BKNG Stock Quick Take – Moat Worthy?

or Reservation Stock looks fascinating thanks to its moat and customer stickiness – will that hold is the huge concern?

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Quick Take – Moat Worthy?

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34 Comments

  1. Hi Sven, could you take a look at ASML from the Netherlands. I believe its one of the most crucial companies in the world atm even though a lot of people never heard of it. I am having a bit of trouble analysing the fair value of ASML. Hope you can help!

  2. Thanks. Waiting for Verizon. Interesting analysis. Conclusion so far: Google is better than those 9 business.

  3. Sorry Sven put I think you didn’t do good work with this analysis

    Net income is 1.5b$ (because there is 1.8 loss of investments)

    Last 4 years the company did 5% yearly buyback (you saying in the video that the company don’t do buybacks

    You didn’t talk about there Chinese investments (there must worth something)

    You didn’t talk about there 2.8b net cash (it’s free cash so it must be calculated)

    You didn’t Considering these variables in your analysis, and that change Risk and reward

  4. Seems like the bottom line on amost all of those 10 stock video series you’re doing now: “Why don’t I just buy google instead?”

  5. I wouldn’t invest in Booking. Sounds like a long term value trap.
    I personally use Expedia, Airbnb, or I just directly contact the hotel

  6. Thank you for your quick take on BKNG. I thought the ticker symbol was for Burger King at first, so it was interesting to learn about Booking =)

  7. Hello Sven, Can Rio Tinto (RIO) considered as a hedge in the current environment? Can mineral resources of RIO do well in a recession or it will fall as the market? It has a high Dividend Yield of 11.5% and YTD outperform SPX which is down 21% when RIO is down 13%. Your thoughts will be valuable

  8. For your consideration Sven…

    WEF on Toronto stock exchange. Western forest products. Sawmill and timber harvesting mostly in costal British Columbia (Canada)

    Opportunity… I believe the company can do ~$70M in FCF with lumber prices @$300-400/1000 board feet. Similar to 2018. Market cap is $450M. History of returning cash to shareholders. A lot of noise in their results 2019-2020 due to strikes, production issues.

    Vs other lumber companies (Canfor, Interfor) there is less debt and more stability in pricing due to larger percentage of revenue from specialty lumber vs commodity. Forward multiples are similar and think forestry space in general is pricing in too much pessimism on future of housing market.

    Risk is obviously housing market in North America. 60% of rev is NA, 36% Canada. While I think some softness in short run, I find it hard to see scenario where they can’t do FCF = current market cap over next 7 years. Very little debt.

    1. What about risks such as actually timber supply in BC and regulatory issues?
      Canadian regs are driving more lumber production & timber sourcing demand to the states.

    2. @DerMeister812 both good risks to be aware of.

      forest fire risk has always been and will always be there. It may create volatility in earnings

      On BC gov… what politicians say to appease tree lovers, and what they actually DO… often seems to differ. Forestry important industry and I don’t think BC gov will ever restrict logging to the point where sawmills sit idle.

    3. @mknox242 Well, I didn’t mention forest fires, and what the government in CA and BC actually has been affecting things, it’s not a “if maybe” issue. I worked as an analyst in paper and now I work as a corporate (fill in the blanks) for a company that sources some timber from CA. There are serious issues going on in BC that IS (PRESENT TENSE) driving more timber supply demand back to the lower 48. This isn’t what you are acknowledging in your scenarios.

  9. Hey Sven.. I have a request: Kronos worldwide (KRO). Titanium dioxide pigment manufacturer, on of the top 5 worldwide. Strong B/S and low leverage. High dividend yield (~8%) and strong cash flow generation. Good market share globally and high barriers to entry. Risks: family controlled, highly cyclical industry, leveraged to the housing and auto sectors, leveraged to the European continent in particular Germany that is going through obvious turmoil. Reward: the company is trading at 1.2x tangible book value compared to competitor chemours trading at ~4x book. Other competitors in the top 5, besides chemours are highly leveraged and have poor capital structure making them very vulnerable during the downturn. What am I missing here? I want to know you opinion. Is it a good investment?

  10. Hello Sven. Would love to see videos for CE – Celanese and LYB – LyondellBasell . Both in the same industry, beaten down YTD, paying in my view “healthy” dividend and strong balance sheets.

  11. Hi Sven, I’m curious what is your opinion about OCI NV. It looks very interesting from my perspective having a dividend yield of 18 with a payout ratio of approximately 30%. In general stocks with those kind of yields have collapsing stock prices, but not in this case, where the 1Y increase is 58% and 6M is 21%.
    It is true that there revenues and earnings were helped by the increase of prices in natural gas, but it seams that their products are well positioned for a future with lower CO2 emissions. Also I do like that their production facilities are positioned on 3 different continents, and could profit from different local opportunities.

  12. Sven, how about lithium miners analysis? I would love to hear about $LLKKF opinion as is penny stock but I think it has nice potential in future years.

  13. Hi Sven, great work with these quick takes, I love it 🙂
    Can you please take a look at BMW.. Trailing PE of 2, forward PE of 4-5, price to sales, price to book ratios are incredibly cheap.. And it is a 8% dividend. We are both from Europe and also from Croatia, so we know the brand strength that this company has, but they are also huge worldwide. Might be interesting to look at. Especially with commodity prices going down and shipping rates going down so they should have less headwinds going forward.

  14. Hi Sven! Thank you for the great content! Could you please do a analysis on Rentokil Initial? Ticket: RTO. I’m sure you will add to your YouTube portfolio! Cheers from the UK!

  15. Hi Sven! Great video, as the others! Thanks for your valuable insights!

    Wondering what you think about Lumen technologies, ticker symbol LUMN. Even if it is “dying” and as they sell part of the business, I would say it is still worth something. They have huge infrastructure, capex to maintain it is less that yearly depreciation. Cash flow is still there, EPS is almost 2$; even if it goes to 1 and a P/E of 10, still worth 10$ = 42% upside (from actual 7$), + the dividend (1$/year; indeed, risk to be cut).

    Thanks! All the best and keep up the good work!

    Alex

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