I believe gold can easily reach $5000 by 2030 on the current currency basics. If we look at the government financial obligation, non-existent GDP growth, requirement for low rates and more cash printing when the next shock gets here, gold can only go up.
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Hello Dr Carlin.
Would like your take on gold miners indeed.
Thanks !
Sven, please analyse Pan American Silver Corp : PAAS. Thx 🙂
🙂
Thank you Sven. I think Microsoft at today’s price is GOLD
hahha
Yes, next video for gold miners please.
Yes – please discuss gold miner stocks / ETF!
I very much appreciate his expertise in cyclicals generally and mining companies specifically. Or am I wrong to imply gold is cyclical?
Would also be nice to see a video on ADM’s latest trouble. Insight into ADM, or even merely insight into when an investor can have confidence that they do or don’t have a way of truly discerning innocent or minor accounting issues vs. major issues and a potentially untrustworthy company
🙂
Please Gold Miners analysis!!!
As always great to hear your thoughts. Thank you very much.
My pleasure!
Barrick seems crazy undervalued
Barrick is cheap but there’s much cheaper
@@leopolddebilloez7434 Really? Which? I own some Newmont and looking at Barric. Both have dipped recently. I want the dividends.
🙂
Good video Sven. The distinction I would make is that this gold cycle has been driven by central banks and central banks buy gold and not miners. But, there is plenty of time for sentiment from the retail investor to enter the formula. Also, you showed Barrick’s chart, a company that has most of their mines in Africa. If you show Agnico’s, Lundin’s, Kinross’ or WPM’s the take will be different. Geopolitics and sentiment also affect the opinion on what a safe jurisdiction is. Cheers!
But gold comes from the gold miners, so what is your point? And which central banks are buying the most gold? I’m glad I have a few miners. I don’t want to pick an ETF or deal with physical gold.
@@TheBooban The gold price is ONLY a function of investment demand (see stock/flow ratio of about 66). ☝
The miners cannot influence the gold price.
.
thanks for sharing!
@@jonnes__4657 I don’t think anyone said miners influence price. But since you brought it up, how is price only influenced by demand? And not supply?
Good day fellow investors. Great video! I am a huge fan of your work but people should consider additional nuances that could be VERY advantageous for fellow investors.
The are dividend paying Gold miners, that fits your profile or concept of ‘Gold with a yield’
Secondly investing in gold is has some overlap with stocks because some stocks can be gold stocks, but also consider Royalty companies that pay you dividend and thus we can say they are“precious metals with a yield”.
I could go on and on but with leave it at 3, that being considered investing in actual gold coins that are legal tender in your country and the chances are if this gold coin is legal tender you do not pay Capital Gains tax on the sale or disposition of the coin.
thanks for sharing!
Good video. I dont think you should however consider gold and good businesses as an interchangeable. Gold is more a hedge like you said or alternative for cash or fixed income.
businesses are also a hedge in a way
More interested in physical gold currently, being from the UK, it’s about the only thing not taxed if it goes up in value (or even stays the same, just rising with inflation)
Best gold is raw gold in the form of a ring. Gets past every airport in the world. Trading gold in the same country is not the purpose of gold.
thanks for sharing!
How about silver?
hm… a lot of manipulation and not as shiny as gold
@@Value-Investing In fact it’s even more shiny 😉 Most reflective metal on earth
I personally prefer to look for value stocks with also exposure to gold like Sandstorm Royalties. A better bussines than miners, with much lower P/Nav and EV/fcf than peers and beter growth prospects from new developments too. This way you get a good margin of safety and also gold exposure for the long term
thanks for sharing!
Would love a video about gold miners. Great video comparing the R/R. I find your videos very informational, thank you!
Noted!
In my homecountry I pay 27.5% kapital gains taxes on stocks and zero taxes on gold if held for at least 1 year, so my return after taxes this year is twice as high with gold compared to stocks. I am already invested for years in both though. People just chase returns right now.
I dont expect gold to have higher expected returns than stocks but gold is better than its reputation.
thanks for sharing!
Homecountry sounds like Austria!
Wow Sven. I was just searching this. I think these gold prices are insane, as though they think the us dollar is going to collapse tomorrow. I’m buying GLL
thanks for sharing!
Thanks for the video !
Miners video would be very welcome, yes
thnanks for suggesting!
Would be great with a new video on gold miners and royalty companies, especially after the Q3 results have come in and we can see who has made money with an average Q3 gold futures price of almost $2600.
Interesting metrics to assess the fair value of gold. Personally, I use global nominal GDP (in PPP-dollars). The fair value according to that metric is about $2,000.- per troy ounce.
Over the past years I’ve done some calculations around gold and gold in a portfolio. The most interesting aspect of gold I find is that it can significantly reduce the maximum drawdown of a portfolio, thereby increasing the safe withdrawal rate. Another interesting find was that adding gold to a portfolio puts a small drag on the performance of a portfolio when inflation is between 1.25% and 7.5%. Outside of those bounds adding gold to a portfolio increases performance. At about a 15% allocation to gold a portfolio of otherwise stocks and bonds has no correlation to inflation whatsoever.
thank you Sven! i have learned so much about the market and macro economics from you!
I have GDX since 2020 and I am just on my money in spite of the fact that GLD (price of gold) is so much up. Did the miners stop functioning as a leveraged bet on gold?