Europe remains in a bad scenario and that is not yet clear to people due to the fact that things are still good. There was pent up demand and plenty of liquidity supplied by the ECB regardless of the 12% inflation. nevertheless, a look at the information shows the elephant in the room.
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Oh nice, I was just going through your latest videos and you just posted a new video right when I finished 🙂 Will watch this one now as an European (greetings from Belgium!).
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The problem with Italian companies is also that the best ones are privately owned (Barilla, Ferrero, Armani, Luxottica etc), and there is no shareholders-friendly culture: usually companies get listed when they need cash, the stock market is just a shop window for private equity. Alternatively, companies get listed in good times at high valuations and they get bought back when the price is low, leaving (unwise) investors in their underpants.
EssilorLuxottica is listed on Paris stock exchange if you like them
@Davide Castello Oh damn, my mistake!
@Philippus Paracelsus np the concept was clear and I agree 🙂
It’s an outrage! you must select Lukashenkо! he will teach them to respect investors!
Very interesting post, nothing has changed and nothing will change in the future. ECB will simply not let Italy go bust by increasing rates furher. Too many things are at stake. We are already in a high inflationary environment with CPI above 10 per cent and the interest rates in the Eurozone are around 2.5 per cent. Who pays it? People whose savings are being destoyed. As simple as that..
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I like the bottom up approach but I would start with the companies with the highest weight in the index. So I hope to see a video about them.
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Never thought the idea of bottom up analysis in stock.
Stock suggestion: Estonian stock, Enefit Green (EGR1T) , electricity company focusing on green stuff.
Gross Margin: 87%
Low debt
Catalist: Would say 10y investment while they will take bigger market share on other Baltic states.
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they have problems with the brakes.
Thanks for the video! It’s good to look at other not so well known economies in the market. I think some times viewers forget that you live in Europe so you would look at other European markets as well. I personally would like to learn more on global markets. Especially the ones you don’t hear as much about.
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Its a scam! Truffa!! non credete a sti ciarlatani!
Most of the best Italian companies are not in the stock market. Quite sad for an Italian investor
Have a look at ENI, Sven. It’s a decent company, well managed, and often falls to very interesting prices. Only good company in Italy 😂
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The Italian government will present it to Lukoil as a contribution.
There are also some interesting companies here, moncler for example:
It has some moat, good margins and returns on capital. And debt is not much their problem
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As an ‘industry insider’ I can tell you that with ABITARE IN you didn’t actually understood the company.
Actually you were very far from the truth.
Disclosure: I know the company since many years and at some point we were actually contemplating buying a stake (when it was still traded in the secondary market). Probably my biggest omission. We do NOT own any shares.
But I know them, I know their competitors, their clients and their consultants.
-The management is great. Their training is in IT so they do understand asset light business models and lean business through IT innovation. They stick to their little niche without any attempt on diworsification.
-The sale/marketing model it’s so advanced and efficient that it’s effectively a moat.
When every competitor think about you like a model they wish they could copy but they cannot you, can be pretty sure you are into something.
-Use of debt it’s actually structured in a way that they are net zero debt so that they can repay creditors at any time (+ interests are deductible). Banks would not kill a golden goose, trust me.
Also, in case of a 2020, 2008 recession debts get suspended anyway (I know, shouldn’t be like that and it’s not an official rule…but that the untold reality).
-They are a brand. When they open the sale gates they go in overbooking within days. They sell houses ON LINE.
At this stage of the pipeline they have yet to lay down a brick.
Lately they’ve even leveraged their expertise on acquisition/planning/permits by selling a plot of land to an other developer, doing the dirty job for him. Close to a mere arbitrage.
I cannot digress here on the details, of course.
I’ve also haven’t mention valuation. It’s not my point.
My point is that looks like you thought you looked at it bottom up but you probably used some heuristic based on the category. Real estate = interest rate sensitive = bad in time of rising rates (by the way, nobody knows the direction of rates…).
In this case the heuristic was just a giant bias. You haven’t really took the time to understand the business.
It’s understandable to be very selective and minimise the time spent on each name by using some shortcuts.
After all, you better swing to the easy balls instead of attempting to look smart with difficult ones.
And I personally empathise with the idea of having a bias toward some countries. Markets are not dumb and if they apply a discount to certain jurisdictions it’s for a reason.
I honestly struggle to blame you. It’s very hard for an industry outsider to really look at a business and not at row numbers. The devil is so much in the details that I’m very skeptic about stock pickers in general.
You really need to spend a lot of time on each opportunity before buying (and you might not even get to the actual core, ever).
For retail i think time it’s just better spent elsewhere. If you really manage to beat the index by 5%, with a small sum invested, that alpha is not justified for the time spent.
If you are a doctor, lawyer, small entrepreneur etc focus on what the society is actually already valuing from you.
That’s my 2 cents.
Take it or leave it.
you crossed my mind when I looked at the business, I actually looked at it twice, the business model and all, and I know and understand all you wrote, and I stick to my risk and reward analysis – I certainly hope I will be proven wrong over time, even if I doubt it…
Sven, thanks for the analysis. I agree with the conclusion about systemic risk. That said, perhaps it is a circular problem where businesses adapt to their environment. Bad businesses survive because of the ECB, but also they are bad because they know kind of environment they are in and what they are allowed to do (for example, cheap debt).
PS Very curious about your view on Aeroporto Marconi, which is the airport I use every time I go back!
One of the major problem in italy is that the goverment has it’s hands in most of the economy, A2A for example is controlled by local Municipal goverments in the north, the managers and c level executive are chosen by politicians. This creates bad incentives that results in a sizable part of the economy running on debt and subsidies.
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Great Video. A lot of folks have been going on about a January rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth these new year season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what about to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
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Hey Sven thanks for the great video!
As a suggestion for a future video, could you give us your take on the Hindenburg report on the alleged fraudulent accounting of the Adani group?
Thanks and have a lovely weekend 🙂
Always time well spent, watching your videos, Sven. Learned quickly here from you, the difference between top down vs bottom up analysis. Two terms that are much clearer to me now. Giving examples of companies w/ shaky fundamentals, to clarify Burry’s tweeted opinion, was enlightening…..Living In the US, I have one experience w/ an Italian corporation: A friend of mine worked for Nestle, manufacuring chocolate candy, for over 20 years. A few years ago, Ferrero bought out that division of Nestle, and expanded its factory where my friend still works in the US (now for Ferrero, instead of Nestle). He said it’s now better managed, and a better place to work than before. (A commentor earlier said that Ferrero is not publicly traded-just fyi.)
As an Italian one detail: the utilities considered are partecipated by the government (local one in the case of A2a or Acea)…this companies are extremely inefficient monopolies or oligopolies utilized by the politician to give a job to electors and political affiliates..their dividends are unsustainable and they will prefer to keep them ( because they go to the government) and build up more debt, knowing that in case of bankruptcy the government will step in
thanks for sharing, you summarized what I was thinking perfectly!
Hi Sven have a look at the Italian company SOL S.p.a. Great business with strong growing home care sector. I would like to have your opinion about that. . Thank you for your videos!
Making money is an action. Keeping money is behavior. “Growing your capital in a bear market is an art:]”
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He’s active on Tele-gram 👇🏽
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