10 Europe Stocks (Just Eat, ISS, Vonovia, Euronext, Basf) Part 2

10 European Stocks Part 2 – We have Simply Eat Takeaway, ISS, Vonovia, Euronext and Basf.

0:00 Just Consume Takeaway
5:06 ISS
7:49 Vonovia
12:39 Euronext
15:01 Basf

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10 Europe Stocks (Just Eat, ISS, Vonovia, Euronext, Basf) Part 2

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30 Comments

  1. Thanks, analysis are always appreciated.
    My top European buys are: (with my thoughts)
    – Evolution AB (niche market dominator of highest quality, not dependent on economy)
    – Playway SA (insanely efficient business model, growth and price – and the analysts are wrong)
    – Mobruk SA (continued success guaranteed by EU laws, market misunderstands reports)
    Also interesting IMHO:
    – Flex LNG (still! Without them Europe goes dark and they just locked in great long term contracts)
    – KID ASA (very cheap good business, and Norway demand should hold up better than elsewhere due to oil wealth)
    – Stellantis 😛 (priced for bankruptcy but $22B cash on hand)

    1. Do you have any insights to why the high prices Mo-Bruk is able to demand for their waste services isn’t going to revert at some point? I get the investment thesis, but as I’m completely lacking any insights into to the pricing dynamics of polish waste management, it sounds very risky to me to place a bet here. If the price goes down, what would I do? I’m simply not able to come to any sensible conclusion whether any price drop has been justified or not

    2. @MrGrunz Poland did not have many recyckling factories and EU wants Poland to recyckle instead of just landfill the garbages. It is a risk, but imo unlikely as Poland need to have more factories to satysify EU, and it is very difficult fom legal point to get new factoies to be built
      Long Playway and Mobruk, both awesome companies

    3. @Damian Mysciak yes! Hard to imagine that the EU will allow Poland to revert back to it’s old landfill strategies. And there’s not a lot of companies in Poland that both have the permits and the facilities to deal with it…
      A takeover bid by a big player is possible, maybe easier for them to buy the company (200 million € with a premium) instead of applying for permits (takes years) and building new facilities (takes years, you get angry people who don’t want to see those plants near them, etc.).

    4. Playway SA is dropping from WIG40 to WIG80 index this month, I wonder if this will result in sell out so I can pick up some shares

  2. Regarding Venovia, or german real estate in general, investors have to keep in mind, that we have currently a “leftish” government. High rents are an upcoming issue discussed here in germany. And two of parties currently in power ( SPD and Greens) always promoted some sort of pricecontrols for rents and conviscation of corporate owned realEstate.
    Personally, I believe there is for sure the risk of some sort of “socialist-like” interventions. BUT, as a believer in cronyism, I am pretty sure, that corporations will get golden compansations or profit in some other way from our leftish governments decissions.

  3. I don’t have any European stock apart from Novo Nordisk – I have a sentimental connection to it, since it was the very first stock that I bought years and years ago. I don’t think I would ever become a millionaire for owning it, but its performance has been solid over the years.

    1. Remebered bought novo at 33 dlr stock what a wonderful bussines, 250% return but now Is very expensive.

  4. You’ve covered a lot of industries, not so much of banking though. Any thoughts on BNP, INGA, ISP, etc? That’s one industry that, in theory, should be more resilient to the macroeconomic environment ahead – that is, IF they set their balance sheet accordingly.

    I always try to keep some exposure to Europe because I plan on coming back one day, but that just keeps getting harder and harder!

  5. Was exciting video to watch! would just like to add regarding vonovia that it’s real estate is priced about 50% under non obligated market price real estate because it has “protected” tenents in a major portion of it’s real estate. The only way for it’s real estate and it’s rent to move higher substantially is throught inflation. I think that if it won’t go bust because of a repeat of 2008 in europe or won’t be able to refinance (although it could always stop paying dividened and pay debt which increase share holders equity), the rent will grow and it seems like buying the equity in 50% discount :))
    * Additionally for non europeans the euro allows another 8% discount depends where you are from.
    All the bests!

  6. BASF – What I observed in the last reports from BASF is that they seem to be very good at passing on the inflation to the customer – in Q1 volume was flat but revenue grew by 20 percent compared to 2021.
    Unilever – I think the current CEO is not much better than the previous one, think about the crazy attempt to buy consumer division from Glaxo, discussing the purpose of mayonaise and other things instead of improving the business
    Vonovia – I think the can manage the debt by selling a bit more apartments than normally which is what they reported in Q1, until the debt is lower. I feel like it has a good moat as people need to live somewhere no matter what. Also you didn’t mention all the political crazyness in Germany last year or two with calls to nationalize the housing from these companies

  7. I’ve looked at JET before, and I’m a GH customer. GH is a distant 3rd in America and JET has talked about selling it off with pressure from investors to do so (and delisted GRUB). They are far more prevalent in Europe than here. Not sure about GH specifically, but neither DASH nor UBER have made any money – despite having the perfect set up with the pandemic, they’re still burning venture capital in a Sun sized furnace (at least they were the last time I looked which was months ago).

  8. Thanks Sven! I think BASF is an excellent company and this moment of high energy price will not last forever. I will keep monitoring the developments and strike when the price goes a bit lower. The other companies seem too risky in any case.

    1. I’m not so sure about that. I like the business in a normal economy. But I don’t see any solution of the energy problem in the near future. Even if the war in Ukraine ends, the Western world will stay away from Russian oil and gas. Becoming independent for energy at a reasonable cost, is very far away. Even if prices come down, energy suppliers will try to benefit from high prices as long as possible. That will affect the consumer, but also companies like BASF.

  9. “I’m sorry for such a bad conclusion….” We say “no” to way more investments than we say “yes” but the process of digging makes us better prepared to look into the next opportunities!

  10. Great video ! I like the one million question concept. Indeed i was thinking about following European stocks : Amundi , Solvay, BESI, Prosus, Roche Holding, Nestlet, Michelin

  11. Hi. I’m not optimistic regarding the eurozone but maybe another point should me mentioned: euro weakness will help exports to other geographies. This might balance the surge in production costs. Moreover, some European multinationals have factories/production abroad (asia, americas), so costs should be mitigated. I can’t see the ECB hiking rates that much and for long. The ECB will try to free ride the FED efforts to bring commodity prices down. What about eurozone multinationals that report in euros, have manufacturing in Asia, and sell to diversified geographies? Maybe the market will punish them because they’re listed in Germany/eurozone but the production is abroad and big % sales are abroad (e.g Adidas). The sales in dollars will translate to a lot more euros now and the costs are in Asia.

  12. In the previous video you asked to pitch other (European) companies, so here is one I like: Mo-Bruk (MBR on the Warsaw exchange), a Polish waste management (very unsexy business) which is an industry that isn’t easy to start up (you need facilities, but also permits). When the Polish government has a project they can sign up for, they usually are one of the 2 (or sometimes the only) company entering. Besides that, they almost have no debt, the dividend is very attractive, the company has been growing steadily , there’s no dilution since 2016 when they did a capital injection). It can be taken over by a foreign competitor because it might be easier to buy a small cap company (around 210 million € at the time of this video) than to apply for permits (takes years), build factories (takes years, costs a lot of money, you get angry people because they don’t want waste management next door, etc.). Poland has a higher growth rate than western Europe, it has to apply to waste norms by the EU, so Mo-Bruk has opportunities to grow (for now they are concentrated in southern Poland but want to expand to the north, maybe abroad too).

  13. Wonderful video. You always deliver great content. As a Dane i love that you covered ISS. I would love it if you made a walk through the danish C25 index of stocks. We have some great companies. DSV, Novo Nordisk, Mærsk come to mind. I hope you will have a look at it. I will keep watching 😉 cheers from Denmark 🇩🇰

  14. Infineon Tech is also getting cheaper, with a FW PE of ~12. Not a wide moat bussines as ASML (different bussiness), but an european alternative in semiconductor industry. Long established history, as Texas Instruments.

  15. Hello Sven really like your work, could you do an analysis on SIFgroup? They build foundations for windmills (and more) and I think they play a key part in the energy transition. Nothing special now, but i think groth ahead even during a possible recession because of green eu subsidies.

  16. About Vonovia. Even I was a genius 10 years ago when I visited Berlin. I saw real estate ads on the windows and one room 30m2 apartments cost 30k euros and even I was thinking that the price is crazy cheap( loved the city btw 😉 ). My own same size crappy rent apartment in Helsinki was sold for 120k euros at the same time.

  17. For basf, check the price of the “ice dutch ttf natural gas”. They already experienced high prices during the first quarter.

  18. BASF has a direct pipeline from Russia for natural gas (50% of its energy consumption is dependant on this). If Russia turna off the gas, the factory will close the next day and 39.000 people will lose jobs in main factory Ludwigshafen in Germany.

    So a very big risk.

    If they decrease or cut the dividend, stock price will plunge heavily.

    So another big risk there.

    BASF is probably the riskiest stock on this list as of today.

  19. Hi Sven, in Europe I am holding GTT which has a patent moat giving it some crazy return on capital and more recently (after they bought my Coima shares 😔😔) in MONCLER: I believe it has a brand moat, very good return on capital and healthy balance sheet. What do you think about them?

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