The FED simply announced that a rate cut might not occur in March as the market expected. It is difficult to forecast rates, but we can see how whatever happening might impact our investments.
0:00 FED News
2:55 Impact on Stocks
5:19 Investing & Rates
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Thank you for the vid Dr Carlin. Wishing you the best in this new year.
thanks, you too!
Can you please review the (WSHR) ETF, I think it’s reasonably valued compared to the S&P500 and it’s more globally diversified.
thanks for suggesting!
The interest rates on long term bonds went even down yesterday and today. Seems markets expect low rates in the longterm, but interestingly also stocks went down. A bit strange
didn’t rates go up a bit?
@@Value-Investing the 10-year yield is in a constant downtrend for one week. Then some volatity around the speach of Powell and it continued the downtrend and today it is falling like a rock. A bit strange.
I agree with you Sven! I’d like to emphasize, as mentioned earlier, that Western states are heavily indebted. Therefore, caution is needed in raising interest rates, as it could lead to overwhelming debt burdens. This aspect must be considered. They cannot rise rates too much, and they know it.
yes, but they also can’t control inflation, so we will see…
0:10 love the Thumbnail…to be fair. Nothing unexpected what Powell said
:-))))
The hell with markets 😂😂😂
:-)))
1:45 See the impact on several banks. We’ll have round the corner a bunch of banks that will be to be saved.
thanks for sharing
The difference between the 60s and now is the incredible amount of debt. We have a spending problem. That’s on Congress and the President, not the Fed. In theory they should only be concerned about inflation and unemployment. That is their mandate. Bailing out bad fiscal policy is not.
yep!
I disagree that the S&P 500 would crash massively with high interest rates, especially with the incredible market cap of magnificent 7 and a few other companies. These companies are sitting on massive piles of cash, and would centralize further and go up. It seems like all bad news isn’t so bad for massive centralized companies, at least until we have a major recession.
The real hurt is going to be small caps, who went up a lot in December santa claus rally, but will crash a TON with high interest rates since most have a lot of debt.
anything could happen, I just point out the risks.
@@Value-Investing yea agreed it’s very risky, i just think value investors need to price in debt since many ‘value’ companies have huge amount of debt.
Maybe a video about historical money printing from other countries, where money printing caused many problems
thanks for suggesting – here is something https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EEEu6UUp2k
Would be interesting to know what the net income margins were during those 12-20 PE periods
taxes were higher, and margins were lower, but net income comes after anything – PE was lower and rates were higher!
Powell is trying to “buy” lower business exuberance and so – lower inflation with these words. He prays that the economy doesn’t put him into the corner of rising inflation and rising pressure from Washington to reduce the treasury yields. I’m not sure he has much more than words and prayers in his quiver now. And I do think we will find out.
98% of the FED is just words :-))
The market will drop when the rates are lowered. Its always looking forward.
depends on what is it looking forward… if rates drop because of big recession, then yes
You r the best at putting things in perspective
Thanks
I appreciate that!
Sven what do you think about china stocks these days? given that they are trading at 10-15 pe compared to 30-50 in the US. How to you evaluate a company given that it is in communist country ?
Time will tell what communist mean and where, but yes, those are cheap!
I’m lazy so videos like yours are really important to keep a level head.Chuck from fast graphs said you really don’t want to buy over a 15 pe 😉
🙂
Best Channel on YouTube
thanks!
Sven,
Could you cover ACLS please?
thanks for suggesting!
My debt is at 6.6% interest rate, I’m paying that off vs treasuries or buying stocks. 6.6% at 100% guaranteed is pretty sweet!! (As long as real inflation is below 6.6%)
I don’t know, I have a feeling that all that is above 5% when it comes to debt, 100% guaranteed return, it is a smart idea!
January and February YoY inflation numbers will be shockingly low due to last year’s high numbers. That will put a massive pressure to Fed to start reducing rates. Government also puts a massive pressure to them as well, they don’t want to borrow with such high rates any more. It is an election year, and nobody wants a recession or an economic crisis. Powell is being stupid that by saying they need more data. They have all the data in front of them. The only risk here is if they act stupidly like they did before, waiting for too long, then panic and lower rates too fast. I hope they learnt their lesson from two years ago.