Europe might be taking a look at a decade long economic crisis if there are just a few external shocks. Debt levels are unreasonable and it is really a concerns these days. Here is a summary of the situation however also how to deal with it. Anyway, enjoy your summertime vacations!
0:00 Europe
2:28 Europe Macro
7:53 Italy Financial Obligation Example
10:39 The Response
14:01 Outlooks
16:14 Purchasing Europe
18:53 Going Short
19:20 My Actions
EURO Stocks Analysis
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Hi Sven is there any S&P 500 equivalents for Europe, Asia (east & south east)(except china), India, Brazil?
Sven, so older ppl will keep getting richer, sitting on assets, getting fat salaries and pensions thanks to the ecb, live with a good standard, while younger ppl struggle to save enough to buy a home and then be able to step in the investment ladder cos they can’t keep up with inflation and raising home prices. On to of that they pay a good portion of their tax for pensions. With aging population and lower productivity this will not end well. In China young ppl protest by using the lying flat culture, they lost motivation to compete in the rat race as it is hopeless. So two ways out of that – either kill the social programs and ecb stop doing qe, older ppl standard goes down and they are forced to sell assets to younger ppl or we go your suggested way – more qe more inflation lower productivity and wait for a wealth transfer which will not happen soon as older ppl have money to pay for good health. Europe is screwed big time
India and China might give bigger returns, but their politics and bookkeeping practices don’t exactly make them a place where I would want to park any amount of money.
Hello Sven, I also live in Europe (Belgium) and I was wondering how you would tackle it if you need to save (let’s say 3 to 5 years) for a down payment on a real estate property (first home buyer) whilst taking in account the insane devaluation of the euro? Is there any good alternative than to take the depreciation hit?£
Would it even be smart to buy real estate?
@Rexy, The Hound but how should I save for a down payment ? In a bond ETF? Gold seems like a bet as well?
I am from Germany my strategy is to invest in other countries and currency’s. And a bit of silver 🙂
An example because of a weak Euro my dividend yield jump the this year.
“10 Year Recession?” There’s no such thing. That’s a Depression. Europe is headed for a depression, unless the course is changed. I do hope for the best for Europe, as it is so important for the world economy.
Hi Sven. High quality video as always.
I would like to know your opinion on the matter Euro hedged or not when dealing with ETF/PAC. Considering the average european investor who tends to be exposed to dollar with stocks & Etf, and the background you have described in the video. Better hedged or not for the passive portion of portfolio?
This may be my favorite video of yours so far, and I’ve watched most of them – very useful insight. Looking forward to your video on real estate in a few weeks.
What about investing in danish, swedish, norwegian, british companies or in Switzerland? They don‘t have the Euro and their economies seem somehow independent from EU-issues…
no they are not. Uk is even worse.
The UK has damaged its relations with the biggest trading partner the EU, their alternative trade deals have been a flop so far. Nordics are still dependent on what happens in the EU as their biggest, closest neighbour and trading partner.
@Kvurenukri Daehd Moroz There is no damage. The relations are normal. They are all the same.
Every EU-Country is regulated by the EU parliament and has to implement any EU act just like the countries that have the Euro. Theres no escape.
@Gargamel🐥 incorrect they are damaged. It is too difficult to trade with a UK company now. Only the big companies are continuing to do so.
Hey Sven, what about shorting Italian long term gvt bd? I know it’s not investing in businesses, but do you think it makes sense?
did you hear about AMZX20 Jack?
It’d be interesting to add Chinese demographics to the outlook, I think it’s also a game changer
Yes, lots of people still think China is growing like wild population wise, when its the exact opposite now. Looking at other countries at their fertility level in the past though they should be booming fiercely right now before becoming smth like Europe or Japan. Just like Europe was booming before and Japan too.
I am not an economist but I would say that the “huge growth” in China is as productive (not at all) as the “huge growth” in Europe.
Despite all the problems i still feel like the US is the place to be becouse at least they are good at consuming.
The USA will probably be growing demographically still for many years due to high immigration too.
Anyone can consume. A strong economy produces.
Wow Sven you are cranking out the videos lately . Great content . I think China is in far worse shape than it is leading on and defaults on bonds could set off a crisis ,that undermines markets and pension funds in many countries .
Do these very long-term projections include technological development? Especially in the field of renewable energy, if we are talking 2055, and beyond, I see little reason to apply the same logic as we do today with the rapid growth of that sector, with the bans on new combustion engine cars incoming after 2035, with the rapid development of electric cars. If Europe succeeds on that front – and there are significant improvements already – it could be much more self-sufficient in the future.
Not paying an arm and a leg for oil to cover the need for transportation will make a huge difference. It will be like the 50-60s again.
I acknowledge and agree on virtually anything highlighted by Sven, who I thank in particular to have shown a picture of my beloved resort village where I have my residential property and live for half of the year when not abroad.
However I would like to highligh how much this year proved to be risky to invest in emerging countries due to geopolitical issues. Therefore I am cautious to invest outside the ‘Western’ world, albeit I have some investments. Think about the Taiwan issue and what would happen if things will become serious between US-lead AUKUS+NATO and China+countries in China spheere of influence. By closely following what’s going on from all sides I am afraid a PRC military intervention is more likely to happen sooner or later then not unless Taiwan will come to terms peacufully, which it does not look Taiwan and AUKUS want to accept.
I believe the massive US dollar weaponization used this year to damage Russia economy has started the definitive final decline phase of the US-centric unipolar world we have known for the last 30 years as many countries are considering to partially disconnect their economy from the current world reserve currency. I remind that the countries who did not sanction Russia include c. 6.7 billions out of 7.9 billions of the current world population in spite of very high US pressure in doing it. Just wonder why. Therefore I can barely imagine what a planetary chaos would happen in case of a military conflict between China and US. You may be aware that in these days Mexico and several other Latin countries refused to attend the very important Summit of the American hold in the US because US did not invite Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela representatives. Even Brazil was on the point not to attend the Summit. How the vast majority of the world would react to a US-China military conflict? Would Western countries sanction all those countries refusing to take position clearly siding with US in such a case with the result that all Western investments in these countries to be frozen fir many years or likely lost forever? What I mean is that careful consideration of geopolitical risk nowadays is of paramount importance.
Coming back to the probable needed medicine I doubt any government would naturally accept and give to its citizens, its electorate, what it looks more and more as a probable period of austerity for quite several years, perhaps a decade in some countries if not even more, as the inevitable conclusion of the current long-term economy cycle. Therefore all problems are passed to the next government and so on until the possible , albeit given the current large-scale war in Europe they may have the excuse as well the scapegoat.
I conclude with a quote from the great Warren Buffett which I find appropriate to the contest: “you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out”.
I am afraid the tide is clearly going out.
Thanks for your video. I guess the party will end when all of the money is spent. The cure for high prices is high prices.
We can only hope for increased productivity to mitigate labor costs. Imagine McDonalds with only two people feeding over a thousand people per shift. Or going to nicer restaurants and ordering at the bar and having waling back to the bar when your food is ready.
Something is going to have to give. Let’s hope we can cause some deflation with increased productivity.
If you have real estate that is paid off should you refinance?
Going short always always sounds like a gamble to me that can be exploited easily by professional big traders no matter the fundamentals – I rather own stocks/businesses, real estate, precious metals, even some bonds and even cryptocurrency, than going short on anything.
Yes, being short is always difficult, you might be right in the long term but if the market thinks otherwise you might be pushed out of your position first and end up with a loss even though you eventually be proven right.
Here in Sweden everyone has started to worry about their variable rate mortages (15/30 years fixed rate is not a thing here) but at the same time people plan to travel and burn money like crazy this summer. They think everyone is in the same boat (”too big to fail” mentality) and that the government will bail them out if something goes wrong.
Great content, Sven! I was just thinking about Europe a few days ago. Now, you have completed my thoughts!
I really like the way you point out the hard thruths about EU economy, it seems that the mayority of people I know are willingly looking away from the ugly truths. Thank you for the great video.
Great analysis Sven! I’m an Italian investment banker and i can tell you that your view on Italy is 100% accurate. This is the power of indipendence and knowledge and why you can bring so much value on your channel.
Sven, thank you for the interesting update on Europe. Being in the US, I envy Europeans’ lifestyle and quality of life. I want to visit so many countries in Europe and maybe live there. What is your favorite place in Europe?