The essence of investing is to find a fantastic organization at a reasonable rate. Here is a discussion as talking about it will increase the chances we can have of discovering one.
0:00 Great Company At Great Rate
1:04 Coca Soda
3:19 What Is That
6:34 How To Discover
Great Businesses at Pricy Rates –
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how do you calculate the brand value?
Hello Sven, thanks a lot for the useful videos and great insights. Is it possible for you to analyze the stock of “Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB (publ) (SBB-B.ST)” ?
It is in the real estate sector with good dividend yield.
too pricy for me in most cases those are!
Hi Sven! I’m curious what’s your assumption/reasoning in using earnings yield as an estimate for expected return?
long-term returns are perfectly correlated to business performance – Warren Buffett
Could the fact Buffett is buying Apple at 140 be understood as him recognizing that in this new era companies with unparalleled Moat are never again going back to under 20 PE given all the printed money in the system, many more investors competing for the same shares with the introduction of easy internet trading and so on. It’s interesting to look at KO PE slowly expanding over the past decades despite slowing growth.
Or the fact that he has $100 billion in cash losing 10% of purchasing power if held in Treasuries!
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. True, but that doesn’t explain why Apple and not for example Bank of America, HPQ or whatever.
lets not forget that 10 year treasury rates were 8.5% then. So it was like buying something today for 10-15%
🙂
Easier said than done indeed. Thank you for the video!
🙂
Hey Sven, the Fed Funds Rate was also anywhere from 7%-9% ballpark in those days (was looking at it for 1988-89) So adjusted for that what would be an apples-to-apples comparison for the current times? I know for India we’re using 5-6% right now so 16x- 20x PE would be what I’m using.
you don’t care where the fed is, you care about the business!
I really appreciate how you preach extensive research and patience being the keys to finding the business that is right for you. The biggest problem I have is having the discipline to stay patient as I am researching stock after stock after stock. In becoming so familiar with hundreds of businesses it’s easy to buy ones that I feel pretty good about but don’t have the highest confidence in instead of being patient and waiting for the right one at the right price.
thanks!
Fb has pe 12.6, so it has 8% earnings yield + 7% long term growth rate = 15% vs 3% on 10y treasury seems like a decent business at the fair price.
if they grow 7% per year ahead!
Sven, great video as usual! You did some videos on European stocks, I was wondering about what you think about Uk stocks at the moment. Everyone seems to think that LSE is a desert of boring, zombie dividend companies. Are there diamonds in the sand?
I don’t think about stocks in general, just about single businesses!
Wow I always had the idea that Buffett had bought Coca-Cola at very cheap valuations. Thank you for this curious fact Sven.
🙂
Many thanks for your videos Sven.
I wonder what you think about possible mechanical value investing strategies, like Dogs of the Dow or Acquirer’s Multiple, or the many screening strategies you can get on websites like Stockopedia, GuruFocus, etc.
Would you suggest any website in particular (i.e., MorningStar, TipRanks, Simply Wall St) for the estimation of a fair value of a stock?
Finally, in the last few years there has been a growth in interest in 13F cloning because of Mohnish Pabrai, what is your opinion on this approach?
Thanks again,
I don’t do that 🙁
Hi sven, it would be interesting an analysis on how to invest in small caps in the current environment (what to look for, waiting for better ecomonic news, etc), you know companies with no moat, no pricing power, etc, i have been screnning for value in small caps and have some ideas but i don’t know how to asses the risk of inflation and interest rates in this sector
depends on the business, not the sector
Sven, would it be possible for you to do earnings specials on some of the large caps, or perhaps on the sectors? I would be really interested to see some of your view points!
will do!
Hey Sven, speaking of great businesses at fair prices, DIS hit my number today finally. I took an initial position, and will add more if it falls further. We’re getting close to $20 below your fair value estimate in your Disney video last month. The last 2 times we hit this number were deep in the COVID crash and 2016.
I feel like I’m buying Disney and getting Disney+ free here. I realize D+ has eaten into their revenues, but as we’re seeing with all of these companies, building out streaming services infrastructure is expensive. I’m happy with my purchase today and would be even happier if it drops again and I have the opportunity to add from here.
I’m sorry but I do not believe DIsney is worth less today then 2016.
Now if Amazon, Apple or D+ (my bet) get the NFL deal, I win as I own all 3 very long term.
thanks for sharing!
Fantastic video! Information packed and to the point!
thanks!
I am learning so much from Sven’s philosophy and discipline as described here. Just a few buys at the right time and price can give you outsized gains in your portfolio. I didn’t know what I was doing 10 years ago, but I had the good fortune to buy some good businesses and hold onto them, while selling some of the losers. What was once a diversified portfolio is now a concentrated portfolio because of the outsized performance of the winners. Now I have a better idea of what I don’t know. Let’s hope we uncover some great businesses at a fair price to take us through the next 10 years! My watch list keeps growing while I wait for the right prices. So much to learn! Thanks Sven!
thanks!
Sven, it is alot harder to see it before it happens though. I think I’m going to index investing. I feel i’m spending alot of time studying just to lose money.
but you only need to see it once in a decade!
Thankyou again Sven, for taking vague concepts explaining them with concrete examples.
I just have to wonder, how would one go about calculating the value ($80bn) of Coke’s brand/moat? I mean, I can see a moat in financials, but actually putting a figure on it… Well, there’s Buffett and there’s everyone else I suppose.
you look at what has to be spent to replicate cash flows!
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. Okay, thanks. It seems obvious now.
One of the wisest value investors of all time, with 50 years of experience, decided to put 60% of his stock market portfolio into Coke (but public stocks were a fraction – less than 50%? much less? of Berkshire total assets).
50%+ of one’s portfolio in a single stock would be wildly arrogant (and risky) for anyone watching YouTube investment videos (obviously, including me).