Is 10% per year easy? History, current market, strategy

Can you accomplish 10% returns annually?

0:00 10% returns
3:21 Historic summary
7:12 Present circumstance
8:24 Strategy
12:18 My plan

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Is 10% per year easy? History, current market, strategy

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  1. Assuming you are retail, the hardest point of entry is building up a reasonable cash position. Afterwards, it is really about risk profile, patience and time. Most retail lack most or all 3.

    1. Couldn’t agree more because it takes forever to build a portfolio where the 4% withdrawal is actually meaningful to your life. Like how you need 2.5mil to reliably make 100k a year

    2. good point… that is why you need to know why you are doing it and how…

  2. Sven, the problem with this thinking is that your money isnt as valuable, even if you get a lot of it, in 40 years. The same way the have a discount factor when you do DCF you should do the same with your personal wealth accumulation. What happens if you die on year 35 of the 40 you are planning to save? Then you get nothing (your family might still if you have one). I see this as a flaw in this whole idea. If i use the 10% per year, then theres no accumulation to talk about either. What do you guys think?

    1. I think this is the wrong focus, you either build wealth or not! If you do, you might do 20% per year, I don’t know… I did… so, it is more about a decision, not a linear progression…

  3. Thanks for this value lesson again 👍 I like all the reports and sources you are implementing in your videos

  4. Hi Sven, the more I think about dividends, the more I see them as protection against inflation. Assuming that the company is stable, (perhaps a commodity producer where their product would increase in price with inflation) the dividend would be paid in “today’s dollars”.
    Am I missing something? (I wouldn’t be surprised if I am!)

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. I knew there was a fly in the ointment, but, (if you’ll forgive me mixing metaphors) I couldn’t see the forest for the trees. Thanks Sven.

    2. If you are holding your cash for the right investment maybe years away, how do you protect it against inflation?

  5. Thought on longevity:
    It is really hard in Europe to be poor by the time you retire. If you’ve had a relatively adequate lifetstyle, nothing fancy, saved consistently, you will be already owning 2 apartments by the time you retire, have a lot in passive investments, etc.
    It is the oldest that are the richest, on average. So by the time you’re 65, you will be very well off.

    Which begs the question, if we start living until 120 years of age in the future, in good health through slowing down our aging process, will we still be rich at 65? I doubt it, because then people would be 60 years retired (65 to 120). They will devalue our money so much that by the age of 65 you are not so well off as you are today, so you kleep working until you are 100.

    1. I think it is better to focus on the first part of your post – just get rich enough so that you don’t have to worry about the second part. In the world we live in, a world of abundance, with the right focus, it is easily possible…

  6. Sven please do a video on the French stock market after Italy. Look at eurofins it’s an interesting stock

  7. Hey Sven, what happened to the video where viewers could send in recommendations for stocks for you to look at? Did you abandon making it, or did I miss it?

    1. I still have to sit down and make it :-(( will do.. no worries, if there is a good reccomendation it will not be old….

  8. Sounds like a combination of dollar cost averaging in etf or index’s with picking some stocks at the right valuation might be a good option.

    1. depends on how good you are on the stock picking – If I had done it over the last 20 years, I would be much poorer.

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. I’m trying to get on that level but also don’t want to lose everything. Once you understand how to find value does it take a lot of time to monitor?

  9. Sven what about having a cash position. What about adjusting that cash position based on market valuation / individual opportunities

    1. you cannot predict the market thus hard to play on valuation – you need to see how what fits you at a certain moment in time – life changes, all changes. plus, over the long-term it is better to stay invested than other…

  10. @Sven how about from private business? If you expect 10% return from investing in public stocks. Can you expect 20-30% return from successful business?

  11. Hello Sven, why not just invest in Small cap value etf’s like AVUV or AVDV, that returns over 10% historically and guarantees good valuations too.

  12. Beware of hindsight bias with the CAPE ratio. It’s not shown to be a good timing signal. Also DCA underperforms most of the time since it can miss out on bull markets. I think it’s best to follow a systematic value strategy, but also diversify across other factors and strategies to benefit from multiple market environments without needing to time them. Timing is often too difficult and the signals are poor.

  13. Nice video tutorial as usual Sven but I wonder if it is wise for people, part of the EU (this house of cards) to hold large cash positions (20%-50%) in Euros, waiting for bargains with 10% and above return? Isn’t it wiser to hold them in another western currency that is not tied unconditionally to the euro such as the Danish krone, the Swiss franc or the US dollar?

    1. you can’t play on currencies… focus on finding the good investments, not the best currency trade.

  14. Hi Sven, isn’t it a little bit unfair to say that stocks account for 2,8% of overall returns only? If we separate both factors inflation wouldn’t do 68000x on its own. This is the power of combined compounding or Charlie’s lollapalooza efect 😉

    1. of course, but it is just to emphasize the inflation on top…. you can make it the opposite too…

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