5 Lithium Stocks & Detailed Sector Analysis (ALB, SQM, ALTM, SGML, PLS)

I have actually looked at the leading 10 and lithium manufacturers to find out the longer term supply and need balance and as a result forecast a conservative lithium rate to utilize for lithium stock evaluation.

0:00 Lithium Supply & Need
3:59 Lithium Supply Gap
6:44 Lithium Cost Forecast
10:00 Albemarle
13:26 SQM
15:41 Arcadium
16:19 Sigma Lithium
18:16 Pilbara
19:40 My Strategy

Lithium Report

Arcadium (Livent) Video

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5 & Detailed Sector Analysis (ALB, SQM, ALTM, SGML, PLS)

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46 Comments

  1. I bought into Pilbara when it was 0.42 cents. Now it is one of the most shorted stocks in the ASX, It pays some dividends is well.

    Sven can you have a look at sodium batteries BYD is already producing cars with it. Much cheaper safer and easier to recycle it. I wonder how it will play out.

  2. I love these analysis, thank you. Deep dives into new sectors to gain some new perspectives and expand circle of competence. All knowledge is cumulative.

  3. Hey sven i saw your last vid about market guidance and i totally agree with bonds and EM strategy.
    I have to you one question or suggestion. I am also using IBRK – and they have a program for accounts with NAV of 100k 4.8% yield with no risk no trade parked there can you elaborate more how that works? Sounds like a too good to be true deal!

  4. Sven, very nice video. The difficulty I have with Lithium or Uranium or Silver or even copper is that the cycle is very much dependent on a macro scenario, inflation, interest rates, economic growth and, in the case of Lithium, the development of new technologies. It seems very difficult to derive timing.

    1. I think that you don’t have to look too much at the macro scenario, you have to focus on what is going with the specific commodity in question, which is oversupply and lower prices, regardless of the macro picture. When the lower price will touch the cost curve and drive some lithium producers out of the market, we will know it as it happens. If the producers with the highest cost start to go bankrupt, it will be a good entry point into the higher-quality ones, because the supply will go down and the undersupply will sooner or later lead to higher prices again, regardless of the macro picture.

    2. yes, it depends on the macro, but my strategy is to buy it when it is so cheap that there is only upside, then the macro adjusts in a period between a week and 5 years.

  5. Sven, thank you for your hard work. I noticed the drop from Lithum price and i was trying to do some research to see if its a good time to buy now. And then i see this video poping , like a gift from heaven. You literally justified my thinking. I hope you keep the good work and make our lives easier. I really plan to become a future member at your platform. I think you are one of the few guys that i really listen when i am making my investing plans. Thanks again πŸ™‚

  6. Excellent analysis and strategy! Other commodities that seem to deserve a detailed sector analysis are graphite and tungsten: they are both niche commodities whose production is almost monopolized by China, and are crucial respectively for the anode of batteries and for industrial production and defense.

    1. those are difficult ‘commodities’ to analyze and invest, not all commodities markets are investable, lithium is also tricky.

  7. EV growth is now faster because lithium much cheaper πŸ™‚
    i think ALB can make good free cashflow because at some point they do not need invest that much anymore.
    In addition, ALB is a very shareholder-friendly company, they have been paying dividends for over 25 years
    and the business looks extremely survivable to me, so I think that ALB will still be around in 50 years.
    If ALB makes ~5 dollars in a bad year then it’s not expensive because in a very good year it makes +20.

    1. EV price is not that much impacted by lithium, in a tesla there is 60kg of lithium, thus from $600 to $1800 bucks!
      ALB has been around for a long time

  8. Thank you, Sven. I bought Livent (LTHM, now ALTM) after your video. Lithium price is still dropping but I plan to hold for a few years . Thank you for bringing it on my radar.

  9. Nice. I always enjoy your miner / commodity videos. They just make so much sense. And while I was too late for the gold and copper cycles, I can now actually prepare to take advantage of this.

    1. I am looking at the commodities, most of them, usually twice in a decade you have a great opportunity.

  10. Great video Sven! Quick question, is it possible that when we take into effect the tendency of central banks to lower the interest rate in the near future as a possible catalyst for EVs demand and thus for Lithium price? As you showed, EV demand has somewhat stalled or even worse in western country because when debt is so pricy nobody wants to buy a car (and certainly not a pricy car), but when debt doesn’t cost much, everybody wants a new car, the new thing (in this case, EV cars). So I guess my question is, when we take into account the cyclicality of the economy (and interest rates), is it possible that the lithium market shoots before 2030?

  11. This is the video I’ve been waiting for. Dr. Sven is an EXPERT on metal commodity cycles – especially copper.

  12. Thank you Sven, I was waiting for it and appreciated.
    I am since sometimes into Pilbara and it seemed to me it is reasonably valued till the cycle picked up again in next years.

  13. Great analyses! Could you please analyse the hydrogen sector which seems to be “out of fashion” as well? Thanks for your much appreciated work πŸ‘πŸ‘πŸ‘

  14. Thanks for posting this Sven, it was most educational for me.
    My takeaway was there is far more to buying into commodities than first meets the eye.
    In short I do not have the ability to be confident to place a bet and my interest are best served by just saying no.
    Thanks for the lesson, regards Andy

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    1. Very true, people downplay planners role, until burnt by their mistakes. I remember just after my layoff early 2020 amidst covid outbreak, I needed to stay afloat, hence researched for license-fiduciary advisors. Thankfully, I came across someone of practical knowledge, and decades of experience.

    2. I don’t think I need a finance advisor. I can manage my own money and investments. I don’t want to pay someone else to tell me what to do with my hard-earned cash.

    3. A finance advisor can also provide you with objective and unbiased advice, especially when you are facing emotional or stressful situations. They can help you stay on track and avoid making impulsive decisions that can harm your financial future.

    4. @@frankmanniber6283 I used to think like you. I thought I knew enough about finance and investing to handle everything myself. But then I realized that I was spending too much time and energy on researching, analyzing, and monitoring my finances. I was also overwhelmed by the amount of information and options available. I decided to hire a finance advisor CHRIS RYAN STEWART and it was one of the best decisions I ever made. He saved me a lot of time and money, and gave me peace of mind.

    5. A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors, but over the past 2 years I’ve had an advisor who consistently restructure and diversity my portfolio and I’ve made over $4million in gains. I find myself secured financially right now.

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