Am I Making a Huge Mistake With Tesla?

is the most gone over stock on YouTube so we follow the pattern here. I constantly get concern so I duplicate myself here.

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Am I Making a Huge Mistake With Tesla?

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50 Comments

  1. Ark’s valuation assumptions are so exuberant even on the bear case. I think it’s disgusting how badly they mislead investors

    1. @KingE Based on track record, I would say yes, they are misleading naive investors. Buying a lot of companies that make little or no money with insane valuations is a sure way to lose money. TSLA worked for her, Sven has a point, maybe she should just pile it all into TSLA as its pretty much the only thing that worked for her 😉

    2. ARK in 2019 was the only analyst to call out the correct valuation for Tesla which it then exceeded in 2020. Everyone was calling ark crazy then as you are now.
      I have done my own analysis and can see Tesla easily reaching Arks bear case price WITHOUT any FSD or robotaxi. Just cars and energy

  2. WARNING: As the channel grows (thank you all for that), there are more and more scammers impersonating me. The only thing I am selling is my Research Platform and Book ​​https://sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
    All that I do, the real links to my content are in the description of the video, I don’t give out my Whatsapp number and I don’t sell any Cryptocurrency related things! BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!

    1. It’s a shame that YT allows that kind of spam comments, even series of comments that end up promoting some unknown trader… 👍

    2. I think when doing future videos about Tesla, you should completely ignore Ark. The time you spent on them was time you didn’t spend telling us your own thoughts

    3. HI Sven. I love your videos. Thanks for sharing. I agree that ark has a ridiculous valuation, you may not know but even Elon himself disagreed when it was first published! About ark having such a small % of their portfolio they have said that being an ETF they find themselves obligated to rebalance each time any position surpassed 10% wich they have done with TSLA many times in the past. I don’t know much about ETF play rules but it seems to have payd off for an ETF of hyped stocks. (In the sense to avoid even bigger crashes for any single position)

  3. Wow a lot of tesla enthusiast, now i understand why value investing was and is for few people (patience, rationality)

  4. Without the metrics tsla was already not for me due to the volatility and the loose cannon ceo. With the metrics the picture is even clearer, thanks Sven

  5. Sven – you have never analysed Tesla with an honest and serious perspective: you have always started your analysis from the perspective of other market participants like Ark and then mocked their analysis rather than actually sitting there and analysing Tesla as if no other analyst has ever talked about them.

    IF you analyse Tesla from that perspective, you will be surprised… maybe you won’t value them at 700b but who knows.

    Their technological lead and speed at which they are iterating new designs is literally shocking to the industry… it is absurd, and unseen in 100 years of manufacturing. They have sooooo many other businesses in the Tesla umbrella (the super charger network for example, FSD, insurance, energy etc) which if valued as sum of the parts would be incredible but they also seamlessly integrate and mutually complement / support the Tesla mote.

    Just because it’s popular doesn’t make it 💩.

    1. I think I said, they did really great, but I am also looking at the price, the risk and what keeps the price up which is exuberance! So, just sharing my opinion, thanks for sharing yours!

    2. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. what is your valuation of it? What would you pay?

    3. @Gavin I did. He doesn’t value it other a super shallow ‘it’s trading at 100x free cash flow’. Come on. That’s just so shallow it’s pointless

  6. Tesla could see double pressure on margins if there is a recession to go with what seems to be a looming crisis of defaults on auto loans here in the US. Fewer buyers at the same time as a glut of low mileage used cars on the market is a risk over the next few years.

  7. When someone regards Tesla as a value play he simply does not understand what value investing actually stands for. Nothing against the company, but the valuation is by far off the chart…..

  8. 4:05 I swear that report almost made me spit coffee all over my monitor when I read I laughed so hard. They clearly are huffing large amounts of ML copium when it comes to their rosy outlook on autonomous driving, or have never ridden in an FSD Tesla trying to navigate anything other than an empty highway during a cloud-free sunny day.

  9. Looking at ARK’s valuation models, I have noticed one thing: they first assume what the total adressable market will be for a given technology, followed by assuming that company X will take over 25% or more of this TAM (in the bear case). Have they even heard of competition?

    1. Well they also assume the worst case scenario for Tesla stock is to 4x over the next 4 years. They supposedly have dozens and dozens of input variables in the valuation model, unfortunately it seems like there was not quite enough room to account for any risks.

    2. Also ARK’s job is to attract (dumb) investors. Like the analysts, they will always paint a pretty picture of their stocks to avoid scaring everyone. They are salesmen, and will do everything (lies? scam? Omit? ) to sell.

  10. Thanks for this, my husband wanted to buy Tesla stock 4 years ago and I refused since we are, well I am value investors now in our 40s. In our 20s and 30s, lots of growth but for the next 20 years value all the way! Give me proven results and a lot of cash!

  11. I would love to own TSLA but it hasn’t come back to Earth. Oh. and anecdotal evidence but, I own a Tesla and have the FSD beta and can tell you – it is far from ready. Too many edge cases that the car is not able to handle. It’s currently a danger on the street and shouldn’t be in people’s hands yet. They’ve managed to get the more than 80% needed to create a great FSD experience, but that last 20% is going to take many, many years.

  12. i remember valuing tesla at 300$ and thinking it was very overpriced then it tripled from there. At one point in 2021 it was worth as much as the next 10 manufactorers combined! absolute insanity

    1. It’s about the profit; _the strategy already appears to be paying off. Tesla’s net profit increased more than sevenfold on the year in the January-March quarter to $3.3 billion, not far behind Toyota’s 533.8 billion yen ($3.93 billion)_

  13. Well said, it’s the broken clock strategy, twice a day you get the right time 🙂

  14. If you count their current earnings, current factories and possible expansions in those, current demand and most importantly: brilliant execution. I have little doubt they will grow into their current market cap in a few years time.

    Beyond that, it is anyone’s guess. But they do have a good track record, and are way ahead in AI and engineering. Even if self driving is still 10y away, they will be the one that solve it.

    TSLA isn’t a value play. I consider it more as an option on the future, an option with a very very low chance to expire.

  15. Good review of TSLA being any kind of value or not. I bought my granddaughter a Tesla “to the moon” chart t-shirt for her birthday right after the 1,200 top a few months ago. So I figure the top is in for a while…lol

  16. Thank you Sven! Great video as always. Have you paid attention to BMW stock? Looks very interesting P/E less than 3, dividend about 8%. Revenue bigger than market cap, earnings 2x bigger than tesla. What do you think on it?

  17. i get it. Sven is looking at it from the lens of value investing. Stocks like amazon, netflix would never be bought by a value investor in the early 2000s.

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