Stock exchange guide for Q3 2024 – we take a look at the economics, rates, the FED's balance sheet, stock exchange appraisals and go over where to invest!
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0:00 Guide To Markets.
0:29 The Market ATH.
3:31 The Economy.
7:20 Rate of interest.
9:41 Appraisals.
11:58 Investing.
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I retire next year and I had a huge run in energy stocks from 2020 with appreciation and dividends- more than a triple . Sold as they closed in on their highs earlier this year but the oil price did not match 2022. The market is topping if it already hasn’t . Can’t justify the drawdown risk .
If you bought energy stocks in 2020 you must have made a lot of money. I bought all of them but then sold in 2021
I share that same opinion. I’ve been reducing my positions in several ETFs and I am even contemplating selling stocks I bought based on the fundamentals. Buffet is sitting on a pile of cash, and there’s no way I’m smarter than him… therefore, it’s time to get out.
I happened to watch your JPM video from 2022-q1 last night. Projected EPS for 2022, 2023 and 2024 were 225, 250 and 275. It is no wonder those forward PEs are always so low.
I also watched Tom Lee (always take it with a grain of salt…) this week on a video saying that by year end, SPY earnings should be reaching 285 (we seem to be on track for that if there is no earnings recesion), so if you slap a 20 PE on that number we will end the year at 5700 for the S&P500. I don’t know where do those earnings estimates come from but if those numbers are legit, SPY is not even that expensive.
@@luigigetsu Those are rosy consensus analyst projections, designed to make things look cheap. My comment above shows the consensus estimates as of 2022-q1!
sp500 ACTUAL eps as of 2024-q1 is 197. Focus on reality and forget about estimates, or else keep dreaming.
It’s funny how people don’t even know what actual eps is, but do not hesitate to base their investments on whatever analyst projections they see on tv, however outlandish they are.
If current eps is 197, it needs to grow at 21% in both 2024 and 2025 in order to hit 285 by the end of 2025… It’s just foolish.
What an amazing, relevant, thought-provoking video! Thank you Sven. Things aren’t looking great and a visible disconnect with the market behaviour.
On the P/E differential between the US and non-US markets. Can’t this in part be explained by the makeup of those markets, i.e. the US is full of high multiple tech companies while other markets will have more basic industries such as mining in the UK?
Japan, China, UK, India, etc. have also traded at idiotik multiples in the past. Subsequent returns were always poor.
The last time US traded at today’s multiples it was also a result of high-multiple tech companies and you see how it ended: with 14 years of 0% returns.
In order to earn a return from an idiotik multiple, you need sustained double-digit growth, sustained high margins and sustained idiotik multiples. That is a whole lot to need and turns an investment into a mere bet.
Just out of morbid curiosity, who owns the US Federal Debt? $1,915 billion is a lot of money! Who’s reaping the reward?
66% owned by american people. 33% by foreign govts.
I am reaping the reward from US debt. I buy US Treasuries. It’s a good way to park some cash. It’s easy to do, check with your broker. When you hear that Warren Buffet is holding billions in cash, that cash is in US Treasuries.
@@user-xw3vi4nk2y Thank you for your answer. When you say “American people”, do you mean retail investors? Or financial institutions?
@@obijuan3004 You’re a smart fella, thank you for your answer. But aren’t US Treasuries just a fraction of the total debt?
What is your view on REIT’s in this environment? They are down significantly and pay attractive dividends. (Canada/USA)
Good time to invest in REITs
difficult years for value investors when so many stocks seem over priced.
Small caps are cheap. Strip out AI and big tech, then it doesn’t look pretty
Try your chance out of the USA.
E.g. compare value stocks like Stellantis or Verallia to their American counterparts Ford/GM or O-I Glass, and you’ll notice both a jump in quality and decrease in PER
I plotted the returns of Voo in the backtest of various points in the last 25 years where a P/E ratio was above 25. Everytime I got decent or great returns meaning 8-13%. Current P/E ratio isnt useful in predicting stock returns.
8-13% returns for the next 3 months? 2 years? Or 10 years?
@@horizonez till today, per annum. Plot it in some backtesting tool, I used european backtesting tool (CSPX).
I would really like to see some videos comparing US economy to European, and the USD vs Euro. And why money is flowing into US stocks and not Eu stocks.
Great idea!
Great job Sven on sharing your insights.
Amazing to see how many strategists/economists are bearish – JPM just fired their head strategist – and the US stock market doesn’t care yet!
Just imagine the size of the QE bazookas from G7 central banks when equity markets tank – maybe Covid QE stimuli will look prudent and well-calibrated in comparison! Get ready for Quadrillions as Trillions may become an outdated unit of measure?😷
The biggest thing that’s different this time is the money printing. I gotta imagine that has a huge effect.
Except that the Fed is not printing but rather tightening, and that has now been the case for several quarters.
ATM Buffett is only parked at 5,5%. 182 billion waiting on something worthwhile…
Remember, this is the same guy that recommended BABA at $220
outcome quality does not equal decision quality
could go 300
If you look at weighted S&P 500 it’s flat
It’s simple. When you are a longterm investor, spend less than you earn & just keep compounding the S&P500 (VOO or SPY) and stay the course. If you have a certain wealth accumulated and your focus is on wealth preservation, buy & keep VOO as long as the index is above its EMA200 and sell it when it drops below to avoid heavier drawdowns. Get back in when it gets back above the EMA200.
Enjoy life! Happy Sunday.
A very good video – informative and concise – thank you.
Here is my investor opinion. The economy is doing very well; 26 month historically low unemployment, wage growth, lots of open jobs, exciting new technology. This is happening while the Fed interest rate averages 5.3% for the last 12 months. Should the economy decline soon, the Fed has lots of room to drop interest rates to stoke the economic fires. While the market could have 10-15% pull back; IMO, most people will be buying the dip. ENJOY!
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