Ebay Stock Quick Take (Turnaround)

is a turnaround, will the management make it?

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Quick Take (Turnaround)

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43 Comments

  1. Ebay doesn’t fit me.

    Looking forward to SWK since i already have a small position and want to buy more over time 🙂

  2. Cheap businesses can always get even cheaper. But how cheap can a great business get in a bad recession? For example, could we ever see microsoft at ~7p/e?

    ZIM integrated shipping has a >100% dividend yield and <0,5p/e as the company is expected to have declining profits. This surely isn't normal?

    1. @E S sure. I don’t expect msft to reach 100% trailing dividend yield, but the zim example gives context

  3. Maybe some REITs like O, Stag, and WPC that now have reached 5-6% dividend yield, if things go back to normal in 1-2 years they might go back to their all-time highs. I’d be interested to see that either here or on the platform. Also, I’m interested in a good price for TSM.

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. A video where you explain what you don’t like about them would still be interesting cause I haven’t heard many cons.

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. I would not touch REITS until inflation and mortgage rates retreat. TPH and Zillow may have value then

    3. @MR1shank you think it’s going to be worse than 2008? O kept paying the dividend then. When inflation and mortgage rate retreats it might be too late, buy when other are fearful. I would take my chances if O dividend reaches 7%, it did reach 9-10% in 2008 but I don’t think it will this time.

    4. @Mihai B I believe real estate will be the last sector to fully correct during this recession. So more pain is incoming, that being said dividends don’t mean anything if equity price falls significantly. Also depends on the type of REIT/properties. Avoid residential builders, industrial, and retail. Medical and apartments REITS may maintain pricing power.

  4. Thanks Sven, helpful as always. Looking forward to the HPQ analysis! I’m slightly worried about their unconditional buyback and debt level – they have 11B in debt (5.5B net debt) but continue buybacks and not paying down debt. But their EPS has increased since 2016 spin-off of HPE so they have been able to increase dividends (which is a catalyst for stock price, eg Nov 2021 announcement). I guess 6-7 forward PE (~15% yield) is enough margin of safety for me.

    1. I was lucky to get HPQ at 25$ and then sell for $40. After Sven does a video, I make sell a Put on it again. But I would not be surprised if HPQ was a $20 stock 4 months from now.

  5. Hi Sven, thanks for your work! I am looking into ABF (associated british foods) – boring business, combination of staple foods and retail (they own Primark). Being traded in british pounds, its price is being affected by the current turmoil, and so it looks very cheap to me (it is trading at book value). On the other hand the fundamentals seem good, and shouldn’t be strongly affected by inflation or other short-term phenomena. Any thoughts?

    1. I’d also love to see that! But considering the Economy in the UK I don’t see ABF doing so well…

  6. I have 5 of the 10 of these on my watchlist so I am either doing something right or wrong & I genuinely don’t know which.

  7. Excellent video – keep up the good work – suggestion for future analysis : InterActiveCorp – ticker (IAC), Medtronic PLC – ticker (MDT), Comcast Corporation – ticker (CMCSA) and last Salesforce – ticker (CRM)

    1. you didn’t say why, pick one, discuss the thesis and I can consider it. Please to so in a new comment as I don’t see the replies 🙁

  8. Even if I don’t like Ebay, for the same reasons you mentioned, it is always interesting to listen to your analysis! Thank you Sven!

  9. Thanks Sven, stocks like Intel, Cisco, and eBay should remind today’s buy the hot new thing investors thinking stonks will have massive valuations forever where they tend to ultimately end up. Unfortunately maybe a lot of these investors don’t remember the year 2000.

  10. I used to sell a lot on ebay. The issue with eBay as a business and a customer is their business is awful. The fees became outrageous. Yeah, I realize profits are important but don’t stick it to me. Also as a seller if anything goes wrong, even if it’s not my fault I get stuck with it. eBay is never there to help out or share the loss. Also eBay would charge commission on top of expenses! For Instance I sell a good for $10, the shipping is $20 and I pay fees on $30 of goods… Then what is something goes wrong I lose all $30 on something after fees I’d only make $7… This is why eBay is declining, bad for the customer as a seller.

    1. I was lucky to get HPQ at 25$ and then sell for $40. After Sven does a video, I make sell a Put on it again. But I would not be surprised if HPQ was a $20 stock 4 months from now.

  11. Thanks Sven, I would be interested in your opinion on Livechat Software (WSE:LVC). They have good profitability, maintain double-digit growth and paying 4% dividend with current valuation, management has skin in the game. I think being listed in Warsaw makes them often overlooked by international investors despite most of their revenue is in USD.

  12. there might be a small earning bump next quarter or 2 once the Eth miners start selling off hundreds of thousands of GPU but probably won’t help Ebay’s situation to be honest.

  13. MU – Micron. Chip-based business. PROS: PE under 7, leader in DRAM, North American production. CONS: stiff competition, slow down in the PC and data center market revenue streams. Super Investor whos has been a big advocate – Mohnish pabrai. Alternative to Intel? It would actually be good to do an Intel versus MU video. Good job SVEN, I really enjoy your analysis.

  14. Thanks for the assessment. EBay came on my radar when Seth klarman expressed support for the new incoming CEO. Guess I will hold? Indefinitely.

  15. When I see management buying at their highs it signals they have no interest in actually seeing their company turn around.

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