Ahold Delhaize Offers Good Returns AMS:AD

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Offers Good Returns AMS:AD

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  1. Thanks for another great video! I did check this one some weeks ago and the rising amount of debt concerned me. I picked Amsterdam Commodities (ACOMO) over this one, as even if it has some debt as well I think the market didn’t understood a big acquisition they did. I would love a video of that one 🙂

    Cheers dude

    1. This is to look at the sector and follow, then whet it becomes possibly really interesting, we will make a full sector analysis!

  2. 6:40 Thanks for this analysis. Why not included into our YouTube portfolio? If goes low we can buy more. Does 27 it’s to risk for our demo?

  3. I will go with short term treasuries for a while…. I don’t think that groceries and supermarkets will do well during this recession.

    1. @Mark A Yes, obviously people will eat, they will go to Wall Mart in Usa, or Tesco and Leclerc in Europe… but here we have also discount, like Lidl, Penny, Eurospin etc.. and discount have very efficient business model, they are hard trained to work and survive with low margins.
      So this sector is pretty a mess, low margins, high competition, no “moat”…. ok there is infrastructure for distribution… but is not enough for me. And let’s not talk about their selling surfaces that i suspect expanded too much, like there is no tomorrow in the last decade.

    1. @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. then I would never buy a retail business with such low margins, such a low margin implies little competitive advantage.

  4. Been wanting to buy Albert Heijn for years but the price seems a tad high for a consumer staples retailer.

  5. Sven, in your book you write that one should count on at least one recession in a 10 year period. How come your normal and optimistic scenario do not have a dip. Does the negative scenario cover for the recession? PS. I would still like to get my hands on a signed book

    1. because I can’t spend days on every detail that can be included everywhere and so, this is the analysis for now, the rest is a process…

  6. Quality of management? Track record? Balance sheet / debt rising interest rates? I listened this video and my quick conclusion is that the potential upside is too limited relating to downside. Not enough margin of safety.

    1. track record – the last 20 years
      low debt
      margin of safety – retail, groceries
      but yet, as discussed, it can go into teens 🙂

  7. Thanks for the video Sven. Can you do a video about the screening tools you use for financial information? I find it hard to get info about divided history with European stocks. Thanks and keep up the amazing work.

    1. I don’t really use screening tools, I just go stock by stock, so I learn the most!

  8. During my internship in Utrecht, I didn’t see the point of going to Albert Heijn when I have Lidl selling the same things for cheaper and the other competitor Jumbo. But the Dutch still like it so… 🙂

  9. Hello Sven, Ahold is paying more on buybacks + dividends than it makes in free cashflow. That isn’t sustainable in the long run

    1. 2022 expected: CF per share 5.14 EUR, of which dividend 1.05 EUR = 3.89%, double that and you also got the stock buybacks and you’ll still be below 50% CF per share. So no idea what you are looking at.

  10. I think grocery retailers are a good investment here. At some point food material costs might drop, but do you ever see something get cheaper in the supermarket? 😉

  11. I don’t believe that in a recession people will stop buying food. 🙂 Long on AD. Greetings from the Netherlands.

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