Disney Quick Take October 2022

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  1. short-term pain in the streaming game, for potentially long term gain. When they take market share they can raise prices. A similar path like Netflicks. But there is stiffer competition this time around. I could PARA or WBD a target for disney.

  2. I think Google is probably equal risk given the core business could face further disruption if Apple launches their own search engine and there’s a continued trend towards more privacy focused tools / regulations over the coming years. Not that this is a particularly high risk, or that Google wouldn’t survive it, but I think Disney is just a much harder business to disrupt because it’s value comes from IP and things that are very hard replicate like theme parks. Plus at rock-bottom valuations it’s also harder for Disney to disappoint. Google still has very healthy margins and investors assume they’ll continue to see secular growth trends for years to come. Any disappointment there would be extremely bad for the stock. I’d argue it’s that growth -> value rerating that’s been primary driver behind the META’s sell-off recently. It’s unlikely to happen to Google, but things change quickly in tech.

    1. Apple’s walled garden is not really global approach as its draw is not nearly as big outside US.

    2. ​@Valtteri Heikkilä I don’t wouldn’t expect Apple to copy Google search outright, but there’s definitely opportunity to redirect some of that search traffic and serve ads on it. They do it already to some degree with natural language questions and Siri, but may be able to create some kind of “Apple search” which runs a basic device + web search, for example.

      I’m just guessing, they might not, but the point is they own the platform and the fact Google has to pay Apple billions to be default search on iOS hints at who’s in control of that traffic and how much it’s worth. Google is great, but a lot of people don’t care that their search is done on Google or wouldn’t bother to switch the default to Google if it was something else that was good enough. This is especially true if Apple did something that improved on Google’s web search such as integrating their search with the device + Apple services.

    3. ​@Lee ​I see. It might make sense to a degree because Apple and Google avoid things that could be easy to regulate.

    4. @World travel Apple maps tells you where the speed cameras are in the UK. It’s pretty snazzy. It’s 💩for data on businesses and specific buildings.

  3. while i dont think current disney is without its faults such as lousy leadership and poor vision, it is still a cash printing machine with tons of monetizable ip’s and assets. A restructuring of the top with the right people could make a masterpiece of this mess

  4. Thanks Sven! Disney appears nearly always a bit too expensive. But their IP will be gold in the future.

    1. Everyone always talks about the IP for these companies. It’s worth a fraction of the company. What a company does with it is far more important.

  5. I am glad I got out close to the top, I thought it would recover better than this. I don’t think it’s really bad to get into it again, however – it’s not mouth watering yet. Perhaps -25% lower from here and it would be a really good buy. On the other hand it is DISNEY, so it’s not likely to become super low. They’re kind of like Coca-Cola, they’re likely to be doing well 20 years from now.

    1. @TheBooban its pretty easy. If you don’t have 10-20 year outlook what are you even doing in the market?

  6. with all the ip that disney owns, it’s hard to dismiss as a value brand, but when you look at what the company has been able to produce with brand that already have a built in net audience, it’s hard to buy in now knowing there’s more pain in that corporations future. it’s too big to dismiss altogether, and like nike will eventually outlive current protests.. but amazon and netflix are reeling in huge strraming pain as well… it’s really a race to see who figures out that antagonizing their already captured audience is not a good idea.. oh well.. even disney’s main park is not “magical” anymore, to the point it’s actually entertaining when universal studios takes shots at it.. blah

    great video, and ultimately I don’t doubt the knowledge…

  7. I feel you always analyze the same large cap stocks most of the time… I understand there are not so much Buffet type wonderful companies out there but it would be more interesting if there was more diversity. Like smaller stocks and more turnaround plays. You already analyzed ebay in the past…

    I am saying that in a constructive sense. I wish it does not offend you.

  8. Great analysis as always.
    Why not own both Warner and Disney? This will help spread the risk. Even throw in some Netflix: )
    I believe they will all do well even through recessions

  9. funny , 3 days ago i sold my dis shares to buy goog , for the same reason you just said in the video

  10. You do such a great job of analyzing companies, not just stock prices. I really like the way your work has evolved over the years!

  11. I appreciate the update on Disney! I’m waiting for the price to drop but it’s hovering around the same price. This is a good opportunity for me to develop and practice patience. Thanks for the video!

  12. I have hear many reports Disney has been greatly Exaggerating their revenues, especially when it comes to the Disney channel’s.
    As a business comment and not social one, I have heard much of their “woke” programming/movies etc are failing badly.
    Also thier decision to keep the CEO even after the stock crashed over 40% seems idiotic to me.

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