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Just opened a position. Will re-evaluate the case after their investor day in November. I think you need to update the EPS in your valuation model, the one you are using are from 2020? If you use 18% growth in your model and the last FY EPS of 18.21, the price should be approx. EUR 740 with a 10% discount rate and 15% multiple. This is basically the price today. So according to your model Adyen is now priced for worst case scenario, or in other words, little downside and a lot of upside. And this is without accounting for any future margin expansion. I understand you find it to risky to invest in, but I don’t think the valuation in your video represent the current situation. Thanks for the video 👍
I really Like your Videos, thank your very much for your Work. Keep it Up 🙂
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Adyen is an intresting Stock, maybe I will buy a small Position after I did my own Research
Let’s not forget that the biggest payouts don’t come from great performances but Rather it’s great promotion’s.stay invested, diversification for streams of income is very important with the right skills and proper understanding of how the market works<
Nice advise !! Trading is profitable compare to hodl and with the market on the bull,it’s good to day trade to double your profits.
>I urge everyone to start somewhere now no matter how small,this is literally time for that,forget material thing’s don’t get tempted. I became more better immediately I realized this
Glad i decided to start using her signals since last month my portfolio has been up by 6.4 BTC<
>Oh yeah that’s her job bcuz she thought me how to invest in bitcoin , how to invest daily , when to trade and the asset to trade on
Short but on point!
Love the video :D. I was wondering what do you think about Novo Nordisk A/S from a value investors perspective since has it has had such explosive growth.
Ik vind het een echt luchtkasteel.
As a SaaS operator, nearly everyone who I know uses Stripe or Lemon Squeezy. I looked at Adyen but the fact that I have to fill out a long form first and can’t just create an account like at the competitors will scare every normal Software company away. Adyen is maybe interesting for traditional companies but most Software operators will prefer the flexibility of Stripe or Lemon Squeezy
Maybe I am looking for different type of companies then Sven but I do not see the moat for companies like Adyen – there must be tens of payment providers and they look like the can do the same thing as Adyen. I realise scale may be an advantage but otherwise I would think they must be fighting one another for margin like cats in a sack.
@John Spencer A moat is not if other companies cannot provide the same thing. It is *how* it is provided. Anyone can provide burgers, but McDonalds still has a moat.
That graph from 2020 to today is pretty common I think. Things went crazy and then settled down, especially for companies whose growth was based on speculation.
The same was said of BABA, INTC, and VZ
The same was also said of META, NFLX
INTC is ripping since it bottomed at 25
Walgreens near $20 doesn’t even make it to the YouTube portfolio?
Assuming 5 years of stagnating revenue at 132b, 2.5% profit margin (as guided), 40% profit distribution as a dividend and a terminal multiple of 10, you get roughly $30 (discounting at 10%).
If margins normalize back to 3% and the multiple expands to 12, then all esle equal we are at $40.
And if revenues can grow with inflation at 3%, then we are near $50.
People are irrationally selling out of the stock at an absurd price: isn’t this the same thesis you had for WBD? Except that here you have a stable business with cashflows and a dividend.
We are at 20-year lows for God sake…
Hi Sven.
Thanks for good work.
I’m researching the Equinor (EQNR)
I didn’t found in your platform.
If is interesting for you can you do some analysis please.
Thanks
in general its hard to invest now in payments, so much new fintech, hard to know who will be the winners in 10 years
Invest in the innovators, adyen more employees while Mollie less employees. Thats a sign of their internal outlook.
Other argument that adyen Can be a winner in the long term is that Adyen serves worldwide topcompanies with not to much competitors there. That creates the money needed for the competition in the middle market.
Hey Sven, I just read your book. I’m wondering what you think about investments in BTG, SBSW, and IMPUY. I am a new investor, but I believe these companies seem to be undervalued.
You said that about Rubis when it was 15% higher than it is now.
Love it! Great lesson for all investors.
I am so glad I began investing just before Covid crash and actually witnessed what a crash looks like.
It drastically changed my mentally from ‘growth hunter’ to more of a ‘risk checker’.
If we do our best tactics in avoiding downside risks, we shouldn’t worry much about the upside story. That will automatically come if the business remains fundamentally good.
Thanks Sven! Keep up the good working.
P/E compression is not your friend as it comes mostly from the price going down and not the earnings going up!!
Thanks Sven
Sven, update your model to 2023 numbers and use EV rather than market cap – things will look much different.
Incredible talent!
From my POV Adyen is as useless as PYPL or Block.
I use a Visa since approx. 20yr, never had a problem with that, was always and everywhere accepted and i will continue to do so.
Using Adyen just adds more fees… completely and utterly useless. My personal fair value for that company would therefore be at around $ 0,-
edit: additional fees depending on the payment method can be up to 12%! that’s crazy
When you use your Visa, it goes through a payments services provider like Stripe, Adyen, etc. It facilitates communicating with your card issuer’s bank, the merchant’s bank, and Visa / MasterCard / Amex / etc. Visa is just a small part in that process. Ironically, Adyen cuts out many of those middle services and offers them itself which allows them to charge even lower fees than others. If you’ve paid for a major service lately like Netflix or Uber, you’ve already been using Adyen.
You might find some companies in the Singapore Stock exchange market which can meet your investing goals. Comparable with the Chinese companies, in Singapore is the geopolitical risk lower and the valuation quite good at the moment. I am looking forward to hear your analysis about this market.
SE is a deal and a half at current prices