ADBE Stock Quick Take – Another 20% down!

We just recently did an analysis and because the stock is down another 20%, just how much lower can it go?

Adobe stock first analysis

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24 Comments

  1. You are on fire with all these videos 😂

    My suggestion is Burford Capital.

    This is the largest litigation funder in the world. Basically, large companies or persons who have a lawsuit but not money can get funding from these guys, and if they win, Burford takes about 40% of the recovery. The cost to Burford is usually £10-£20m to fund a big case, but those cases are usually worth £100m to £4b so it’s an asymmetrical proposition. They only need to win a minority of cases to come up wildly profitable.

    Downside is that cash flows are completely unpredictable because you never know when a case might settle or when a court hearing will take place and whether or not you win! Some years are wildly profitable, other years nothing happens.

  2. Some youtuber called adam khoo said to everyone it was a huge buy. He doesn’t know anything. Also claimed the stock market bottom was in June. So many financial youtubers spend all day making rubbish videos.

  3. Adobe must have realized figma was going to completely disrupt them. Prob a smart purchase in the long run. But 20 bil is more then Marks metaverse.

  4. Please cover Intercontinental Exchange Inc :
    •huge moat
    •market leader
    •largest stock exchange in the world
    •pays dividends
    •good dividend growth
    •clearly undervalued

  5. Thanks for your analysis Sven and the great video about Kohls. As Charlier Murger said, retail sector is hard to invest and what Kohl’s trying to do, has been done by its competitors for long time ago such as Target, Wm, etc.

    If you have a chance, please take a look at BIC a pen manufacturer company, which is a boring sector, has a boring name but its pen literally lays all around my work desk. The company has a strong balance sheet, positive earnings and perform well YTD due to people are getting back to work and school.
    While analyzing BIC (Otc: BICEY), I also looked at its competitors and NWL is very interesting “who does not know Sharpie in US?”

  6. Great video! Would be nice if you could check Aedifica (AED) stock ! Its a great REIT in Europe with good growth and stable business model with Occupancy (100%) , all with long-term leases and mostly focused on elderly care homes. Another + for this stock is that it was covered on your site 1-2 years ago and now the stock price is 30% lower. Would be nice if you do a video about this stock because we can also hear your opinion and risks-rewards about investing in European REIT stocks in 2023. Thanks for reading !

  7. It’s a mistake to focus at Figma P/S ratio. It was a strategic move, not a value play. We will see how it plays out. In 2006 Google paid $1.65B for YouTube that was generating only $15M of revenue (2016) – that’s 110 P/S! Now YouTube generates $1.65B of revenue… every 3 weeks! Just to give a perspective

  8. Hi Sven, very interesting video serie!!
    I would like your thougths on Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

    Biz
    Specialty retailer for home.products

    Pro
    Steady rev increase (2x since 2012), fcf yield constantly increasing (from 4% to 12% in a decade), stable margins, high bb (30% shares repurchased in 10yr), div 2.5% yield with payout of 18% (historically was higher at 40/50% since rev where lower), working in a fragmented market with possibility of market share increase, expansion in Asia (mainly india), increasing B2B very fast

    Cons
    Increasing intetest rate is hitting housing sales so it could impact them (but.their management was present in 2008 so I would say quite experienced)

  9. Hi Sven, I think Celanese is a great contender for the YT portfolio. It is now at a lower price than when Buffet bought it (I am the one who send you an email about it like a month ago).

  10. I have a suggestion:

    – Name: Guerbet SA
    – Description: They develope and market contrast media (X-ray)
    – Risk: low margins and the debt is high so refinance could be a problem in the current enviroment but they have focused and decreased the debt over the last few years
    – Reward: High dividende with boring but necessary buisness (recession protection). It is however a slow growth with just a double in revenue over the last 10 years (so 10%/yr).
    – Catalyst: They guide only 3 % growth this year so below a normal year and they have a history of delivering. However if they return to their norm of 10% the market might like them again. They talk about china but who knows if that will work out.

  11. Congratulations to the people who made 10x or more with Adobe stocks. I never understood the business model behind and what is so special on a document printer and opener. Now, they are spending a ridiculous amount of money for a company with an unclear business model and I don’t understand again. Too risky

    1. Well it’s not just the company that owns PDFs. The Adobe Suite is the industry standard when it comes to digital art and graphics creation.

    2. Well they make photoshop and premiere – if you work in the media industry you cant go without it – every youtub video is probably cut with premiere. If you see special effects its probably done with adobe after effects. Websites with indesign. Single app payment plan(yearly price for professional use) is $400 per app or all apps for $600

  12. The fact that a human being is pumping out 10 videos over a couple days is beyond me. Cheers sven ❤

  13. “I already have it on my computer” and “just a document printer” (in the comments) means you don’t know what Adobe is doing. They’ve switched to subscription-based platform and have many tools.

    1. yes, absolutely, but that is not scalable globally deserving such a multiple. For niches sure, but…

  14. Hi Sven, been watching your videos every day for months. So thank you for doing this. Could you do an analysis on BABA please if it’s okay?

  15. Adobe is not a buy, a lot of risk, even though lots of whale investors and super investors have been buying but its not one for me and its not one for Sven

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