Nutrien and Mosaic stocks are stocks to buy from a varied portfolio perspective. We are now in a fertilizer cycle recession where we don't know the bottom yet, however from a FCF point of view, these required organizations are currently at 10% FCF yields from mid-cycle fertilizer prices. Delight in the vid as there is a strategy around purchasing cyclicals which is really essential.
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0:00 Stocks.
1:50 Fertilizer Cycle.
3:37 Mosaic.
4:44 Nutrien.
7:20 Portfolio Fit.
8:53 Relative.
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For cyclical stocks, pe is irrelevant. Basically, you want to buy them at depressed operating margins and sell them at high operating margins. provided they can survive a down cycle – not burdened by big debt and free cash flow generative.
Great to see the quadrant back! It helps to put things in perspective.
That big Potash price boom was due to Russia and Belarus exports not making it through to markets for a short time.
Thanks for the video. Good the new edition/transition. Like the new summary table/short quadrant
When Sven drops a commodity stock video, I click. I have been buying Ntr for months now, all the way down from $80 CAD.
Thank you for sharing your research 🙂
Love this pick! Mosaic and Nutrient are undervalued gems. Fertilizer demand will only increase with global food needs.
Totally agree, Mosaic’s diversified fertilizer portfolio and Nutrient’s strategic expansions position them for long-term growth.
I can attest to increasing fertilizer demand. Global food security concerns will drive prices up, benefiting Mosaic and Nutrient
Have you considered the impact of sustainable agriculture trends on traditional fertilizer demand? Mosaic and Nutrient need to adapt.
While sustainable agriculture trends may impact traditional fertilizer demand, Mosaic and Nutrient are already investing in eco-friendly solutions, such as precision agriculture and organic fertilizers, to mitigate risks and capitalize on the growing demand for environmentally responsible practices.
Has anyone considered Corteva Agriscience as complementary investment Their focus on sustainable agriculture solutions could synergize with Mosaic and Nutrient.
Whoaaaaa asked this yesterday of you!’n you probably already made the video but that’s super cool
Thank you so much Sven for making this 🙏🙏🙏
My pleasure!
Just a few thoughts:
nestle growth : is it in CHF or USD?
Because a 2% average growth in EPS over the long term in CHF is probably at least as good as a 3% growth in USD.
The USD depreciates against the CHF over the long term.
I can t speak for the other stocks ( and I don t say that Nestle is especially a Buy at these price level), but we might see Nestle as an Equity Bond ( as Buffett often refers) : we are « very » confident of stable or slightly increasing EPS of Nestle. It can then be compared as a Swiss Bond.
Therefore, the dividend yield or the FCF yield should be compared with long term yield of swiss bonds.
Thus a possible understanding of a 18-20x PE ratio.
Of course that says nothing about if Nestle is a good risk/reward with respect to other alternatives.
excellent point! But what matters to me is the absolute return to me, don’t care much to what it is compared to:-) Plus, there are things in switzerland trading at better levels with less risk, actually no USD risk compared to CHF. At the end this is an USD EUR business, not CHF…
Dr. Carlin; you are original & your channel is definitely unique.
I appreciate your insights.
Thank-you!
I appreciate that!
My sister works for Nutrien 🙂 I bought last time you did and sold since then.
Interesting idea! As a norwegian i follow the competitor Yara, but stayed away as there is still alot of extra capacity coming to the market until 2026, so feels a bit early in the capital cycle, but I might be wrong
I added Nutrien to my portfolio on September 10th! I allocated 4.5% of the account it’s in. Great to see you agree with my thesis because I value your opinion!
Fantastic!
thanks Sven great timing on NTR & MOS here from risk reward perspective. I am holding ADM as well looking for this to move as I am up 8% thus far
Thanks Sven! I think is good as inflation hedge, love the idea, but analyzing fundamentals, I think FMC ist a better option. Why do you prefer MSC and NTR?
If you expect 10% return from Nestle , it will be always overpriced.
Hi Sven, something you may not know about these phosphate producing companies is that the same phosphate deposits they are already mining also contain extremely high concentrations of rare earth elements. I am a geologist and while extraction of REEs from phosphate deposits is not currently being practiced, it is something that many scientists are currently researching, and some industry figures are taking a closer look at. There is a very real possibility that within the next 10 years, many phosphate deposits are also producing REEs.
That’s a very good idea Sven, thank you!
i like more CF and CTVA (profit margins, ROE, brands, products diversification), but their valuations are higher..
i’d buy these kind of cyclical business only in a downturn economy (recession) when prices and valuations would be much lower!
until then, Energy sector speaks to me better! (at least, until 2030) 😉