Development stocks have crashed, let's see if there is value in the bathwater!
0:00 Growth Stocks
0:58 Airbnb
7:22 Spotify
13:02 Zoom
20:49 Netflix
24:13 PayPal
27:00 Threat & Reward
Pypl Stock Analysis
Netflix Stock Analysis
Netflix Ackman Update
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Paypal looks good. But it’s too large and therefore takes growth and new investors potential off the table. Let Buffett have em. Nonsensical not to use your small investor advantage.
lets keep in mind, growth doesn’t have to mean tech 🙂
absolutely!
Thats very true but most growth stocks are tech!
I unconsciously take side in the ABNB analysis since I’m myself an host and enjoy so much the service they offer to us and to the customers too. I see they have an incredible upside potential they’ll develop during time. But not investing in the stock still…
thanks for sharing!
Hey Sven! Loving the content (and the energy, seriously how are you doing it!?)
Quick few points. ABNB in the deck say the vast majority of their customers now come direct, so what you’re seeing in Google Trends is likely newer customers who eventually convert to app and thus have no need to Google ABNB anymore, just a thought – whether you believe that or not, don’t know, but it does explain the growth in revenue Vs the stagnant looking Google Trends.
Also, ABNB generated about 2bn in free cash flow last year, that’s more than Spotify from what I see on the charts you’ve pulled up, does that not mean that ABNB is as self sufficient as SPOT? Or have I missed something?
I don’t know how they calculate the FCF, there is more behind it. Thanks for sharing on Google Trends!
Text 👆👆👆…..
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. I think they’re stripping out stock-based comp. and raising debt to have the cash if my memory serves me right.
airbnb: zero profits
zoom: so much competition, and a business easily copied
spotify: very poor fcf generated and it can continue in this way for several years
netflix: bad business, so much competition, so much capital required to remain competitive
pay pal: low competitive advantages, average quality of management, very strong competitors
growth is just a component in the equation of DCF……growth by itself does not guarantee long term value for shareholders.
thanks for sharing!
Great content! Thank you Sven for all the work.
thanks!
Your take on frictionless payment is very compelling and makes me think twice about any stock in the payments business. Could you take a look at VISA, Mastercard, and AMEX and apply the similar analysis? They have been charging the same 3% since forever. Is their future now in doubt?
too expensive for me!
Is there future now in doubt? I don’t think so. They have a moat. Money transfers is very sensitive as national govts. do not want their money going abroad for something so simple and they are beholden to a foreign company. India I think has even blocked one of them and use their own system. But international transfers or countries which are friends with the US, they are entrenched. But are not as innovative as Paypal or Wise for example.
Thank you so much Sven, I still remember the day that I request you to make an analysis on Spotify damn time flew so fast. Anyway I will follow your advice on this as interest rate might rise the stock will likely go down who knows perhaps we both can buy at a more attractive price. Big fan from Malaysia.
🙂
The way you explain the risks is simple yet amazing! By far the best investing content on Youtube. Also the market cap drop on such super famous companies shows how speculative the market can be, and a beautiful lesson for us. I bought Paypal at 170 and their last earnings call definitely gave me a lesson to remember…
Appreciate it!
Hello Sven, thank you as always for your great content. I was wondering: is investing in Africa worth considering? Could there be opportunities for a diversification outside eu/us? Maybe it could be an interesting topic for a video! Have a great day
I recently looked at Africa Airtel, still a bit expensive, but it all depends on the price!
I love the daily videos, Sven! In this time of such massive volatility I am so grateful to hear your insights!
happy to hear that!
Hello Sven, most investment companies suggest to diversify in a breakdown of x% for different industries. Do you believe that following these guidelines make sense?
no! It is absolutely STUPID!
I recently started reading “The Dao of Capital” on your recommendation, and so far really enjoy the book.
One thing that I found very interesting, is that in the chapter on Böhm-Bawerk and time-preference, the author mentions that the discount rate in later years should be reduced rather than a “uniform discount on future utility”.
Do you think this should be applied in stock valuations? Should the added discount of later years be lower?
that is a good point and yes, if you reduce, you get more comparable measures!
enjoy the read!
that is why I use a terminal value!
Hi Sven, thanks for your great videos. Would love to see unity. They are in a oligopoly with unreal, they are the number 1 in gaming and vr, they grow beyond gaming, and you don’t have the risk like with a normal gaming publisher witch are depending on a hit
Thanks for sharing!
For Pypl you can keep in mind with Inflation they will earn more as they charge a percentage of the paid price
thanks for sharing!
I use PayPal quite a lot, its convenient, i also like under armour, stock is down a lot, good brand, worth looking into
thanks for sharing!
Another great video. Im bullish on and have a small position. I agree they have a lot of competition, but I think they will be the leader because they are more focused on building a strong host/guest network and they have a real strategy around it versus VRBO (for example) which only gets a paragraph in Expedia’s 10-k.
thanks for sharing!
Zoom is competing with MS and Google, both have their meeting component in the suite, so I don’t think Zoom can continue growing