DHL Stock Analysis / Cheap Without Recession

stock is representative of the European economy and therefore when it is down, like it is currently the case, it is something to watch for two factors. The first factor is a possible investment in a business that has scale and is growing along with the e-commerce/parcel pattern that is anticipated to grow 9% annually as much as 2029 in Europe.
The 2nd factor to view is to get a real service grasp on the economy and for now, service activity tells us things in Europe are someplace in a limbo, not growing but not decreasing either. If things turn south for whatever factor, will follow which is the key danger. Unfortunately, there is little that might turn things on the positive except for the dividend and buybacks that already offer an intriguing shareholder yield.

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0:00 DHL Stock.
1:05 DHL Investing.
2:55 Structural pattern.
5:00 Worth Quadrant.

/ Cheap Without Recession

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37 Comments

  1. Very interesting Video Sven, thank you. I’ve also been looking at DHL in the context of your mail stocks video a year ago. Back then you advised to stick with DHL due to winner takes all effects. Indeed, some of these smaller mail stocks have been absolutely crushed since. My question is what you think of these now? Despite long term market consolidation, I feel that the national players remain in a defensible position and are now very attractively priced (Bpost and PostNL). For instance in Belgium, although there is insourcing by Amazon, they continue to dominate the market overall against the much more expensive alternatives.

  2. Insiders bought as well, I also bought the stock recently – Greetings from Germany 🙂 If you want to analyze further cheap German stocks, here some ideas: Villeroy&Boch, Washtec, Steico, Porsche Vz. & Hawesko …

  3. Koliko vidim po zadnjim videima kad je već vrijeme takvo da je market prenapuhan, pitam se koliko ima smisla tražiti kojekakve value-traps i kopati po kanti ima li išta što nije skupo. Općenito ako neka firma ne posluje danas znatno bolje nego prije pet godina jedan je od ozbiljnih znakova da je loša.

    1. “Mail” as in “envelopes” and not all envelopes, but “some envelopes”? Yes. “Mail” as in “package delivery” and “some other envelopes”: no, there is a huge market for non-state-owned delivery dedicated companies.

  4. I deliver mail on a walking route and tend to skip houses until they get 2+ letters/ a package for that day. They will probably end up delaying mail and delivering less times per week in sections of town.

  5. Inpost and other are disrupting the business currently..i see the trend continuing ( not to mention drone deliveries and other down the road)..value trap imho

    1. Drone deliveries for mass postal services are absolutely laughable and beyond impractical, pure wishful thinking.

  6. Thanks for the video. I have followed you for some years now, but I can’t remember if you made a video on WF and KB? (Both in my portfolio, but I am not impressed by the latest pullback) Would be interesting to know your take on those.

  7. Great video as always, thanks for sharing.
    Wgat do you think about MGM, they have bought back about 25% of their stock in the last 2 years, now trading at a low PE, FCF positive and growing, maybe good to dig more

    1. Because of his latest video on ADM. I think in the other recent video, he forgot to update his quadrant. 10% should be correct! 🙂

  8. Sven, do you normally count the dividend yield as its own factor when estimating future returns? I figured that since dividends come out of earnings, I might aswell just use earnings yield + growth = return.

  9. Thanks as always Sven! You are such a level headed person not getting caught up in hype and very generous to show your quadrant

  10. Hey Sven,
    What about Moderna and Pfizer for the after COVID boom, I’m interested about your opinion.
    Looks cheap with a lot of cash in hand.

  11. Where I live, the same DHL == Deutsche Post delivery guy now brings both letters and parcels – so the negative scale might not be that bad. He drives roughly the same route every day as far as I can tell.

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