Intel Stock Analysis – Value Perspective on $1 Trillion Semiconductor TAM by 2030

is investing huge on dominating the AI semiconductor transformation going forward. Here is a value investing viewpoint discussing and the risk and benefit of the investment and of what is doing.

4:15 Semiconductor TAM

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Analysis – Value Perspective on $1 Trillion Semiconductor TAM by 2030

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About the Author: Richard Money


  1. I bought a small amount of Intel at $26 last year. I am going to hold and see. Now, I will tell you the main problem I have with AMD, Nvidia and somewhat Apple. They are completely dependent on one company to produce their chips. I have nothing against TSMC but the saying don’t put all your eggs into one basket is going off like an alarm clock in my head. If TSMC was to say we are going to leverage their dominance and double, triple, or quadruple their pricing what will that do to these companies? And why not? What is the alternative? Food for thought. Would you like it scrambled or over easy.

    1. I bought around that time, but I got out after they grew a little. I bought before they cut the dividend. The CEO a month prior had said they would not cut dividend. He lied. INTC has lost all trust. SEC should investigate and charge CEO.

    2. I believe he said that they have a healthy dividend. That is misleading though. How do you feel about the other companies completely dependent on TSMC though?@@evarlast

  2. intel hasn’t been the only one to expand capacity either. There chip market might become a whole lot more competitive.

    1. the massive expansion of chinese chipmakers and huge subsidies by CCP for this is rarely talked about as well. Just look at massive orders for chip making equipment from ASML with chinese companies buying up all the equipment they can before sanctions really hit.

  3. Intel has got some benefits from states to build chip plants, because they are a strategic good. This is a plus for a very big company, it is solid, but their presentations and capitalization are overvalued.

  4. Thanks for sharing about the stock based compensation. I do want to point out that the stock based compensation is reflected in net income and is added back on the cash flow statement to get to operating cash flow (has been the case since 2004). If this wasn’t the case, then why do many tech companies provide adjusted EPS or EBITDA numbers that add back for stock based compensation? For Intel, although stock based compensation is higher than the past, the operating expenses are down too, but I don’t know if that is because the company is choosing to provide more stock based compensation instead of higher salaries. It could be the company is trying to realign incentives to long-term performance, something I would expect them to do to improve competitiveness. I think that if you are doing a free cash flow analysis, then I would subtract stock based compensation as it is an expense even if it has no cash impact in the short-run. The stock based compensation will eventually impact cash as employees exercise their options.

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  6. Thanks for the analysis of Intel – I was considering looking at intel as a potential investment, as the other semi’s (AMD and Nvidia) are reporting that demand is above supply, which would mean a short term opportunity to invest in Intel. However, I don’t like companies that are twisting their figures to look better, and reward themselves big dividends while in fact running losses. Based on your analysis I am reconsidering and ultimately rejecting the original idea of investing into Intel for the time being.

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