The JPM guide to markets is out for Q4 2024. We discuss the market, the economy, inflation, interest rates and how to invest.
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You are awesome.
🙂
As always, thank you for your content 🙂
Glad you enjoy it!
sven- let me tell you something, let me tell you something haha
:-))
The emerging markets are highly penetrated by big us companies like , meta , google , amazon with cloud. that buying the Sp500 gives a good hedge for emerging market economies as well. for example if alot of people use facebook in Nigeria / india or use youtube in india. Alphabet/ meta will profit alot of it. so I think stock market/us gdp ratio and PE ratios are a bit of the past
thanks for sharing!
Hello Sven. The next relevant Fibonacci extension of the subjacent structures of the SPX is 4.236 and that is 7100 to 7300. Nothing will happen until then imo. What FED will do (because is behavior in chart) is take USINTR, that has already double bottom, to 11 or 12%, because is the high at left. Greetings.
thanks for sharing!
Hello Swen, could you comment companies like Booking or Mariott? They have high valuations, still PEG ratio is low.
thanks for suggesting!
People will realize how true Sven’s assessments are within next 1 year. The gravy Train is gonna go off track soon. Hope you all get out before this happens.
He predicted the next year crash since 2019.
we don’t know when will it happen, but you never know
Possibly you are righr, possibly not..imagine missing out on 2023/24 for the same fear..not a situation you wanna be in)
Ohh you’re the guy who will miss out on a 100% return and tell everyone the rapture is coming to feel warm inside when you can buy in on a normal 25-30% correction once or twice a decade 😂
Thi is great, thanks! Can you maybe do a series on emerging markets, and go into India tech stocks?
India not, very expensive, EM is what I do!
Tremendous, thanks!
in 2024 SP 500 index is dominated by tech with double digit revenue/earning growth. Obviously for high growth companies higher PE ratio. Whats the point comparing with 1980 SP 500 where dominant companies were probably industrials with lower growth rate and lower PE ratio. SP 500 is obviously due for correction but not apocalypses.
Absolutely right! According to this logic, I recommend to you always to pay the highest ratio for the highest growing stocks! (But high growing on what?)
thanks for sharing!
Great content Sven. I think that the key to not being affected by a recession is diversification. I own 1/3 US stocks 1/3 Europe Stocks and 1/3 Emerging markets Stocks
that is also a strategy!!
If it was as easy as glancing at charts and figuring out what’s cheap vs expensive, we would all be billionaires by now. But it doesn’t work like that. Multiples are heuristics and with any shortcuts, there will be blind spots.
Firstly, multiples are a non-stationary data series. Why is this important? Well, an analyst can only correctly compare today to the past if the statistical properties of the underlying are the same or stationary. All of the statistical properties in the index and its multiple over time change (companies are not the same, tax rates are not the same, margins are not the same, the strength of competitive advantage and durability of them isn’t the same, etc, etc).
of course, but it is a start!
No, it promotes first order thinking
hello sven, thank you for all the videos im learning a lot. Now my question would be if you could give thoughts on what one should invest in. I know it is up to myself but im am fairly new to the investing journey and there are a lot of things in the last 2 years that sear through the mind. For example buying flats for renting or buying gold and silver, also just the immense quantity on stocks there are.
Thank you!
how to start investing today? Good idea!
This is to be expected. The cap rates on real estate properties have gone from 9% in the mid 90’s to 4% today. As the wealthy compete to accumulate assets from the middle class they slowly settle for lower expected returns. This is why the Buffett indicator and the Schiller PE charts are trending up and to the right while historical averages no longer work. It is indeed crazy but the rich need to find places to put their money so this trend is going to continue. In the words of the aviator “it’s the way of the future”
Thanks for commenting!
Wow.. you put a lot of work into this! Thank you!
not much, it just comes naturally…
There is a saying, “time in the market is far more important than timing the market.” Apparently Sven doesn’t agree.
This is a mantra regurgitated by the average investor, not an investment thesis. It relies on the hope that markets only go up and will continue to only go up. Investing has nothing to do with hope.
Speaking of the average investor, the JPM guide used to include a slide featuring his long-term annualized return: in line with inflation. Why do you think that is?
There is another saying from a guy that has done pretty good for more than 70 years: successful investing only requires that you take a few good ideas throughout your lifetime and that you take them seriously, which is incompatible with being cluelessly invested in everything all the time, keeping your fingers crossed that things keep going up for no reason.
Yes, but one must stay fully invested, except when he isn’t
🙂
This video could be retitled “sour grapes for not buying the SPY”. If Sven would have bought the SPY 2 years ago he would be way up on it and if it drops 20% he would still have made money.
Instead, he accumulated good Chinese equities at absurdly low multiples, has been collecting 7-10% dividends and will likely 2-3x his capital if/when multiples normalize.
From what he said in an earlier video, that was 40% of the portfolio.
He will likely also collect a 50-70% dividend in the next few months from another major holding.
And then he has mentioned a few times that he has a hedge: if you scan his covered stocks, there is only one that looks like a hedge and it can easily double in the event of a market crash.
Meanwhile, the S&P500 trades at a 36x Shiller PE: 15-year annualized returns from such multiples are near 0.
He is investing, not speculating. You have plenty of other channels to speculate and reinforce your goofy belief that no multiple is high enough.
Thanks Mathew!
@@Value-Investing Thank you for all the teaching over the years.
It’s not madness; it’s wealth inequality.
Rich people have more money than fits within reasonable investments, so assets valuations have become unreasonable.
thanks for sharing!
Here’s the translation:
“To contextualize this madness in the markets, it would be useful to research the average number of people who traded in the markets over the years, and what their average capital was. The data could surprise us because I think there are many more people trading today with a higher average capital: this pushes valuations ever higher.”
more money means: inflation! that is 100% correct!
Your videos are like a book that you can not stop reading👍🔥
thanks!
🗽 Yes Sven, RACE (Ferrari NV) has expected growth of about 10%, but the PE expected is 45. 🙈
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🙂