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  1. I bought a 230K townhome during the 2008 crash for 159K. ready to buy another during the next crash. Every crash/collapse brings with it an equivalent market chance if you are early informed and equipped, I’ve seen folks amass up to $1m amid crisis, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Unequivocally, the bubble/collapse is getting someone out there rich.

    1. I do not disagree, there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or markt condition, but such execution are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience since the 08′ crash.

    2. It is always good to have a financial plan. I work with a professional planner and fixed-income strategist in NY. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.

    3. The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, invt-advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded nearly 300%, summing up to 7-figure as of today.

    4. @Bert Vaughan Very true, people downplay planners role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license-fiduciary advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience by name Johanna Grace Jackson, I liquidated 200k of 325k from my 401k it has yield nearly 1M after subsequent investments so far.

    5. @Ruth Ward How can I join in? I will be happy growing my money while giving a few of it away to charity, giving back is as good as receiving.

  2. One thing to note is that publicly traded corporation’s earnings as a percentage of GDP are almost double the historical average.

  3. Yes it’s tricky right now, I’m holding a lot in cash in case of a crash. Also I’m more invested into stocks related to commodities. I’m missing out on the tech and AI boom but I wouldn’t feel comfortable holding them for a long time.

  4. Mislim da ste u krivu. Od 1/1/2020 ako se izuzme “Magnificent 7” S&P 500 je u plusu samo 1,3%. Sedmorka je zaslužna za 95,2% povrata, a prosječni YTD je 15%, u skoro 3 godine.

  5. Great as always! But it is worth mentioning that the FAAMNG gang which are the best in class companies (and hence their high valuations), are capturing a significant of the S&P and push the PE multiple higher. The S&P 493 has significantly lower pe multiple

    1. True! PE is around 19 for the S&P 493. An earnings yield of over 5%. Add to that a few percentage points of earnings growth, and the market outside of these seven stocks no longer seems as expensive.

  6. Hi Sven, thanks for another informative content. This time your analysis match mine almost at 99%. I have marked 3 entry level in my S&P 500 chart: if it lost 3.500 points, if it lost 2.700 points and in my worst case scenario, if it lost 2.400 points, with a baseline of 1.875, according to my projections. I’ve already sold 90% of my positions and waiting. Out of curiosity: in a previous video you’ve commented that you’re currently fully invested. I assume you’re not invested in stocks. Would you mind sharing some insight about that? I am mostly invested in Treasury right now. Thank you.

    1. This is called over confidence bias. Please find time to read on this. I was suffering from this sometime ago.

  7. 2 year treasuries is the place to be right now. I personally see a deflationary short term outcome and I have been accumulating TLT but there is a duration risk there… If I was rich I would own 90% Bills and 10% stocks waiting for the mayhem that sooner or later will arrive

  8. For comparing historical dividend yield, one should add the dividend + buybacks.
    Companies nowadays ( especially in the usa) tend to replace partially or almost totally the dividend by buybacks. The latter are more tax efficient for shareholders.

    The dividend yield of today would be much larger taking that into account.

    1. yes, but if companies did buybacks the last 20 years, then the dividend per share should be triple, and thus again high 🙂 There is something wrong in the buyback theory:-)

  9. Sven once said we should stay invested and not try to time the market. How to balance “avoiding crash” and “not timing the market”?

  10. Hi Sven! I have a question, how are the P/E ratio and interest rates related exactly? U sometimes mention that a P/E of 20 delivers a 5% return because you get a 20th of the price you pay back. Then add growth and that should be your return of the long term if all goes right, ignoring market volatility of course. Where do the interest rates come into play in this equation? What’s the difference between your returns buying at a P/E of 20 with 2% interest rates and 6%, how does one quantatively measure the difference here for example? I understand that intuitively the market prices is in higher returns if the risk-free rate rises because of the interest rates rising, but how much exactly? I hope this question is clear, thanks in advance!

  11. Calling for a “possible” crash is the same thing as saying that it may rain next week. Crashes will always come and go. We can’t predict when it’ll happen.

    As long as corporate earnings keep growing, companies keep paying out a dividend or make share buybacks, and businesses increase in value, I’ll still be invested in the market. When any of those metrics change, then I’ll start worrying.

  12. Sven, if there is a US stock market crash, does that means a chinese stock market crash to some degree as well (because the market are connected)? Or would China be unaffected and continue its course?

  13. The market is crashing up. Or the dollar although spanking other currencies booty, is losing value here in the U.S. So there’s an illusion of asset prices going up. But it’s not that. Inflation is what is really going on.

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