JPM Q4 2022 Market Overview – RECESSION AHEAD – INVESTING is Medium Risk Medium Reward ?!?!

JPM Q4 Market Overview – The Economy, Market Valuations, Inflation, Strong Dollar, FED, Inverted Yield Curve …

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JPM Q4 2022 Market Overview – AHEAD – INVESTING is Medium Risk Medium Reward ?!?!

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24 Comments

  1. I’m amazed how you condensed and clearly explained your analysis in less than 30 minutes. Thank you so much.

  2. Job markets are currently really resistant to these hikes since wage inflation is much lower than inflation. I point my finger to government spending which got loose all over the world after these extra covid spendings.

  3. Hi Sven! Your videos are always a pleasure to watch. I hope JPM is right, because I’m trying to “time the market” :)) I’m looking at some interesting micro cap German companies that are doing well, but I hope that there will be a little saleoff at the end of the year 🙂 Have a nice weekend 😉 Oh and btw, do you think that there is something in Western Union? (WU) p/e 6, Div 7% market cap now at 5.2B, New CEO….

  4. One of the best out there on You Tube! Really appreciate the concise content and honesty. Great consistency and philosophy!

  5. At 14:50, 4% of $30T should be $1.2T annually, not $1.2B if you use the American nomenclature. Millions, billion, trillions… I guess it doesn’t matter that much anymore. 🙂Actually, I wonder if I will live long enough to see a debt of $1 quadrillion, that’s only 5 more doubles. So assuming a double every 6 years, I would be 82 years when this milestone is reached.

  6. 3:21 look at that spike the last 2 years. I mean just look at it. It is obvious that that is unsustainable.

    But you have to live through it to recognise it next time.

    It would be a simple matter to time the market if a spike like that ever appeared again. Unfortunately it will take 10 years before it appears again. Never knock old peoples experience.

  7. Nice video and I thank you for breaking it down!! Despite the economic recession, I’m so happy 😊I have been earning $ 60,000 returns from my $8,000 investment on short period

  8. The last time annual inflation was as high as in 2021 was 1989. The trailing S&P pe was under 12x. The last time inflation was as high as 2022 was 1982. S&P under 8x *trailing*. Average those out and you get a bottom around 10x , between 2500 – 2000 on the S&P. It may not happen that way this time. But it for sure can, because it has before.

  9. I think Sven meant 1.2 Trillion not Billion. The 4% interest rate only effects new borrowings and refinancing, it doesn’t effect the entire outstanding debt.

  10. I love that you issue so many videos nowadays 👍 I enjoy them a lot and do not have to wait several days 👏👏👏

  11. Very nice outlook, I think it is not really a surprise for anyone that recession is coming. The question remains what are the best investments for this environment. Not only historical but also taking into consideration today’s reality. I think it is a great topic to cover. In my opinion these are simply tech giants with huge moats, luxury brands retailers and real estate developers for the future to buy for cheap. Interested in your opinion.

  12. Sven, i think that the interesting discussion on federal debt you explained, it’s in contrast with Stankley Druckenmiller potential lost decade thesis. When higher interested on public debt will become a perceived issue, the FED will buy treasuries to push interest payment lower and avert apocalypse. What that happens, stocks will go higher. Maybe nominally higher, but still higher… do you agree?

  13. Sven, at 14:51, you have a typo: the total interest cosy at 4% is not 1.2B, but 1.2T.
    Thanks for the educational video.

    1. ah, trillion, billion :-))))) It is almost irrelevant today given the devaluation of money ……CRAZYE!!!

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. You should analyze ASTL. Cyclical Canadian steel company that just went public a little over a year ago go but have been around since 1901. 40% of their market cap is in cash, easily covered dividend dividend at around 3%, and are at about a 40% discount to book value. Good company low risk medium to high reward reward and I just don’t see us not using steel in the next 10 to 50 years. Hope to hear the analysis and your thoughts on this great company. Thanks for your time

  14. Great news on the recession!!! The sooner the better. The deeper the better. Because every time it happened in my life, I have loaded up my stock portfolio. Love the market on massive sale.

  15. Great Video Sven, market has NEVER bottomed when fed rates are going up, pain ahead as we wait for capitulation, however as you can never time the market – I will DRIP invest in equities starting soon.

  16. I appreciate your perspective and rationality, and that you share the truth about wall street, the government, and their incentives. Thank you for another interesting and educational video.

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