ASML Stock is Not a Positive Asymmetric Risk And Reward Bet from both a short-term and a longer term basic perspective. The business is a great one, nothing wrong with it but when I compare the basics and expectations to ASML's current stock price, the investing positives are merely not there.
ASML Stock is Not a Positive Asymmetric Risk And Reward Bet
ASML Stock is Not a Positive Asymmetric Risk And Reward Bet
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Lam Research is the safer bet
2025 Guidance of 30B euros on the lower side at 28% net margins puts us at 31 PE which historically is the lower the stock has gone so far. Keep in mind that in 2026 INTC and TSM new fabs will start to ramp up, so the demand should spike. I think starting a position at this valuation is not a bad idea at all and if it tanks 15 or 20% you deploy more funds, they are building new facilities in Eindovhen to fullfil the demand which I think tells a lot about the strenght of the business and what management is expecting.
Which INTC fabs will ramp up? Do you mean the German and Polish ones? Those got postponed to 2029.
It’s very clear from ASML management on the recent conference call that Intel is pulling back its order book (they haven’t cancelled yet…but INTC also has no money and is whoring itself out to Apollo, Brookfield and whoever else they can find to give them money…who clearly will take advantage of them). Samsung also pulling back. TSM is playing hardball negotiations with the TWINSCAN EXE: 5200 High NA machines (though pretty sure they will be forced buyers at a better price). Whether Harris or Trump wins, it’s likely US export restrictions to China are likely to worsen and then China going from current 47-49% of current ASML sales down to 20% next year…we can all do math. The Dutch government now requires ASML to get their approval before sending out its EUV machines
Only HBM and DDR5 in memory and leading edge nodes in logic remain in a cyclical uptrend. IoT, industrial, renewable, automotive and PC segments still under pressure. Maybe there’s some hope for mobile but that seems murky currently too.
I agree with Sven on the significant risk still not being priced in, though I have a 2025 FV of $910 applying a 25x forward multiple to current 2026 EPS estimates. But if those estimates are too high, multiple compression is expected so I always apply a 20% discount so maybe get this to $683 FV (below which I’m allowed to nibblwe). So still not cheap despite it’s sell off. FYI I’ve been a shareholder since Dec 21 (bought too early but averaged down nicely during the 2022 bear market so in a good spot currently).
However ASML remains a moat. There is no way forward without this company or TSM so really buying both into weakness over time makes sense (to me). Maybe tranches if all hell breaks loose.
Cheers.
I see this all the time, where people compare the price to itself to see if it is cheap historically. Personally, I don’t think it makes sense…I prefer to look at the value I likely will get (profit!).
A P/E of 35 means with no growth, it will take 35 years to earn back the price we pay, which is about a 3% yield. Now of course I realize it is likely to grow but it would have to grow a lot for this to get a decent yield (say 10% or better). And it may, I just don’t like to rely on aggressive growth for a good return.
I’d much rather own Google, which is trading for 24 P/E and 35 P/FCF (free cash flow). Even then, I think it is a pinch expensive.
I see ASML as of 10/20/2024 trading at 38 P/E and 92 P/FCF. It’s too rich for me, but good luck to anyone choosing to invest. Hopefully I am wrong!
Lvmh is the best opportunity at these levels?
Companies only invest when times are great and cut when times are bad, presicely the opposite of what a smart man would do.
Asml is expanding like crazy and only future demand has dropped. When the new fabs are in place and the semi-cycle flips, the books of asml will be full for years.
Semiconductor industry has always been cyclical, but with a cylce that is usually about 10-15 years, it might not be the wisest to go all in at this moment.
Sven, your videos are the best thing to watch in the morning with a cup of coffee!
AI stocks have become the trader’s stock, moving too far from fundamentals. It’s better to stay away if you’re a long-term investor or buy at a price that doesn’t factor in future projections, like when META dropped and you got AI/Metaverse for free! Because we don’t know who will be the winner at the end!
I love this channel because you tell another story than the other channels and your stories are fitting better to my perception of reality.
Just sold a property in Texas and I’m thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy ASML stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I’m really just confused at this point.
Yes, a good number of folks are raking in huge 6 figure gains in this downtrend, but such strategies are mostly successfully executed by folks with in depth market knowledge
true, despite having no prior investing knowledge, I started investing before the pandemic and pulled in a profit of approximately 950k that same year. In reality, all I was doing was getting professional advice.
That’s a great tip. I’m setting out 50k to invest in the market this year. Any particularly useful tips you could offer to me?
Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
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ASML is a good company if you are a longterm holder.. If you are shorterm don’t buy.
I personally believe the opposite, haha! Too expensive long term, but might go back up a bit short term. A good company no doubt, but for it to be a good investment it needs to be fairly priced. If this was a third of the price I’d be buying don’t get me wrong.
I guess nobody knows for sure without that crystal ball that investors sometimes talk about…
I can always count on Sven to inject reality to my exuberance,
Thanks for the informative video,your information is incredible, however, knowing that everything related to investing. I advise traders, especially beginners, to research the market before entering it.I have to say there are more benefits to trading than just holding. Big thanks to Mario’s Joseph who always keeps me updated. I am so glad I started his program .
This is interesting. I heard a lot about the same person not long ago, please how do I start or contact him?
He’s mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
@MarioJsignal✊✊
Don’t write anything other than that username, be careful of scammers who claim to be like him
Thanks for the info… I’ll contact him as soon as possible. I also want to get good knowledge and stop losing…
not agreeing with you on this one Sven; business fundamentals are amazing, ROCE of 45% last 2 years, average on last 5 years is 30%; Debot to Equity: 0,25; Interest coverage: 250x; huge Moat and a monopoly; assuming a long time perspective this price is attractive; real risk in my opinion is geopolitical namely government limitation on chip exports to China but I can’t predict that
Yeah, don’t think this was a very strong analysis. Mostly numbercrunching, but not taking into account the moat. It really is something else than even Apple.
IPhone sales may tank in bad times, but the demand for ASML’s machines is a certainty
One of the easiest buy indeed this year for me. I managed to buy at the very bottom. I’m ready to buy more if it reaches 600 for some reason. I’m used to better analyse from Sven.
Hi sven, thanks as always! What about STmicroelectronics? The stock is down 50% from its top. On the semi-conductor sector it is better to be a contrarian, thus it would be a great time to look at it!
that fu***n Stmicroelectronics went down a lot in the last few months! I’ve lost near -31% and it wasn’t at the top! It suffers from Stellantis and a weak demand. We will see…
I’m favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs,.$90,700 biweekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy
Huge! Been trying to trade on my own for a while now, but it isn’t going well. few weeks ago I lost about $70,000 in the trade. Can you please at least advise me on what to do?
Well, It’s all thanks to Robert Marion
Mr Marion Such a genuine personality!! He is really a good investment advisor. I was privileged to attend some of his seminars. That’s how I start my crypto investment.
Robert platform maintains a unique perspective and is very transparent with their investors. Regardless of whether or not he outperforms. I will forever stay invested!
Spot-on, I would always rate his signals as one of the best ever used 100% accurate.
I like the fact that you use DeGiro and also in dutch language. 😉
Interesting where you put Teleperformance on your, great btw, Quadrant.
convinced that investing $50k-100k in the right company before it goes big is better than just saving for retirement. But since picking the right company is hard, saving might be safer—who would’ve guessed SPGI? I have $200k in a HYSA and want to invest. What are the best opportunities now?
I find it more productive and safe to buy growth/blue-chip stocks rather than etfs. It’s advisable to work with a fiduciary advisor for well-diversified portfolios instead of relying solely on speculations.
I agree with you. As an early investor in NVDA, AVGO, ANSS, and LRCX, my financial advisor’s advice was incredibly helpful. Over the past 7 years, she has helped me find stocks that did 10x multiple times. With her help, I’ve grown my portfolio to over a million dollars.
How do I reach out to a financial advisor, my portfolio has been struggling since 2022 and I’ve been holding on by the skin of my teeth.
My CFA is Sonia Nunes Demelo, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further… She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Hi Sven, great round of videos. Would you consider one on Viasat VSAT?
Sven can you review qualcomm? Thanks.
I am impressed with your update on these stocks, now my question is which is best to buy at this time. I have some liquid assets to diversify.
Sven what about Continental Ag?