Berskhire stock (BRK.A, BRK.B) is now a hedge due to its money position. In case of a market crash BRK could in fact go up like it held true in the 2000-2002 duration when the S&P 500 crashed almost 50% while BRK went up 77% in the exact same duration.
The reasoning is the following: with $325 billion in cash, Buffett is going to deploy that money in a crash. He typically likes to buy organizations that are short-term inexpensive however over business cycle offer at least a 10% profits yield. A 10% incomes yield on $300 billion is $30 billion. If I include that to the existing $40 billion of annual earnings and deduct the $10 billion he is now getting on the money from interest, I get to $60 billion in incomes for BRK. At the present PE ratio, BRK stock would increase, at the historic PE ratio of 15, it would stay stable (constantly comparing to a market crash), while even if down, it should crash less than the market.
BRK must be a strong position in a totally invested United States portfolio with the direct exposure much higher than the present BRK 1.73% direct exposure in the S&P 500. BRK now provides a much better longer term return and a much less risk compared to the market and lots of other investments.
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0:00 BRK Stock.
0:59 BRK Profits.
5:42 BRK Hedge Effect.
9:03 Value Quadrant.
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Just checked my portfolio and realized I’m holding 3% more cash…
without making a single sale!
Guess even my portfolio is following Buffett’s ‘more cash, less flash’ strategy.
:-))
I’m in process of reevaluating my portfolio so this is great news. Thank you❤
Wonderful!
9:00 Well i don’t know if I would call Google ‘extremely expensive’ – It has the same PE as Berkshire according to your calculation:)
have to update on it
Awesome video and interesting to see how you extracted the data and put it into a value investing framework. Keep up the good work! 😁
Thanks, will do!
Can you look at Campari after the drop.thanks
That would be very interesting
same as with these guys, plus the PE is still 20 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lr0gvEKxNM8
Was on the edge to sell BRK because of the huge Apple exposure. Now Warren sold most of the Apple shares and I am again a happy BRK shareholder 😊
Wise!
🙂
“Berkshire is always a buy” 😋
yep!
Buffett isn’t timing the market. He’s pricing it and his individual holdings.
as always!
great video. TY
thanks
Excellent post Sven
Glad you enjoyed it
Hello Sven, thank you so much for your lessons here !!!
One thing that sticks in my Mind is why BRK didint accumulate in the C-Crisis 2020
I know its easy to look in the back mirror now 😀
Just wondering what happend back there.
it was uncertain, but he did buybacks
I just bought $20k BRK this morning when it was down
good for you
It barely dipped though
thanks for sharing
Wasn’t ADM in a different spot in your investment quadrant just yesterday?
I prepared this vid before doing the ADM :-)))
You where very right buying BRK when it was at +/- 280
easy one
Thanks for video you are doing great job…
It’s my pleasure
have you done a video on how to value BRK ?
that is always a fun video to make:-) next week
Great video . thank you
Glad you enjoyed it
Very interesting take also considering the fact that the insurance returns are uncorrelated from the market makes it quite an interesting recession proof fortress
yep
Per usual, great video! I hope to run into you at the Berkshire weekend one of these years
BRK first needs to go cheaper :-)))
Thank you sir!
thank you!