My Model Predicts Crash of 46.7% Bottoming Only In August 2023!!!

A stock market of 46.7% is certainly something possible. However, there is something more crucial than that when it comes to having a reasonable view on investing!

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My Model Predicts Crash of 46.7% Bottoming Only In August 2023!!!

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29 Comments

    1. 👆ʟᴇᴛ’s ᴛᴀʟᴋ ɴᴏᴡ۩۩ :, 👆👆
      Thanks for viewing and contributing!.

  1. When I see a video hyping a stock market crash, I generally skip over them. I know it’s only about getting views. You’re probably the only one I will watch when it comes to that subject.

    1. Same here, I was curious about his model, but I knew it likely won’t be right and I just keep my accumulation up

  2. Good point Sven, although the past 2 years you have been on naive/unwary side of potential downside coming. I actually think your title will be about correct for the S&P measured from its top in Dec 2021. Of course, over-optimism will work usefully the other way: when the USA economy bottoms and starts to recover we will probably need to be back in the market at least 6 months before (forward looking markets).

    1. there is always a downside coming, it has been like that since 2009. With your approach, you would not have invested in 2009!

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. There might be something to be said for joining a trend rather than trying to catch falling knives (often get REKD), like even if one only caught on to the uptrend by 2011-2012. Also don’t fight the FED. || But yea, who knows where charts will go in the future. It seems a lot easier in hindsight. Thanks for your great content Sven!

  3. That’s why I initially subscribed to your channel Sven. An Objective and honest view of the market and its current conditions. IMHO If you do the same videos as everyone else you will loose your credibility. Keep up the good work!

  4. We’re still with you Sven! Keep cranking out the good information and let the doomers watch the doom channels. #learntoinvest

    1. 🔝Thanks for viewing and contributing, I’ll share some beneficial knowledge ⬆♥️♥️♥️

  5. Professor Carlin, we’re still here, we’re still listening, we’re still investing in quality businesses with a margin of safety. Most importantly, we as still learning. Do not be discouraged about those who leave, investing is a 15 year journey at a minimum

    1. 🔝Thanks for viewing and contributing, I’ll share some beneficial knowledge ⬆♥️♥️♥️

  6. Love your videos!! Personally I’m just hoping the market will be at least this level or higher in the next 20 years…it’s not an easy process to follow, most people think investing is a crazy thing to do..

    1. 👆ʟᴇᴛ’s ᴛᴀʟᴋ ɴᴏᴡ۩۩ :, 👆👆
      Thanks for viewing and contributing!.

  7. The algorithms are biased and certainly incentivizing, and for good reason. As behavioral economics has found, negative news is responded to 2 1/2 times more strongly than positive. Or as you put it, fear is a more powerful motivator.

    This negative bias has a survival advantage in nature. Unfortunately in the artificial world of media, it is easy to exploit, and become self reinforcing – both externally and internally.

    Note: Cute use of decimal percentage point and month/year for illusion of accuracy. You do know how to work the system.

  8. Sven, I love how down to earth, transparent and reasonable you are. It makes you sound very reliable. Congratulations and keep up the great work.

  9. When my monthly additions to portfolio went from 1% of the portfolio value to 2% of the portfolio value without earning any more money. It’s awesome lol

  10. Happy to see your still having fun with the channel. Your lessons are not wasted on some of us 😉 all the best to the family.

  11. Pure facts! Thanks for staying rational rather than chase the money everyday with insane often false and misinterpreted data

  12. I just finished One up on Wall Street. Lynch got asked “Is it a good market right now?” tousands of times and this is a variation on the crash-fascination that people have had since the first of those crashes hundreds of years ago. Except, today with YouTube or TikTok, you get so many of these prediction videos that feed upon people’s anxiety. The biggest obstacle of contemporary investors is the overwhelming amount of information out there.

  13. I started watching your video couple months back. I like the information you presented and the way you analyzed the stocks with risks & rewards. Please keep up the good work!!

  14. Love the vids, as always. Topic of macro predictions goes well with Howard Marks’ last memo. Sven, you’ve lowered risk and added reward for me today 🙂

  15. Thank you Sven for the great content that you always make and for preaching the unbiased view that we should have when investing because it all resumes to rational decisions and not doom and gloom when buying or selling stocks. Keep up the good work!

  16. Thank you Sven, critical thinking and self-reflection are incredibly important, now more than ever. When I got the notification for your new video I was curious about the model but i knew you don’t know what happens with the market nine months from now.
    I simply keep my optimism up about what the future may bring and drip feed into my brokerage account to make investments when I see fit.

  17. Sven is 100% right! And remember folks, it’s not just YouTube and investing. Similarly, the media influences our political values the same way, no matter how smart you think you are.

    But with investing, this influence is measurable.

    Personally, I’ve noticed my investments become red when I “due diligence” too much and read too much about a stock.

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