Netflix Crashes On Bad Guidance And Bill Ackman SOLD (Discussing the situation)

crashed and Costs Ackman offered his stake yesterday and lost $400 million altering his investment thesis. However the secret here is how it fits your since it appears everyone has actually quit on Netflix while it may not be that bad after all. The management doesn't change in a month from fantastic to bad, the consumers are still there so to me it appears primarily like just Wall Street. So, the secret here is to see how at the minute fits your requirements.

0:30 Netflix Stock Price
1:13 Business
3:18 Profits Update
4:57 Wall Street
7:11 Netflix Stock
9:03 Netflix Assessment
10:31 NFLX vs FB

I didn't understand Bill offered when making this video so I made a quick update here:

Netflix preliminary video analysis from February 2022
FB stock analysis

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Netflix Crashes On Bad Guidance And Bill Ackman SOLD (Discussing the situation)

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  1. In order to get out of a $1B position they must of started selling soon after they bought! Thanks for the video!!

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. From what I see, the volume was ~133milions. The Bilions are in Crypto :)).

  2. Today also Warner Bross relased their earnings (with AT&T) and contrary to Netflix their subsciber rose more by 3 mln. So basically the whole bad economy macrotrends is a little blown out. The real issue is that the competition is pushing down on Netflix.

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. yes but there is also a more profound weakness. The expenditures of Netflix were cut due to higher costs which resulted in higher margins but now it shows that despite better financials subscriber is lower. So really the buisness is struggling more content expenditures means worse EPS and FCF but they can keep up with the subscriber to the competition. Either way it seems a lost cause for the shareholders.

  3. I think NFLX is a great company to park my money. Couldn’t bring myself to pay a massive premium. But I’ll certainly begin buying now.

    1. I bought in at $220. Small position. Will probably fall a little further in the next quarter. Good accumulation phase in my opinion.

    2. @Myles Gray oh that’s great yes it’s good company but competition may kill it in future by the way from which city you belong to ?

  4. Hahah, Sven has gotten some respect in the value investing circles when Warren is ”jumping in” to comment to his videos 😅 Thanks for the video again!

  5. Just shows how dangerous unashamed cloning is if you followed Bill Akman in to Netflix, thinking ‘oh he’s Bill Akman he’s made billions over the years, he must be right’ 😣

    1. It’s not just that Bill Ackman bought, but Reed Hastings the CEO of NFLX also bought $20 million worth at $393.00.

    2. Cloning is a good starting point for screening possible investments. There are 90000+ stocks worldwide, why not look at the one’s very good investors like Pabrai, Nygren,Akre or Sven already took a deep dive into.

      Buffett holds VZ, I don’t get what he sees…and that’s totally fine.

      PSquare has Domino’s….I don’t get it at these prices….Ackman is an aggressive investor.

  6. I have to say, it takes guts for him to write about his mistakes: I’m wrong, my thesis has changed, let’s move on to the next one. We can all learn a lot from him.

  7. In my view, making movies is a form of art. If you pump up the production numbers it will affect quality which I think is key for netflix to keep their user base. I am not sure their product will be good enough for a long period of time, therefore I am staying away.

  8. Bill did what retail needs to learn. If you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade sell it. Don’t hope and shy away from taking a significant loss.
    You can be stuck in it for months if you hope for your price to come back.

    1. It’s not about being “on the wrong side of a trade”, it’s about your business expectations for your valuation falling apart. You could be in the green and learn stuff about the company that changes your valuation prompting a sell and admission of mistake. Obviously it’s more common when your in the red, as bad news can take the price down short term, but being in the red is not at all correlated with whether your business expectations are being met or not

  9. Wow, it takes some guts to come out and basically say that “I f%$@#d up”. But what can you do when a growth stock turns into a shrinkage stock overnight?? Lick you wounds and move on.
    I seriously considered getting into NFLX last summer at around $500 and kicked myself when it hit $700 in the Fall.

  10. Netflix is the best platform by far. But over the last few years I doubted the growth potential. It’s widely spread, there’s not much room to grow significantly. Same goes for the competition. Now they still have room to grow because they are relatively small. But once they get big, growth is gone.

  11. Funny that I have pointed out in the comments on the earlier video about Ackmans purchase on a dip, that it was still overpriced and he will regret this decision. It didn’t take him long to reconsider. Guess what, NFLX is still overpriced, I would not even consider it above 200$

  12. “Thanks for jumping in, Warren” 😅
    And thanks Sven. Feels like it’s time to add Netflix to the stock “watchlist”.

  13. Hi Sven, thank you for sharing your point of view. It is not clear to me why did you consider 5B in FCF for your valuation, if in the past 10 years they never managed to get positive cash flow except for year 2020?
    Net income in 2021 was 5B, not free cash flow.
    Thank you for your feedback.

    1. that was the expectation, that revenues grow and capex stays flat which should lead to FCF

  14. It all depends on the price payed for the company. If the stock goes down further, say 30%. Then I can easily see it as a investment opportunity. But now now.

  15. Thank you. Great content, as always. IMO facebook is still to be preferred to netflix: 1)way stronger balance sheet, arguably the best of Wall Street; 2) huge capacity of generating free cash flow even with decreasing users; 3) less competitors, also tick tock formats are less suitable to monetize ads; 4) reality labs is still very small, but its revenues grow exponentially

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