stack of money in Macau playing with drunk Chinese. Just wait to get premium combination and than go all in. It would be ridiculous trying to win small bets risking position of chip leader.

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