Intel! The growth is gone, looks more like fraud :-(

hasn't done fantastic and now it is doing even worse. The key question is whether the CEO will turn the ship around or not. Just time will tell, they altered the accounting which I think is fraudulent towards investors.

0:00
2:15 Earnings
4:00 Outlook
5:05 Dividend
5:35 Investing
8:08 Assessment
9:44 Accounting Fraud

Previous Intel Analysis Video (Wait to 2025).
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Intel! The growth is gone, looks more like fraud 🙁

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50 Comments

  1. Intel Is one of those stocks that always tempts me, but then ends up disappointing. Really nice video, thanks again Sven 🙂

    1. for now it looks like that, but then there is the everlasting hope that it turns around, but then again maybe better to look elsewhere….

    2. It’s a trap! But I sniffed it out. Too many analysts who know nothing about microchips just blah blah blah nonsense.

  2. I sold after listening to the first earnings call with Pat. Sounded like a used car salesman, really rubbed me the wrong way. Shows the benefit of listening to earnings calls and not just reading the transcripts!

  3. Intel plays politics too much. It is interested in politics more than making better chips. It will end in disaster.

  4. Thanks for this video. Really interesting business case. It feels like some years ahead it will be a book talking about Intel. How it went well? or how it went bad? History will tells.

  5. Intel is fine. Those with deeper technical understanding of semiconductors and fabrication nodes say the same. I use their products both on retail and servers and they are competitive and often better than AMD depending on workload, it’s not like a one-horse race everyone touts it as AMD and Intel have traded tech leadership before, no-one seems to remember this. I think you have a cyclic downturn, their margins on their current nodes are lower because they are expensive to produce, and they have massive capex. The capex will peak and then drop off substantially, the newer nodes will increase margins even if they don’t gain market share. I have bought in a bit early but really don’t think selling is smart because a company has a bit of short-term pain. Roadmaps are always optimistic (Tesla anyone?), but yes, it’s a wait and see, will buy more when I see them execute well, hopefully pulling down my avg price. Go Intel, love your products!

    1. I agree. I’m not selling either. But also, the video is a lot about numbers and not about the products. The story with Intel for me was that they will start making good CPU’s again that can compete in 2024 earliest. Because right now, their CPU’s are just inferior to AMD’s and Apple’s.. Yes, they have great power if you use an extraordinary amount of electricity but that’s about it. They should be getting better margins by moving away from monolithic and use chiplits instead, or tiles whatever they call them. But i think more importantly they need better products (and obviously an upturn in the PC TAM). But right now i am looking to buy a new laptop, and the 12 Gen Intel doesn’t match the 6000 series AMD has for me and if i watch a Youtube video or ask friends, they all massively say AMD now is the better chip. Will Intel be able to catch up producing better CPU’s again? That’s the only question i have tbh. And like you say, it’s not like a one horse race. One CPU doesnt serve all needs.

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Yes, because they behind on tech. Again, not by as much as everyone says. So while Gelsinger see’s out the products started before his tenure, you will see the ones he’s started come through over next 2 years. Yes, Raptor Lake and Sapphire Rapids, just released, started before his time, he’s the CEO managed to get them out the door the previous fumbled 10nm for years. Watch this space, I’m ready buy aggressively later this year.

    3. @Max007 I have a12700h and would pick it again over 6800H. An extra hour battery life not really issue for me, love the power of the chip for work. Most gaming laptop reviews pick Intel versions when manufacturers give 2 options of same product line. Portability with better battery life, AMD yes. You’re not gonna go wrong with either, but the difference is not some massive margin!

  6. Really wish I had deployed my capital elsewhere. But I didn’t really know what I was doing at my initial purchase and I just averaged down.
    Two lessons here: 1. Wait for the cycle to really drop. 2. Don’t just sink in more cash just to lower your average when you made a bad purchase.

    1. I think the crucial part here is knowing their product. I was invested, but after talking to a friend who knows a thing or 2 about datacenters. She basically said nobody was buying intel anymore, because the AMD product was so much better.
      I put shrinking market + not best product together and said: this will end way down (margin and/or volume wise). So luckily sold in 2022 (albeit at a loss). It was a good valuation all else being equal, but it was a downward story.

    2. @Bert Moons This is why Buffett says to invest in what you know. Everything that has happened was obvious and predictable for a long time to those familiar with the industry dynamics. And those that knew were able to keep long AMD and short INTC.

  7. 2 months ago you were advocating to go big on Intel, after supposedly deep analysis and claiming that it is next 2x stock. Today you advocate after another supposedly deep analysis to sell it because Intel is gone. It looks like jumping up and down claiming that you are walking. This is hilarious.

    1. ᵂ ᴴ ᴬ ᵀ ˢ ᴬ ᴾ ᴾ㈩𝟒𝟒𝟕𝟖𝟗𝟓𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟎𝟐𝟓 says:

      ☝️☝️☝️ᴛʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ…
      Sᴇɴᴅ ᴀ ᴅɪʀᴇᴄᴛ ᴍsɢ ᴏɴ ᴡʜᴀᴛsᴀᴘᴘ,
      ʟᴇᴛ’s ᴛᴀʟᴋ ʀɪɢʜᴛ ᴀᴡᴀʏ!!….

    2. ok, first, I know you hate me from your comments history! Secondly, I said intel is a buy, but wait till 2025 – so first listen, then comment, but most importantly cut the hate, it doesn’t do well for your health 🙂

    3. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Sven – instead of telling everyone that they hate you just stop misguiding your audience. Don’t you feel bad knowing that someone out there just lost lots of money on your advise. It is not going to 2x from the level you recommend buying in 2025 and you know it.

    1. ᵂ ᴴ ᴬ ᵀ ˢ ᴬ ᴾ ᴾ㈩𝟒𝟒𝟕𝟖𝟗𝟓𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟎𝟐𝟓 says:

      ☝️☝️☝️ᴛʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ…
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      ʟᴇᴛ’s ᴛᴀʟᴋ ʀɪɢʜᴛ ᴀᴡᴀʏ!!….

  8. I work in semiconductor business and can tell you that all machines/tools don’t loose the value with every year, but gain. There is a huge demand every year for new/used or refurbished tools in semis. As an example company bought 10years ago a used 10years old Endura for a £1m now it’s worth nearly ~£3m as it is.

    1. ᵂ ᴴ ᴬ ᵀ ˢ ᴬ ᴾ ᴾ㈩𝟒𝟒𝟕𝟖𝟗𝟓𝟏𝟎𝟖𝟎𝟐𝟓 says:

      ☝️☝️☝️ᴛʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴡᴀᴛᴄʜɪɴɢ…
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      ʟᴇᴛ’s ᴛᴀʟᴋ ʀɪɢʜᴛ ᴀᴡᴀʏ!!….

    2. interesting, thanks for sharing, but if those machines don’t lose value, then Intel would be making a lot of money now, they spent $100 billion on machines last few years

  9. One thing is for management to have enough integrity to say that they didnt meet profit expectations, another thing is to manipulate accounting. Charlie Munger has some simple rules in investing where one of the four rules is to have management with integrity and talent. Inverting a problem by avoiding stupidity is a powerful mental model. Thanks alot for great in depth review of intel!

  10. Thanks Sven. Great video
    My thoughts- looking at the comments, many people are perhaps missing the point. This is an educational portfolio. It’s about learning. Whether Intel goes up or down is irrelevant. This was a great learning experience and not a waste of time.
    There are 3 lessons here:
    1) It’s ok to bring in a CEO for growth, as long as everything is growing
    2) You’ve got to follow a stock to learn about it, what makes it tick.
    3) Accountants are like very, very dull magicians. They make you look in one direction whilst the slight of hand is happening elsewhere.
    Intel js a great company to own..just not at the moment for most people

    1. Well said tbh, i own intel tho, but sure if ill buy more or not, i’m down 40% (on a small position tho, like 2% of portfolio)

  11. Sure and good, but Washington is going all in on revitalizing US chip production, and unless they want to make AMD a monopoly, how will Intel not benefit?

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