There has actually been no economic crisis in the US given that 2009 and 2012 in Europe. I am not counting the 2 months pandemic economic downturn. The question now is when will the next economic crisis exist, how bad will the recession be and what will happen to financiers.
0:00 LAST RECESSION
1:13 WHY NO MORE
4:38 NEXT RECESSION
6:34 RECESSION IMPACT
7:53 FED POWER
11:00 HOW TO INVEST
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1:51 Bitcoin market cap.
Keep investing at the Casino.
🙂
inflation adjusted? your graph doesnt look inflation adjusted.
for real GDP? yes it is, it is real GDP
We have kids restaurants called “chuck e cheese’s” and they have the tokens for all the games. It’s basically how MMT is supposed to work up until it doesn’t
:-)))
There were 2 quarters of negative growth in 2020 and then again in 2022. So technically we’ve had 2 recessions only in the last 4 years!
And a recession is likely within the next 12 months.
Exactly, I hate when someone ignores the definitions when they don’t fit the current narrative.
thanks for sharing
Not a great video to be honest Sven. Markets go in cycles a lot like Volcanos erupt in cycles nobody can consistently predict them even if they have been consistent in the past. My approach is to be a defensive investor so when recessions come you won’t get killed so you can leave compounding do it’s thing. That way you don’t need to waste time worrying about recessions or shills like Ray Dalio.
Dalio’s “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” makes some excellent points and is a good framework for understanding the big picture, long term cycles, and the current and coming changes. Look at the big five changes Sven highlights in this video. It’s true and it’s apt.
thanks for sharing!
Great video as always!
Glad you enjoyed!
I agree, bottom-up investing style create less timing anxiety.
🙂
This time, the fed has more than 5% power to lower the interest rates to prevent/postpone the recession. No?
you need a bit more time for the 5% to have an effect on the economy etc. It is not all linear!
There has been a recession in my portfolio, from following the main picks of Sven for the last 3 years off his platform. Actually very impressive to keep on coming up with losers time and again, whilst the American market hits new highs.
it is a different investing strategy
Buying at the right price also doesn’t matter in a recession or depression. Everything will go down. However, history shows that the overpriced growth stocks will get hit the hardest. This is why dividend investing is also valuable. When the market blows its top (not if…when), you may as well get paid a solid dividend while you wait for the business to recover. When ADM took a 30% haircut, I bought it. Great company, great dividend, at a fair price.
that is the strategy!
We currently live in a world of unlimited money printing and debt issuing. Recession? An ugly thing of the past. It will not happen any more for the foreseeable future. Perhaps just a mild one every quite several years. Who will come in 50+ years time will deal with the world implosion. Not a problem for the nowadays adult generations. In the meantime pack up the portfolio buying stocks regardless valuation such as the Magnificent 7, Eli Lilly, SMCI, NFLX and similar stuff. Just follow the herd and jump from a bubble to the next bubble without being too greedy. Money is made and lost in financial bubbles. The world is full of idiots and will always be. Value investing is dead
thanks for sharing, usually the best time to be a value investor is when value investing is dead!!!
Recessions create opportunities. I think people are more aware, now, and see the true value in financial assets. Anybody watching your channel, probably has a list of stock they’d gladly buy at a 50 percent or steeper discount
that is for sure, but most people don’t watch my channel 🙂
Great time to pickup stocks. Terrible time to find work, loss of income, failure of businesses, lower taxes which means less investments in public (eg. schools/ hospitals/ roads), so overall if you do have the extra money to spend, great time to pick up the stocks, terrible time to live in… Goodluck, may the odds be in your favor.
Great video and thank you for sharing your insights! I really admire how you continuously find innovative ways to convey the message on investing – fantastic job. As a long-time follower, I’ve noticed that there hasn’t been much discussion on BABA recently. Do you have any plans to revisit this topic in your upcoming content?
when the time comes 🙂
Interesting stuff! Thank you for the perspective.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Everynight before bed, I pray too Keynes for no more recessions ever.
hahaha
Excellent video Sven
Many thanks!
Hi Sven, thanks for sharing! Have you perhaps read Capital Returns by Ed Chancellor? His approach on focusing on supply-side to investing seems very reasonable
I will check it out
How about an educational video on how and why free cash flow is different than net income and how we should take these numbers inyo account for a company?
Thanks for the video Sven! To the point as always. Quoting Howard Marks: “A few times in my career, I’ve seen the rise of a belief that risk has been banished, cycles won’t occur any longer, or the laws of economics have been suspended. The experienced, risk-conscious investor takes this as a sign of great danger.” (The Most Important Thing Illuminated)
Recessions of any type, econ down turn is Important. But unknowable. It means you trying timing the market, which seems impossible.