Intel stock has been a worth financial investment for the in 2015 or 2. Nevertheless, the company has changed from dividends and buybacks to growth at all expenses. Provided the slowdown in the semiconductor boom, the improvements expected to reveal only in 2025, the huge capex spend, the market doesn't like and Intel stock is down big.
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I feel like this is the perfect storm for intel, downtrend on the chip cycle while they are building so when the tailwinds for the chips will come(if they will) they will be ready for mass production and reap the benefits. IMO it building while the cycle is down is better than building while the cycle is up(and you are left with low-production fabs and a down cycle when they are ready for production). Sven, what do you think?
Exactly. For the big boys they should make countercyclical moves.
Oh they will come. Theres no way chip production continues to slow for years while everyone just lets compute fall behind and keeps old outdated equipment.
If you don’t know how to design chips or build a fab, you shouldn’t invest in intel. Wait till they turn the company around first.
I remember reading a chapter on “When to buy a stock” in Philip Fisher’s book Common Stocks and uncommon profits where he states that the only moment you can almost time the market is when a plant opens and the expected increase in output & sales is high but company fails to deliver (because of unforseen setebacks) and the market sells off. Eventually the company deliveres but the price is way down. I am very curious if it will be similar to Intel after they open the chip plant in Ohio. If it is I’ll be buying.
When doing that you also have to be aware if the company and its finances are going to take full advantage of that. Then you need to ensure that your buying prices is good value.
@bighand69 Well put. Forgot to mention that the value approach for the underlying fundamentals comes first. Also macroeconomic conditions like the demand for chips when the plant will open and other competitors must be taken into account. More metrics could be added but at one point too much is harming the process.
@I’m Steven I have no idea if that will happen. If you believe that Intel will have succes (in this case) better be prepared with cash when the time comes.
I wonder how stubborn usa gov is with Intel. Because in the past usa gov have dumped tons of cash into expensive military projects that developed very slow. IE rail gun. Perhaps after the first 54billion chips act, usa will provide smaller funding every 4-5 years to continue support
I will go with the established ones but add AMZ600X to the list because the biggest tech company is endorsing it
The best hours are yet to come now that AMZ600X is in the realm. I wouldn’t be the one who regrets decisions for the rest of my life by not being part of the movement
???
Fair opinion on AMZ600X now that a big brand is entering the scene I believe we can have big shifts at all markets not only the AMZ market
The stock market was in a bubble. It has to come down. The housing market was in a bubble. It has to come down. We printed $6T, that money HAS to be pulled from the market to stop inflation. Maybe not all of it but I would say more than half. You do this by increasing interest rates and quantitative tightening. Inflation is the single worst thing for the economy. It is worse that a stock market crash, it is worse than a recession, it is worse than a housing market crash. It is an economy killer. It has to be stopped before we sort out the rest. Powell’s problem is he is late to the party and is still moving too slowly.
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Good to know is that Intel ordered the new coming flagship of ASML in advantage over TSMC. Delivery date is unknown yet but it will improve Intel’s position.
Can you please explain how this will provide an advantage? I’ve also heard this news but don’t know exactly what capabilities it will give Intel over others or for how long.
Biggest issue is margin compression. Their historical margins were due to it being a monopoly.
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Unfortunately the outcome of Intel research & development is abysmal and has been so for at least 5 years. I do own a few Intel stocks but am hesitant to buy more because Intel seems to need at least twice the money to achieve comparable or lower results than the competition.
And with Mobile Iron they seem to wait for the stock market to completely go belly up to time their IPO.
Being late seem to be one of Intel’s core competencies. Thank you for the update anyway, much appreciated.
Very good. The video gave no outright conclusions, very open ended, very uncertain.
There is definitely a big Geo risk with Taiwan and China.
AMD, NVidia have already done big run ups.
Intel seems an interesting very good dividend and value.
Non-traders, we should all be buying for a 5-10 time horizon.
I love programming and think semiconductors, including Intel’s, are some of the most amazing achievements of mankind – every day my mind is boggled again to find out how much work my tiny machine can do in the realm of nanoseconds, how they are everywhere and powering everything. But that is a VERY unpopular opinion: the consensus seems to be that Intel’s products are a joke, garbage, slow, outdated, embarassing. It’s valued almost as if it were a trash company about to go bust. Warren Buffet has a thought experiment where you’re only allowed to buy 10 stocks in your lifetime, so you had better think carefully about buying. I would use up 1 of my 10 choices on Intel
INTC is today where IBM was in 2011, a pivotal moment. It’s very hard to turn around such a big ship. If they just do the talk BUT not walk the walk they will become irrelevant. Few people today know that IBM used to be the leader in almost all corporate IT, and nothing big could be done without them.
Thank you Dr. Sven, clear analysis as always! I wonder if your thoughts on Micron have changed. I know many super investors own it. It is really cyclical and uncertain with todays macro environment but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a value bargain
Interesting viewpoint on Intel Sven
At the $20B ground breaking ceremony in Ohio, Pat Gelsinger actually mentioned of ‘possible delays” in commissioning this plant. Intel’s investment in Ohio comes on the heels of the company’s announcement to build two new fabs in Arizona, and its expansion in New Mexico to add advanced packaging capabilities.
So I would use a dimple rule from the Dhando Investor – AVOID Greenfields! Intel could have a lot of greenfield related delays (aka downside) from construction activities in a country not exactly known for its construction execution skills. Intel is a PASS for me until most of the greenfield becomes a brownfield or is fully commissioned !!!
By then its wont be buy since growth is slow and stock would have recovered. Buy inflation bonds if u r this much risk aversed
intel has lost a lot of credibility because of its complacency and poor management while it was the market leader. Now AMD is driving the innovation, and Apple is switching to its own chips. Intel somehow managed to loose its edge on the competition, and it might take a while, if ever, to revert this situation.
I almost bought some in my IRA, but I think its got further to fall. Multiple billion dollar factories being built, AMD is eating into their workstation chip revenue, their huge flop of a GPU in recent memory, the CEO has said that their next quarterly is going to be a mess. The impending recession that is most certainly coming / layoffs / etc are going to take a HUGE bite out of this over-inflated money printing everything bubble. The FED is upping the interest again this week. The geopolitical risks are sketchy too. All eyes are on Ukraine. Putin’s war council is threatening Nukes / Biological Weapons. China is buying all of Russia’s energy that Europe is Snubbing, and China is building billions of dollars worth of Navy all around Taiwan. Whew.
What people do not understand is that the semiconductor industry and specially the manufacture of chips, is not only about the high end ones. The 5nm and 7nm chips produced by TSMC and designed by Nvidia, AMD and these guys are the most sought after, expensive and with highest margins, but there is a world behind them, and there is where Intel leads. You have 14nm, 20nm, 12nm… and they all are also needed for cars, coffee machines, Tv´s, smart homes, laptops etc…and this is what people don’t get. Intel is GIANT in this not so sophisticated market because their chips are needed at all costs. In 2021 Intel had $19B of Net Income, $30B of Operating Cash flow and $9,6B of Free Cash Flow. Do you guys understand how crazy is that? This Is a MONSTER of a company. Yeah it lost the train for the new generation, but until it gets there, which it will eventually, Intel still dominates the “Non sophisticated” semiconductor market, that market providing Intel with mind blowing cash flows. Its only my opinion and readers must know I am personally invested in Intel. I will do also a video for my channel about Intel eventually!
They should try to expand into cloud tho so they can be a service company too… im in with 30 avg