S&P 500 at 10k by 2030 No Matter Interest Rates!

There is a lot of talk about the market and interest rates. Nevertheless, I think the significant drivers of financial investment returns in the future will be shocks, be it monetary, financial or other. Absolutely nothing works linearly and the service to debt and issues will likely again be money printing.

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at 10k by 2030 No Matter Interest Rates!

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27 Comments

  1. I committed a cardinal sin and sold my 401k index funds into high yield money market at S&P 5200. For weeks I had deep regret, but now I wonder if just keeping it there until we see a correction is the wisest approach? I have always fantasized about catching a reasonable top while interest rates were high until they eventually ease…

  2. I’m earning 5.2% on 25k on my T212 account. Just waiting for a significant drop on the S&P 500 to start a position!

    1. same here. However it’s important to know that the 5.2% is not covered by financial compensation scheme in case of failure of money fins provider. It’s not like a regular cash isa.

  3. Would be interesting to get your opinion on Boeing – probably the most hated stock now. Current issues are real but Boeing has bigger moat than any other US large cap. The whole civilian aircraft building industry is effectively duopoly with Airbus which is fully booked till 2030 and demand for planes ever increasing, especially in developing world. No new competitors are coming into the market as the entry point is sky high and requires both financial and political intervention from a government of a major state.
    In my opinion, given the moat, future demand for planes and, if things stay bad, intervention from US government, Boeing is an interesting stock to own long term.
    Please, let us know what you think

  4. 0% real return is worse than it sounds. The governament does not vare that the REAL value of your savings the same as before,.they still charge ypu a capital gains tax

  5. The buffet indicator needs to be taken with caution. It can rise just because a company decides to go public or public companies take some market share from private companies in the same segment. Its not directly tracking valuations

  6. Keep investing in index and don’t waste time to find the right horses… at least you will save your money from inflation.

  7. One may lose their mind somewhere between research and the execution of a strategy. Some people seem able to look at a compound annual growth rate, maximum draw down, sharpe ratios, and all of the other ratios and sketch a forecast of their future returns. I’m not so convinced. If you think predicting a day of returns is hard, imagine thinking you know in advance the daily returns needed to calculate compounding for the next several years.

    1. Ok, I thought about this a bit more. This is probably why portfolio managers spend time tracking, tracking, tracking, against measures and benchmarks to see if they will meet or exceed the forecasted returns. Not easy if you’re just one person, though.

    2. Yeah, fixed income must be a heck of a lot easier. Why am I replying to myself? Who cares? It’s still engagement.

  8. So do you recommend that we keep buying small amounts into the indexes no matter what and save the rest aside waiting for a crash? (Ex: $400/month invested and $800 cash instead of the full $1000 invested)?

  9. Sven, when you say about zero return in 70s you do not take into account reinvesting of dividends. Right? I mean if we add to this calculation dividends and this dividends were comparatively high it could show another picture of real return. Am I right?

  10. It’s a good time to increase investments in indexes and good stocks, and not to have much cash or bonds. Any correction is a buying opportunity.

  11. US inflation has been 2% excluding shelter for months, IRs shouldn’t be this high now, let alone even higher

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