Is it smart to purchase stocks now as the outlook isn't positive at all! We could have an economic crisis ahead and see a far bigger crash? Some predict the stock exchange to decrease another 50%. What is the best investing method?
0:00 Investing Now
1:38 Your Investing Style
2:50 Predicting an Economic crisis
4:59 Kind of Crash
5:34 Inflationary Crash
6:36 FED Reaction
7:01 Investing 2022
S&P 500 Investing DCA
What is this channel everything about? Worth Investing:
My 5 Core Stock Market Investing Beliefs
My enthusiasm is to look for low danger high benefit investment opportunities with a long-lasting service owning like focus. I use my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find the best companies to own that use the possibility to lead me towards my monetary goals.
If you are an advanced financier trying to find in depth, independent stock analyses and investing concepts, here is my STOCK EXCHANGE RESEARCH PLATFORM (company research and threat reward analysis, stocks to purchase from my covered stocks list, my portfolio):.
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (STOCKS COVERAGE, INVESTMENT METHOD, MARKET COMMENTARY & MORE):.
Are you a financier that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Exchange Investing Course – a thorough guide to investing discussing all that matters:.
You can DOWNLOAD THE FREE COMPARATIVE STOCKS LIST AND INTRINSIC VALUE TEMPLATE on my Stock Market Research Study Platform:.
I am also a book author:.
Modern Value Investing book:.
Inspect my site to hear more about me, read my analyses and about OUR charity. (YouTube advertisement cash is contributed).
www.svencarlin.com.
Listen to Modern Worth Investing Podcast:.
I have to do with long-term investing but my wife has to do with something a lot more crucial; long-lasting health! Naturally Ana YouTube Channel:.
I typically get inquired about brokers, here is a low fee broker, a worldwide one that allows you to purchase on worldwide markets, and likewise provides complex services like choices for when your investing abilities grow. In the meantime, it is among the very best solutions I have actually found for worldwide investors, also based upon your remarks and inputs:.
Brokers video:.
A good broker for Europeans is DEGIRO, easy and it even does your taxes is some countries (Netherlands for instance):.
Always remember: "Investing involves threat of loss".
#stocks #crash #stockmarket.
Wealth Builders Club Secrets Revealed – Click Here to Discover the #1 Investment Resource!
WARNING: As the channel grows (thank you all for that), there are more and more scammers impersonating me. The only thing I am selling is my Research Platform and Book https://sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
All that I do, the real links to my content are in the description of the video, I don’t give out my Whatsapp number and I don’t sell any Cryptocurrency related things! BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!
I think you’ve completely discarded the macroeconomic environment in your analysis. The Fed is being forced to create demand destruction… It’s a slightly different environment than the 20 year bull market you cited in your chart… As interest rates go up and as QT takes effect I think you’ll find yourself on my side of the aisle soon enough.
So far this year I’m not down 20%, can’t say the same for the S&P 500.
Sp500 is down 27% when you include inflation.
As your subscribers we would appreciate if you quickly read some of the top comments and their responses.
Delete any that talk about financial advisers because those posts are coming from bots
So much value in this guy! He says what he thinks it’s most logical despite all the noise in the field. Thank you!
thanks!
You should be greedy when others are greedy and fearful when others are fearful. I have sold all my ETF’s and stocks and I am hiding under the duvet until inflation goes back down. 💤💤💤
@a aa exactly. Why keep buying when it’s still crashing. Better too late then too early
I remember this joke from one of the Berkshire annual reports:
Broker: Hey Tim, thanks for coming by. Remember that stock I recommended you buy 2 years ago, the one with the good fundamentals selling at 8€share?
Tim: Yes.
Broker: very good. It tripled to 25€share because of those good fundamentals. Even better Tim, given the fundamentals today, it is even a better buy now than it was 2 year ago!
Tim: Damn it! I knew I should’ve waited.
Conclusion: If fundamentals are right, act with speed.
hahahahahaha
As always, content-oriented videos, I have been investing in the S&P since 2018. Every time the market goes down (corrections / COVID) I buy more than what I usually do on a monthly basis (I do cost-averaging)… and I never regret it as I am looking to this as a long-term investment and the discount we have now, we will not be able to buy at it in 5 or 8 years from now.
thanks for sharing!
Wise words Sven: My thoughts:
I am in my fifties and go to the gym. In their youth many of my friends were a lot fitter and stronger than me. But not now! So what changed?
Simply, I always kept turning up, training even when the weather was bad. Time did the rest. They stopped.
The same goes for investing. Always keep turning up, investing, even when the weather is bad. Time will do the rest
absolutely!!! Thanks for sharing!
very nice !!
atomic habits right there!
You’re probably the best value investing youtube channel out there.
Thank you for all the wisdom Sven!
Wow, thank you!
Thanks~~~~<☝️☝️☝️for watching if you want <
Sven and Capital Mindset are the GOATs
You mentioned the chance of a double standard-deviation correction being likely when applying historical data.
The market is still up a lot, so it would probably crash more. As I’m writing this, I realise that it just doesn’t matter.
You can’t predict anything, so you’ll have to keep buying and see your portfolio tank, as that is the only way you’ll have enough invested capital when the markets start rising again.
thanks, great comment!
I agree about timing the market. The example with the 2009 – expectations of recession and subsequent huge growth in the following years – to me it seems to be less probable to happen today because of high inflation. The FED is much more limited now as people won’t tolerate loosing the value of their money forever. I can’t imagine how could market go up with the current level of inflation.
thanks for sharing!
Thanks~~~~<☝️☝️☝️for watching if you want <
Fed doesn’t have a choice if they keep jacking up interest rates the US will be unable to pay their debt obligations.
Good talk, Sven! Exploring for value in any crisis is key to success. Actually, I was buying every month this year like in 2020. I read Buffet’s latest trades, Citigroup must be his call, seems interesting, I started a position on Friday.
thanks for sharing!
Thanks~~~~<☝️☝️☝️for watching if you want <
Agree. But be sure to invest on the right companies, since a lot of others will be gone during the recession…
absolutely!
Thanks~~~~<☝️☝️☝️for watching if you want <
I have a few observations for Sven.
First, inflation affects real value of everything, not only cash. Therefore inflation adjusted stock prices are down this year by significantly more then what it looks from nominal values.
Second, I noticed last year you tent to advice to be all-in stocks or close without reminding to be careful in suggesting to significantly switch to cash as soon as the major macro parameters would signal it could be the case to do so if willing to be cautious. Investing in a crash is very good for future returns, but you can do it in big terms only if you have a lot of cash available as % of your financial assets. And to be big in cash-cash equivalent (let’s say at least 50%) you must prepare it before the start of the decline or soon after (cash from additional income savings over the decline are not expected to have any significant impact during the course of a few months compared to go big in cash from liquid financial assets if one has a large portfolio).
Third, you don’t account of the impact of the drawdown in anyone portfolio (which I always consider including cash). Therefore it is pretty much reductive to compare the average return of the retail investor with SP500 or Nasdaq, the latter which suffers a drawdown of over 80% in the early 2000s and took 15 years to recover the 2000 peak. Furthermore you show SP500 or Nasdaq most of the times and rarely other stock exhange indices. There are many indices which performed poorly or not so well over the last 20-25 years particularly if accounted in their own currency (Argentinean pesos is suffering an horrific inflation; last time I was there in 2011 was 6, now is 120 …). Even in Europe, look at the major ones. Only DAX and SMI did decently well since 2000 albeit the 90s were good for all of them.
Your advices tend to fit mostly young investors 25-30 years old possibly with a good stable job and/or folks who would start to invest now or in the next future during this downturn/likely comprehensive bear market. Folks who starts to care about financial markets now, not those who are riding all the tides over the last 25+ years. Too easy my friend. In this case anyone can just dollar-cost averaging for 40 years in the Nasdaq and some other stock indices for comprehensive diversification and will be great by the time of retiring. I understand the typical Youtube audience is mostly around 30 years old on average and probably rotates significantly, but if one likes to be useful to older audience (50y and older), there are many other factors to be taken into account, and not just because there is expectably much more money involved in absolute terms, significantly more risks ahead in time and potentially more negative effects of drawdowns. Just imagine the impact of a 5 years decline followed by 15 years flat markets as you often shows to someone on the verge of retiring … You can argue there are always value investments to be done around the world. True, albeit easy to say and often potentially significantly risky to do it.
I conclude with a well known Wall Street quote: ‘don’t confuse brains with a bull market’.
All the best.
First – good point!
Second – I am not really a macro guy, so I try not to predict, so my message is to always be invested if you have good things to invest in!
Third – Absolutely, but I am trying to keep things simple.
Fourth – what can I say, I feel 25 and young:-) But yes, I would argue that value is value, no matter your age!
agree with your conclusion, but I am not trying to be smart, just to share what works over time, even bad times!
Anyway, thanks for a really great comment, really appreciate it and it is really a great thinking point, plus you put is so nicely!
The evidence seems to show that the best strategies are to stay invested no matter what happens. Buy and hold long term. Obviously, especially if you are planning to buy an annuity at retirement you need to de-risk as you get nearer to retirement. And trying to time the markets is a loosing game also buying individual stocks for most people is also a loosing game. So changing your strategy right now would come under market timing and most likely end badly. Best follow a passive strategy and basically be well diversified across regions, sectors and asset classes, & keep costs low as possible. John Bogle said on many occasions don’t try to find the needle, just buy the haystack. So just buy a cap weighted broad market index fund, and if you require add a bond index fund and if you want maybe a reit index fund, gold fund. The other advice was to keep it simple. John Bogle just appears to have had 2 funds in is core investment strategy. A total US stock market index fund, plus a total US bond index fund & just rebalance once per annum. He didn’t believe in gold or reit funds
Great message Sven. Many thanks for your effort! You reassure us in what value investing means. But even as a value investor i try to avoid the falling knife in a chart. So may be better to miss some percentage points and enter a value stock if also the chart shows you an entry point.
it depends on the price versus the value you are buying
Hi Sven, bang on with your comment that the market is always forward looking and prices in future possibilities. Yes it’s possible everything may not yet be priced in but noone can accurately predict the future. Holding off for the very bottom may not be the wisest thing to do as one may miss good opportunities (looking at the wild swings in both directions off late, that’s quite possible). It’s best to start investing in attractive businesses now and keep allocating more (if possible) if/when prices go even lower.
the market is just pricing in what the market thinks the risk and reward is
Great video Sven as always. I have a question, I have watched the “super investors” for a while and there seem to be two main ways to looks for businesses to invest in: 1) looking for low valuation and after that assessing quality of business 2) looking for high quality businesses and after that determine the price / valuation. There seems to be obvious advantages and disadvantages from both of these ways and I have a hard time deciding which might be superior, or if it is just personal preference. I was wondering what you think of this and how does your process look like, are you looking for low valuation or high quality first?
nothing is superior to the other, at the end it is about the best opportunity you find at that moment in time with your money
Great points on the flaws of trying to time the market. Reminds me of an article I read by Nick Maggiulli. He said “even god couldn’t beat dollar cost averaging”. He compared “buying the dip” to DCA in the S&P500 and DCA won 70% of the time. Just shows the futility of timing the market. Let alone the risk factors you mentioned in your video of having cash not invested in companies.
Well said!
Great video, thank you Sven.
Just like Peter lynch said, if anybody can predict the market/interest rate there would be many billionaires.
:-))))
“That’s the only strategy that works” 😊 accumulate pieces of business when price are below value and sleep well at night, not trying to stress about what will happen tomorrow or when the time is right
🙂
People are just strange creatures, they only want to buy when stocks go up but they avoid buying when they are cheaper.
Shouldn’t you be happier if something you’ve got your eye on goes on sale? Just scale or DCA into a position bit by bit.
Human psychology
Retail is 4% of the market. Those freaking out are algos and institutions.
that is how people work, at least 99% of them
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Absolutely enjoy your videos. You and Patrick Boyle always have videos packed with valuable and informative information.
As I understand it, the difference this time is the high inflation. Nevertheless its a super interesting time to watch finance and economic matters. Sven your videos are great.
Yes, exactly
But after 2009 we had steeply falling interest rates, which have stayed very low for a long time. Plus we had an awful lot of quantitative easing, which again has been going on for many yrs. So is it not any surprise that stock markets, and property prices have been going up since 2009